Poll: Most Say Months Before Oil Stops Spewing

By: Brian Montopoli
Topics: Polling ,; Domestic Issues

(Credit: CBS)

Americans are pessimistic that BP will be able to stop the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico anytime soon, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds, with fewer than one in five expecting BP to cap the well within a month.

Sixty-four percent say oil will be spewing into the Gulf for at least several more months, including 16 percent who expect the leak to continue for a year or longer. Another seven percent believe the well will never be capped.

President Obama said last week he expects BP to be capturing "up to 90 percent" of the leaking oil "in the coming weeks and days."

Americans living in the Gulf coast region are even more pessimistic than Americans overall, with 22 percent expecting the leak to continue for a year or more and 11 percent saying it will never be capped.

Most do expect the Gulf's economy and environment to recover, however.

Seventy-nine percent say the Gulf economy will eventually recover, including 72 percent of Gulf coast residents. Seventeen percent (including 22 percent in the region) say the Gulf economy may never recover.

Two in three Americans, meanwhile, expect the Gulf environment to recover, while 29 percent say it may never recover. Gulf coast residents are slightly more optimistic about environmental recovery than Americans overall.

The full CBS News/New York Times poll on the Gulf oil spill will be released at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

Read the Poll (PDF)

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,259 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone June 16-20, 2010. Phone numbers were dialed from random digit dial samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

An oversample of residents in coastal counties of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi was conducted for this poll, for a total of 318 interviews. The results were then weighted in proportion to the adult population. The margin of error for the sample of these Gulf Coast residents is six points. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Brian Montopoli
Brian Montopoli is the senior political reporter at CBSNews.com.
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by gaetanomarano June 23, 2010 5:33 AM EDT: .
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now all the Press seem less interested to talk about this problem... the oil spill's news are no longer in the Google News main page... BP (as always) doesn't listen nor answer to anyone... and, at 100,000 barrels per day, the BP wellhead will gush over 250,000,000 gallons in the next TWO months, until BP will finish the drilling of the relief wells that (if lucky) "should" solve the problem within mid-august... personally, I'm thinking to stop to update my article with further new ideas (that I have) to solve the oil spill issue and to "wash" the ocean and the shores (without toxic dispersants) since it's completely useless to talk (and suggest the right things) if no one (not BP nor the Press) listen you... :[
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however, my past ideas are here: http://******/c8y9GX
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by raydernation June 21, 2010 7:13 PM EDT: All this non sense about Washington dragging its feet is insanity. Theres nothing they can do, but what they're doing now. And thats applying constant pressure on them. You would have to be a complete idiot to think if America had the ability to cap wells and fix leaks, after the first drop surfaced, they would have been on it.

The other part of this and we forget, is the logistics involved in this. The main, primary reason why this is taking so long is that where that well is dug, its 5000 ft below the surface. 1 mile down, you're talking tremendous pressure, form the water itself. Pressure that would cave a humans body in. Water currents that are so powerful, they knocked that 100 ton dome over that they first tried like a toothpick. Plus the oil coming out that well is coming out with such force and pressure nothing will be able to stop it but that parralel relief well they're drilling now. You see what it did when they injected 40 tons of concrete and mud into that well head. It blew that stuff right back out like it was feathers. Deep sea drilling is al ways dangerous and iffy. If this would have been on a normal rig about 500 ft down, this would be over by now, been over. There would have been leakage, but no where near what it is now.

Another thing what they're not telling you is, eventually, all that oil is going to hit all the 7 seas Worldwide. One wag on here said that oil should never have reached shore. How are they gonna stop that from happening? You can't comprehend how much oil is shooting out that well head. That gulf floor is done by now, its toast, theres no more living organisms down there. Plus all that methane gas thats building and leaking, which sucks up all the oxygen, which means pretty soon, you're going to see the carcasses of thousands and thousands of fish and birds. I hate to say it my friends, but, this is going to have an affect on not only the gulf, but the whole World for the next 1000 yrs. By than, hopefully, well actually technology will be such, that they maybe able to clean up a great deal of that oil, even if it will be covered with a lot of silt and mud. But right now in the present, fasten your seat belts because it will hit Florida, it will eventually get out into the Atlantic, and unfortunately the pristine beaches of the Carribean islands will never be the same. Thats why l always say, humans will never last as long as the dinosaurs, they lasted 250 million yrs. We've been here about 3 million, l doubt if we will make it to 4 million yrws, we're not good tenats of the Earth, we've fu**ed it up. Completly raped it. Even though we have the advantage of logic and intellect, whereas the dinosaurs were instincual creatures, that advantage we have as you can see can't save us, instead its gonna kill us all because of those dead presidents in your pocket, and the quest by some greedy a z z ho le s to get more than others. Wonder what the next species is gonna look like after we (humans) check out of here?; Reply to this comment

by voxpopulus June 21, 2010 6:31 PM EDT

I didn't know America has so many engineers.

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by stourleyk June 23, 2010 1:26 PM EDT: My sentiments exactly, Voxpopulus. (Hey, come to think of it, your comment is rather ironic given your screen name...)

by raggedyANGI June 21, 2010 5:18 PM EDT

They will never cap the leak. The oil is going to kill 1/3 of all sea life on the globe and make the other 2/3 unfit for consumption. The magma is going to erupt and cause more poison gas in the air, and there will be a Tsunami wave 200 feet high that will wipe out all population on the gulf coast. There will be no safe seafood for 100 years, and the ... See Morelucky ones who listen and get off the coast before this thing blows will have to start over elsewhere. A relative of mine has been a scientist with the government (OSHA) since the early 70s and he knows things. This happened because the government is up to their necks in oil stock, and turned their heads to the cutting of corners and the unsafe drilling that put more money in their pockets. Someone PLEASE go to Alaska to the biggest oil rig there run by BP before this happens again.

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by Skruffy1 June 21, 2010 5:44 PM EDT: THAT sure makes a lot of (non)sense...


by dadirt June 21, 2010 4:54 PM EDT: Who cares about what a poll thinks! Will it stop the leak. WE don't need polls, we need full action and it should hae been balls out from DAY 1. BP is pouring billions out while washington is stil dragging it's feet! This oil should have never hit land. Instead, washington and fearless leader draggedhis feet to make the spill a crisis by letting the spill expand in size. Fortunately it has backfired on the boys. Maybe some day the news media will investigate that!; Reply to this comment


by ChangeClothez June 21, 2010 4:48 PM EDT: Being an engineer I know it's going to be a mess until at least August...at least...the technology to go down there AFTER the fact is just so limited...

In the meantime, if you would like to HELP the people and eco-system in the Gulf you can donate and get a great shirt here http://******/bOlkF3; Reply to this comment


by Skruffy1 June 21, 2010 4:47 PM EDT: Isn't it a little stupid to conduct a poll asking how long it will take to stop the gusher? Correction... more than a LITTLE stupid.; Reply to this comment

by wfw3536 June 21, 2010 4:23 PM EDT

So when is Obama going to stop being controlled by the unions and allow 100's of foreign skimmer ships in the gulf. What a shame, here we are in 60 days and Obama is doing nothing to help out the poor folks in the gulf.

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by wjksea June 21, 2010 7:16 PM EDT: When is the United States constitution going to be abolished so this nation get down to being run like a multinational business?


by stourleyk June 23, 2010 1:30 PM EDT: Allowing oil companies to drill without permits and allowing them to fill in their own safety reports- sounds like we've already been running the government like a multinational business, wjksea.


by DaveShoe June 21, 2010 4:12 PM EDT: I am really getting tired of hearing how "up to 90 percent" of the oil will be captured from the ongoing gusher by the end of the month, as if this is a good thing. I'd much rather hear the more realistic statement that at least 10 percent of the oil will still be gushing into the Gulf.

It is my opinion that one relief well cannot stop the flow of oil. The mud cannot be made sufficiently heavy to counteract the immense 22,000 PSI oil pressure at the base of the damaged well column, and all injected mud and metal weights will simply be ejected straight out the top of the damaged well by the gushing oil, probably falling back onto the well after ejection and damaging the well further.

A second relief well, should it intersect the damaged well column below the the first relief well, can provide pressure bleed-off, potentially cutting the oil pressure in the damaged well column to around 11,000 PSI, and potentially allowing mud injected into the first relief well to stop the flow of oil in the damaged well, assuming sufficient heavy metal weights can be injected in with the mud. Unfortunately, more than 3000 tons of metal weights must be in the column at one time for this to occur, and I don't believe they can be injected with the mud in the couple minutes available to accomplish this task.

The solution seems to rest in either letting the well bleed out (this is the bad option), or clamping a custom made high-pressure valved cap to the top of the damaged well that actually plugs the well (this is the preferred option) rather than just acting as a siphon to a surface ship. I do wish BP would explain why their leaky siphons are preferred over a cap with a closeable valve that blocks flow from the well.; Reply to this comment

by dadirt June 21, 2010 3:47 PM EDT

Another poll, maybe they ought to use polsters to fil the leak along with the lawyers and politians. Polls don't do anything neither do politians. Obama lives by them, and that is why theyare so far behind the 8-ball on every issue except for doing opposite of what the majority of the people int he US want or need.

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by bobnjersey June 21, 2010 4:17 PM EDT: [Polls don't do anything neither do politians. Obama lives by them, and that is why theyare so far behind the 8-ball on every issue except for doing opposite of what the majority of the people int he US want or need.]

oh the ignorance is just staggering.

go look up a guy by the name of frank luntz ... has worked for decades now as a republican strategist and pollster. he specializes in word level granularity ... and measures people's responses to phrases, speeches, words, or any other political messsage. he's been doing this for republicans so that they can 'tailor' their message so that the statements are stated as the audience they're trying to reach would like to hear it.

so ... gwb claimed they didn't look at polls ... but they actually had frank luntz doing word level granularity focus groups to see what people liked and didn't ... then they changed their message to align w/ what people just wanted to hear.