How Did Sen. Blanche Lincoln Pull Victory From the Jaws of Defeat?

AP

How did Sen. Blanche Lincoln pull victory from the jaws of defeat? As of Tuesday morning, her top consultants were privately predicting a loss. But Lincoln closed stronger than she thought. A last-minute campaign visit from Bill Clinton, along with radio ads from President Obama, energized the African American vote in key precincts. Across the state, Lincoln did better in almost every county compared to her performance in last month's go-round.

Inevitably, the $10 million that labor unions spent to teach Lincoln a lesson will be seen as wasted money by Democrats in Washington, who wonder whether the expenditures were worth it. Labor's interests were parochial: don't take us for granted, or we'll come after you, even in a state with low union density. And it is somewhat remarkable that a Southern Democrat nearly lost to a challenger who generally ran to her left.

So unions wanted to make an example out of Lincoln, and they made their point. Democrats are still going to have trouble in the fall; the White House is going to have some tough conversations with its labor allies about spending, and the financial regulatory bill -- Lincoln is a key player -- is not going to be much effected.

The same Democrats who privately predicted a Lincoln loss are now privately dismissing any chance she has of winning the general election in November. Based on their track record, maybe we should wait a few weeks and see how the state's voters reorient themselves.

The fact that Lt. Gov. Bill Halter forced Lincoln into a run-off should have been the end of Lincoln. That it wasn't says something about the weirdness of the race. Labor welcomed the opportunity for the race to become a referendum on their priorities, but apparently, enough voters in Arkansas didn't like being used as proxies in a larger fight for the soul of the Democratic Party.

More CBSNews.com Coverage of Tuesday's Primaries:

Winners: Blanche Lincoln | Nikki Haley | Meg Whitman | Carly Fiorina | Sharron Angle | Roundup
Anthony Salvanto: What's Next for the Big Primary Winners?
Jeff Greenfield: California Vote to Alter Primaries Could Have Huge Impact
Bob Schieffer: Money and Melodrama Shape Primaries
Women Win Big on Primary Day
Interactive Map: CBS News Campaign 2010 Race Ratings

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The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder is CBS News' chief political consultant. You can read more of his posts in Hotsheet here. You can also follow him on Twitter.

[thebob-bob]

This doesn't make sense. If Obama is the radical Socialist the rightwing nutcases and FOX wants you to believe he is then why wouldn't those oft-cursed freedom-hating Unions be doing his bidding.

I guess that the rightwing nutcases and FOX are just so full of it their heads have exploded, PHfsttt!

[msjb1]

shes just the lesser of two evils well at least the unions spent some of the money they saved on health care don't worry obama will give them a bailout to help the loss, you know they are too big to fail, get in that back room and figure out a plan dems

[Perish1]

The unions say that they are not in the pockets of the Democrats. Oh, yeah, how much money did they spend in the Republicans race?

[raydar2]

The United States is a Republic which means our country is based on individual rights and equal justice not collective rights and social justice. Democracy is how we appoint our government.

[Scola2]

Rome was a Republic. In fact it was the archetype of the republic as a form of government. Rome certainly did not have much in the way of individual rights or equal justice. It had slavery as well as a clear distinction between plebeians and patricians.

A republic is a form of government and a subset of democracies. The term republic denotes the difference between a representative and a direct democracy. The term democracy indicates the laws derive from popular consent, direct or indirect, without a monarch or other privileged ruler. While the US is a Republic, one might argue with the initiative processes and such, some of its states, particularly on the west coast, are not so clearly republics in structure.

In short, your statement is garbage. Republic, direct democracy, autocracy, absolute monarchy, constitutional monarchy, etc. are all forms of government and have nothing to do with individual rights or equal justice. You could have a Republic that is very interest in social justice. Finland is a great example. You could an autocratic state that respects individual rights and social justice. Hong Kong is a great example of that. There is, at best, a weak link between the two.

[raydar2]

Talk about garbage yours is all babble. As our founding fathers stated are we a republic or not? AS THEY STATED not as you want to argue.

[raydar2]

What I dont understand is where does the unions get the money with their health care unfunded and their pension broke. oh yea that is right they want us to pay for it.

[soapyrub]

I'm an old, retired Colorado homebuilder and love watching our Democracy at work. I know that although everbody says Arkansas is a red state, I know from visiting there, they have some good and smart folks. Lincoln vascillated on the public option and probably is the main one who killed it but she did vote for health care, which showed moral courage, in the face of a raging t party. I sleep so much better ever since I became an activist and supported President Obama. I knew the right wing hatemongers would explode simply because of my family. I love 'em all despite my parents and big bro being flaming bigots - now loyal tbags. Still have great bar-b-ques but skirt the real issues because civility breaks down and rage looms when the hot button is pushed.

I pride myself on being a "radical centris", but they can't even handle this:

Americans are confused and conflicted, polls show, about ?Obamacare?. Recent polls show that a majority want to ?gamble? and just give it a chance. News junkies like me know that there are many conflicting news reports and opinion pieces ? mostly written by those pushing a political agenda. Wouldn?t it be wonderful if we could just find a trusted, non-partisan research group that would study the darn thing and give us some straight answers we could believe in?
Well, this morning my dream came true. News I have been waiting for. One of the country?s most respected think-tanks, the RAND Corporation ( http://www.rand.org/ ), has just completed an exhaustive study of 2000+ health reform policy scenarios. The conclusion (drum roll please):
?The new U.S. health care reform law was the best option for providing health insurance to the largest number of people while keeping federal government costs as low as possible.?

[raydar2]

and rand gets their funding from the government and you say their are bias. They started as part of the US Air force.

[Scola2]

akcoins: Unions may have been a part of the Democratic coalition which elected Obama, but they don't own it. I am a young professional who wants nothing to do with unions. People like myself came out in huge numbers both in the primaries and in the general election. Unions are an old and diminishing part of the Democratic coalition. Many backed Hillary Clinton in the primary.

I don't agree with Lincoln on every issue. However, I'm very happy she won. It tells the union bosses they don't own my party anymore.

[freepress6]

She'll win in November if Bill Clinton comes back to Arkansas to campaign for her again. Sterling Greenwood/AspenFreePress

[akcoins]

Between Bill Clinton and Obama stabbing the unions who helped get them elected in the back, and the election official closing 95% of the voting booths in Halter leaning areas, it slap in the face of working class people. Blanche Lincoln is more of a Con than a Lib. This is not the Obama I voted for.

[annabee123123]

Blanche Lincoln will win in the fall. Boozman is no outsider--he has been in congress nine years and has done nothing that I know of. Those of us living outside his district have barely heard his name. The reason he is up in the polls is because he has no negatives. Go Democrats!!