The Battle Begins for 2012 GOP Contenders

CBS

Every four years, in between presidential elections, conservative activists gather to take stock of some of the most prominent names in the Republican Party -- and consider which of them has what it takes for a successful run for the White House.

That gathering, the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, takes place this Thursday through Saturday in New Orleans. Among the speakers will be Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Bobby Jindal, Michael Steele, and Sarah Palin, whose speech will be closely watched for signs as to whether the former Alaska governor is serious about a presidential run or is opting instead a lucrative media career.

Notably absent, oddly enough, will be the only two prominent Republicans who have been doing the most staff hiring, fundraising, travel and networking to lay the groundwork for a 2012 run: Former Massachusetts governor and 2008 GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, who has elected to continue his book tour instead of coming to the conference, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who pulled out in order to attend a welcome home ceremony for members of the armed forces.

Both men are widely expected to jump in the race, but both have their liabilities. While Romney has worked hard to establish his conservative credentials after taking moderate positions on some issues as Massachusetts governor, some on the right continue to be skeptical of him. And the passage of a health care reform package that looks a lot like the health care bill Romney signed into law in Massachusetts has had the ex-governor straining to make the case that the Massachusetts model has legitimate differences with what conservatives derisively call "ObamaCare."

Pawlenty, meanwhile, is unknown to most Americans. While he has been making all the right moves to prepare for a presidential run, including raising money for and endorsing anti-spending Republican candidates, he has not come close to capturing the imagination of the GOP faithful. Perhaps in an effort to break through and generate a little buzz -- and also draw a distinction with Romney -- Pawlenty is pushing a lawsuit to overturn the health care bill. (He's also not skipping the conference entirely -- organizers tell Hotsheet he plans to send in a video address for the event.)

The current landscape means that many conservatives are hoping that a plausible alternative to Pawlenty and Romney emerges in the coming months -- perhaps spurred by a winning speech at the conference seen by many as the unofficial kickoff to primary campaign season.

Palin, seemingly the brightest light in the GOP, remains a polarizing figure who many Republicans believe could not win in a general election; she has also laid little groundwork for a presidential run. The activists gathered at the conference will be looking for signs that the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee is interested in a run and willing to do the necessary hard work to win -- or if she seems content to focus on her burgeoning media career, including her planned television show, "Sarah Palin's Alaska."

AP

Jindal, the Louisiana governor, has steadily climbed back into the good graces of the GOP ran-and-file despite a disastrous response to President Obama's address to a joint session of Congress in February of last year. But his appearance may be more about continuing to build up goodwill than an attempt to set up a run that could be seen as premature.

Gingrich, meanwhile, seems an ever-present part of the presidential speculation who enjoys his image as an ideas man and elder statesman in the party. The former House speaker has said repeatedly he is considering a run -- though many GOP insiders believe Gingrich, who has past personal issues that would come under scrutiny if he were to enter the race, is simply trying to keep up his public profile and speaking fees.

Paul, of course, is a libertarian-leaning Republican who could well duplicate his 2008 run, but he is seen as a candidate with passionate but limited appeal within the party. Paul won the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference in February, though critics were quick to point out that the respondents were not necessarily representative of the GOP as a whole.

As for Steele, no one expects a presidential run from the Republican National Committee chair. But the speech is important regardless, since Steele has come under fire after a string of scandals, including, most recently, revelations that the committee paid a nearly $2,000 reimbursement for a group of young donors to enjoy a night out at a bondage-themed nightclub.

Could a New Report Spell More Trouble for the RNC?
Money Flows into RNC, but Steele Still Hounded

Steele will be looking to convince activists that he is not running a free-spending organization and convince them to continue donating to the RNC -- and to not forsake the organization in favor of a shadow RNC group called American Crossroads or direct their donations primarily to candidates or campaign committees.

That brings us to the lesser-known speakers, some of whom are plausible candidates to eventually emerge their party's standard bearer. (Keep in mind, most Americans didn't know much about Barack Obama back in 2006.) Among them are Rep. Mike Pence, the House Republican Conference Chairman from Indiana who calls himself "a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order." Pence has been traveling the nation, ostensibly to help House Republicans raise money. But the trips have driven speculation that he's been testing the waters for a 2012 run, possibly with the backing of many in the Tea Party movement.

Also speaking is former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who Pennsylvania political scientists G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young say may be laying the groundwork for push for the nomination; so is Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, the head of the Republican Governors Association, who has notably declined to shut the door on a run.

One key question going into the conference is what rhetoric Republicans will offer when it comes to the health care bill. While anger in the base has driven a push for repeal, many GOP lawmakers see risks of voter backlash in such an effort; the comments at the conference could set the tone for the GOP message on the bill going into the midterm elections. (One message now being floated is "repeal and replace" -- which comes with the implicit promise that the more popular of the bill's provisions, like bans on turning people away for pre-existing conditions, would not be eliminated if Republicans attain enough power to be able to repeal the bill.)

After listening to the speakers, attendees at the conference will vote in the straw poll; if Romney wins despite not attending (or comes in second behind Paul) it will be taken as a sign of his strength. But it's worth noting that the winner of the 2006 straw poll, Sen. Bill Frist, never even entered the 2008 race.

A victory by a more below-the-radar lawmaker such as Pence could help generate buzz and establish him as a strong alternative to Romney and Pawlenty.

On the flip side, a particularly poor performance would be taken as a sign that a candidate has little institutional support -- a fate Palin, who came in a distant third at the CPAC straw poll, will want to avoid if she is ultimately interested in taking the plunge.

Tom Coburn Knocks Fox News, Says Nancy Pelosi is a "Nice Person"

Watch Brian Montopoli discuss his story on CBSNews.com's politics Web show "Washington Unplugged":

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[richardtapp]

We finally have someone who will actually obey the Constitution and limit the federal governments invasion upon your person and property, and you would vote for someone else?

Our vote is for RON PAUL.

American Patriot Party.CC

[airjackie]

The circus clowns adding their names to the candidate for President continues. Other then the above names Rand Paul is interesting in running for President after less then one month as a Senator. He said he might run and could win. Asked about his Dad Ron, Rand said his Father could be his Vice President. The nutters are running wild and even Crazy Michele Bachmann thinks someone would vote for her. DeMint saw Sarah as a leader and accepted the second spot as her VP but now with Sarah out it seems DeMint wants to run.

[Kdub519]

Ron Paul Revolution
Legalize the Constitution

[Kdub519]

Ron Paul Revolution 2012!!
End the Fed!
Abolish the New World Order!
Restore the Republic!
Legalize Freedom!
Ron Paul for President 2012!!!

[jsknow]

Why not Sarah Palin? Look at just a few of the problems she already has. Vote for RON PAUL, he has a long proven record that is impeccable!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jjz7n4q7TBM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeMypXCUWMw&feature=fvw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2OUJ8ZUTiI&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nokTjEdaUGg&NR=1&feature=fvwp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRkWebP2Q0Y&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrzXLYA_e6E&feature=channel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWZHTJsR4Bc&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNQLBSHckQ8&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPqbir2Y92o&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avnJIQbZ6QI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3iQdGtxBJs&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0A3Xa09eGg&feature=related

[jsknow]

Take a look at President Obama and just some of the controversy surrounding him in his short term as a politician. Vote for a man you can trust! His name is RON PAUL!
Barack Obama: 7 Lies In Under 2 Minutes and other ?greatest? moments
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UErR7i2onW0&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAQit50zKhU&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmWYIxfZr_w&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hi-V_ilJu0w&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2o2fKbLJc8&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mB346Xzm3oQ&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QdyLOUHz-A&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYdk26ezVio&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9fCITIyyo4&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw

[jsknow]

No other candidate has the record, experience and the standards of Ron Paul. He weighs everything he does by the Constitution and no matter how popular a piece of legislation may be, he will not vote for it unless he believes it?s legal according to the Constitution and that the Constitution gives the federal government the authority to govern on that issue.

The man is a medical Dr. and yet he knows more about the Constitution, financial matters, both domestic and foreign policy and political history than anyone in the federal government that I know of. There is far too much good to say about this man to type it all here.

He?s attacked in the media for many reasons. NONE OF THEM ARE VALID! He can?t be bought, he is not a member of the bought and paid for club ( with many members in both parties), that have this country on the fast track to destruction. Look at the picture of him displayed in this article. Do you think it?s the best picture CBS could have posted? The media does everything they can to make him look bad. Go back and watch the 2008 debates, hind sight is 20-20, he was right then and his platform has not changed. The media was very obvious in their bias and unwarranted attacks on him. Just FYI CBS and others in the media, we the people have learned to see past your bias and we are learning why you are bias. We?re educating ourselves through information sources other than the mainstream media. We are learning the truth and we will vote accordingly.

I challenge everyone reading this to go to youtube.com and search for Ron Paul. Listen to what he says from his own mouth instead of what others are saying about him. Find a Ron Paul scandal that has any merit if you can. Look at his supporters holding signs that say ? Google Ron Paul?. Most politicians would cringe if you Google their name because they have so many skeletons in their closet and a long record of governing contrary to the will of the people and the Constitution.

Ron Paul has NEVER voted to raise taxes, NEVER voted for an unbalanced budget, NEVER voted for a restriction on gun ownership, NEVER taken a government paid junket, NEVER voted to increase the power of the executive branch. He voted AGAINST the so called Patriot Act. He voted AGAINST regulating the internet. He voted AGAINST the war in Iraq. He does not participate in the lucrative congressional pension program. He returns a portion of his annual congressional office budget to the U.S. Treasury EVERY YEAR.

There is a reason they call him ? Dr. No? in Congress, he won?t go along with the unconstitutional waste, loss of rights and freedoms, nation building, unconstitutional wars and host of other actions that are contrary to the will of the people yet supported by the majority in the federal government.

Wake up if you haven?t already! Stop worrying about what party a person belongs to and start looking at the person. Judge them by their fruit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG2PUZoukfA

[Reloveution]

I'm spanish and i can say that USA would be seen much better if Ron Paul is elected. I hope it happens for the good of all you. And I hope one day we get our very own Ron Paul.

[Reloveution]

Ron Paul YOU are going to be the next President of the United States Of America. FACE IT!:)

[A-C-P]

I do not get it. Why do people not understand. As we have strayed further away from the master plan that the founders of this great country laid out for us we have become poorer as a nation. It is becoming abundantly clear that the "Haves" do not care much for the "Have Nots", and only want to tax the crap out of the almost "Have Nots" and give it to the unwilling to work/complete "Have Nots" and create conflict among the groups for the entertainment of the "Haves". The "Haves"can then step in with their police state as a "God Send" of a solution. If the "Haves" are so preoccupied about over population than why don't they take measures to create a truly prosperous civilization. It does not take a social scientist to see that the wealthier a people become the fewer children they have. Duh!

[jdieter]

"Haves and have nots" Have what? Food, clothing, shelter, medical care? We currently ALL have those things in America. (in spite of the LIE that there are no charity or county hospitals) If you are talking wealth: like Gold, SUV's, mansions, etc... The people that HAVE wealth don't give a care if you also have wealth or not. It is the retarded poor have not's that are so jealous and envious that they vote laws to get the government to steal the "wealth" from the people that have it.