Poll: Health Care Vote May be Bad News for Ben Nelson in 2012

By: Stephanie Condon
Topics: Health Care

(AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)

Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson may get burned in his next election by the health care debate, regardless of how he ultimately votes for the Democrats' reform package, but he may be better off opposing it, a new poll shows.

Under intense pressure to fall in line with the rest of the Democratic caucus in the Senate, moderate Ben Nelson finally voted to end a Republican filibuster on the health care bill after cutting a deal to pay for an expansion of Medicaid in Nebraska with federal rather than state dollars. However, only 17 percent of Nebraska voters approve of the deal, according to a new Rasmussen poll.

Meanwhile, as many as 64 percent of Nebraska voters oppose the health care overhaul, including 53 percent who are strongly opposed -- and they may take it out on Nelson when he runs for re-election in 2012.

Sixty-one percent of surveyed voters said they would vote for Republican Gov. Dave Heineman if he ran against Nelson, while Nelson would get just 30 percent of the vote.

Nelson would win back a significant number of voters if he ultimately blocked the health care bill's passage, but he would lose a portion of his more liberal supporters. He would still lose in a match-up with Heineman, according to the poll, but by a smaller margin: 47 percent to 37 percent.

Once the Senate and House merge their health care bills, both chambers will have to vote on the reform package again. If Nelson were to drop his support at that point, 20 percent of those who initially said they would vote for Heineman said they would instead vote for Nelson. Another 6 percent of Heineman supporters said they were not sure how they would vote in that scenario. However, 10 percent of voters -- mostly voters who initially supported Nelson -- said they would prefer a third-party candidate if he blocks the health care bill.

Only 26 percent of Nebraska voters said Nelson has done a good or excellent job in the health care debate, while 47 percent said he has done a poor job. Overall, 55 percent have a negative view of the senator, and 40 percent have a favorable view.

Stephanie Condon
Stephanie Condon is a political reporter for CBSNews.com.
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by AlanTresk March 3, 2010 10:44 AM EST: "We the PEOPLE" DO NOT want Government Control of the healthcare industry (1/5 of our Economy)!!! Obama is a Marxist and protege of Saul Alinsky (Marxist/"Community Organizer"/Revolutionary to "Change" America with "Social Justice"...all terms used by Obama. In fact, Obama has been caught using these and many other exact lines and terms from Alinsky's teachings!!! Obama is a Communist and desires to create total Government Control of the "People"! He has stated in his own book and in interviews his disdain for the Constitution, stating "We have an obligation to release the American People from the bounds and constraints that our Founding Fathers have burdened them with by the Constitution." Enough said! Now Obama wants to pass Legislation (1/5 of Our Economy) through a device used and designed for budget cutting and not passage of Legislation...Reconciliation!!! Obama finds many ways as all good Communists would, to circumvent the Constitution! Stand up For America and Your Children's Future...become heard Americans!!!; Reply to this comment


by endurorob_5 December 30, 2009 9:54 AM EST: AOCGUY December 30, 2009 9:03 AM EST
rfague - A senator brings a $100 million gift to his state and you think that won't help him get reelected?

One has to question if he is so easily bought out in the open what is going on behind closed doors. Thats goes for the entire congress. If they are so arogant to do this kind of thing in the open who is buying them behind closed doors.; Reply to this comment


by pslsteve December 30, 2009 9:37 AM EST: I just hope that someone looks into the unconstitutional actions of this legislation that is being attempted by this congress. May those that sat silent for so long finally arise in 2010 and take back this nation from these thieves in the night!; Reply to this comment


by endurorob_5 December 30, 2009 7:10 AM EST: If this bill passes, which seems likely, and as time goes by and more is learned of what is actually in it more and more politicians who supported it are going to be in major trouble with their constituents.; Reply to this comment


by j_mcdonald-2009 December 30, 2009 1:55 AM EST: Rasmussen? Enough said.; Reply to this comment


by toddlarado December 29, 2009 10:25 PM EST: If Ben Nelson represents Nebraskans than that's one state I never intend to visit in my future vacations. I hope tourism is not an important part of there state economy. Does the south have broadband Yet?; Reply to this comment


by bumpedoff1 December 29, 2009 9:30 PM EST: A lot of them will be looking for jobs; Reply to this comment


by velma179 December 29, 2009 8:13 PM EST: A Rasmussen poll of 500 Likely Voters (as identified by Rasmussen polling these people are in the middle to older age groups entirely) should be taken with a grain of salt, for sure.

The polling questions put him in a race with the Republican governor, for one -- that assumes he won't have a Democrat challenger .. and by 2012 -- well, that is most definitely a possibility.
Also the poll shows he would lose if he votes For health care legislation or Against it.
The reporting in this article is almost as flawed as the polling criteria.

These polls are so tiring. People really don't ALWAYS keep the same opinion on specific issues for years and years and as situations change.
2012 is a ways off... sheesh.; Reply to this comment


by zootsuithap December 29, 2009 8:01 PM EST: Judas sold out for 30 pieces of silver- Ben Nelson held out for a hundred million...; Reply to this comment


by chrobrego-2009 December 29, 2009 6:42 PM EST: He loses either way in your polling. He should stand firm and the President should rally support for him in the next election -- only way he'll win. If he thinks that conservatives will vote for him as a flip-flopper, then he's nuts. He needs to get out the base and make sure all those Nebraskans who are hurting know that he did something to help them.; Reply to this comment