Can Qaddafi cling to power if oil runs out?

NEAR MISRATA, Libya - Missile strikes against Col. Muammar Qaddafi's military are noisy and dramatic. The campaign against his economy is quiet -- but devastating. A naval blockade and economic sanctions are slowly but surely choking his government.

Long lines of cars -- easily more than 100 at times -- snake along the roadsides outside gas stations wherever we've been allowed to travel. Drivers wait hours for a fill-up. Sometimes their cars run out of gas as they inch forward and they have to be pushed to the pumps. Sometimes the gas stations themselves run out of gas and simply close, leaving their angry customers stranded.

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"They are afraid their trucks will be blown up by the air strikes," he says.

This could be true, though there's no evidence civilian trucks have been hit.

Libyans queue for gasoline at a gas station in Ajdabiya, Libya, March 29, 2011.

/ AP

Just as likely, though, is the possibility that Qaddafi's government is running out of oil. No one really knows how big a strategic reserve he had when the conflict began almost six weeks ago. One respected European energy analyst believes it's enough to last three months.

To make matters worse, all the foreign staff who actually ran Libya's oil installations rushed for the borders once things got violent. So we know new oil isn't being pumped out of the ground, and if refineries aren't completely shut down yet, it's a fair guess they're just limping along.

The lineups at Western Libya's gas stations are an ominous warning. Once oil reserves drop to critically low levels, Qaddafi's government will have to turn off power stations and even the oil-fired pumps that keep water flowing.

The loyalty of his supporters is being tested in a small way as they line up for gas. Wait until they can no longer fill a glass of water at the kitchen tap.

[Bambay]

Can Qaddafi cling to power if oil runs out?
Fidel Castro's case is far different from Qaddafi current problem. In that during the days Castor topple government in Cuba, there was a Cold War going on and the world was divided into Eastern and Western Blocks, which is Communistic against Capitalistic Democracies. Castro was and has been supported heavily by Russia, which as you may recall, in October 1962, could have led to a Third World War on the Day of the Pigs (La Batalla de Gir?n) or the Cuban Missile Crises. Even when there was an embargo against Cuba, Castro received heavy support from Russia and other Socialistic and Communistic countries. But in the case of Khaddaffi, we have learnt of only Venezuela and Zimbabwe that have not decried his action. Now should an embargo tighten his abilities to do business and one of his main sources of income-generation, the oil production, shots-down, his very supporters will turn against him. I am only speculating that he does not get immediate support from oil-producing Venezuela or any other ally of his that is willing to take a risk.
The problem with that too is, all of Arab nations or most of them are either embroiled in a democratic reform struggle, are anticipating an up-rising or are on their guard, making it not feasible for any strong support. For Venezuela to send oil, they have ship the crude through ports, where the Allied Forces are on a watch. He will not risk tanks with fuel to drive from Venezuela to Tripoli or the environs, lighted by lightning and thunder or by flames. That will be a huge mistake.
Whether Colonel Ghaddaffi is able to defeat the rebels, beat the odd oil crises and clings to power, it will be a pyrrhic victory because he is conversant with rebel warfare to fully understand that ultimately, the rebels will get organized, well trained, well funded and will continue to fight for ages, making his leadership a tumultuous one. We have seen it happen in many countries such as the D.R. Congo, Uganda, Sudan, Central African Republic, Cambodia, Casamance to name a few. Some of these wars have been ongoing for ages.
I cannot see how he can hold on to power with all the odds against him and if he does, I cannot see how beneficial that will be to him, his family and the people of Libya.
As I have said before, Politics can be a dangerous game. In my humble opinion, this is a wait and see game. But I will never fight a fool's fight. Any fight, where righteousness and the Law is against one, is not a fight worthy fighting.

[peter_out]

There are some very good points in this article. The oil doesn't flow, the reserves are depleted. Motors fall silent. Pumps don't pump. No water - a dire predicament in a desert land. Seige. A tactic at least as old as Hannibal. The problem is it will be the civilians that die from dehydration, you can be sure water in short supply will be supplied to the armed forces.

[RedWings_ninety_one]

We have great access to oil shale...which is more abundant here than it is over in Saudi Arabia. Problem is, on order to extract it, they need superheated water, which requires the burning of natural gas. Making it expensive.

Solution: Use solar panels and heat the water using electric burners or hotplates. Lets try this...make things easier on ourselves.

[RedWings_ninety_one]

By "it" in Saudi Arabia, I mean oil in general...not just oil shale.

[infantryman1968]

Can Qaddafi cling to power if oil runs out?

LOL!

Translation: Can Obama cling to power if oil runs out?

[daffy64]

by ObamasBrokenTelePrompter March 30, 2011 9:08 AM EDT
No doubt about it.ObamaLovers are so blind that gas can hit $20 per gallon that they will still love him.Specially a jerk called skyk.

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Don't worry. Most of your imported oil comes from Canada. We'll keep it coming as long as you keep the billions coming to us.