Bid to end Qaddafi's reign poses risks

Libyan Leader Muammar Qaddafi arrives at a hotel to give television interviews in Tripoli, Libya, March 8, 2011.

/ AP Photo/Ben Curtis

On the anniversary of the 8th year since the Iraq war began, U.S.-led coalition forces struck Libya with a bit of "shock and awe."

Operation Odyssey Dawn has so far crippled Libyan air defenses, but just how the UN Security Council sanctioned offensive to quash pro-Qaddafi forces evolves in the coming days is uncertain, especially as it pertains to Qaddafi himself.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Sunday that air strikes in Libya had been "so far very effective" but that "it's difficult to know" what would happen to Qaddafi in the coming weeks.

Experts: Endgame for Libya uncertain

Qaddafi has vowed to fight on, promising a "long war," and his troops have been digging in outside Ajdabiya, on the road Benghazi and Tobruk in the east as rebel forces.

"Interference in our affairs has no justification," he said. "We are better than you because of our will. We are going to fight, we are going to fight for every square of our land. We will go as martyrs. We are dreamers, we will not give the land away," Qaddafi said on Libyan State TV Sunday.

Complete coverage: Anger in the Arab world

Navy Vice Adm. William E. Gortney, staff director for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, denied that the coalition is targeting the Qaddafi, but noted the Libyan head of state won't be safe if he happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, such as a surface-to-air missile site.

Mullen told Bob Schieffer on Face the Nation on Sunday, "We still believe that Qaddafi has lost his legitimacy to lead and must go. However, the goal of this resolution is not regime change. Rather, it authorizes the use of force with an explicit commitment to pursue all necessary measures to stop the killing. These two things aren't contradictory."

State Department spokesman Mark Toner echoed Mullen's message when asked whether Qaddafi should go.

"There are a lot of steps in front of us," Toner said. "We're enforcing the UN resolution now. We have been clear that in the long term we don't see Qaddafi as a legitimate ruler and we think he should step down. We will continue to apply pressure on him and his associates. We're going to continue discussions with the opposition...that's separate and apart from what's going on right now with the military operation."

In a press conference from Santiago, Chile, on Monday President Obama said, "I have... stated that it is U.S. policy that Qaddafi needs to go. But when it comes to our military action, we are doing so in support of U.N. Security resolution 1973. That specifically talks about humanitarian efforts, and we are going to make sure that we stick to that mandate." 

CBS News national security analyst Juan Zarate, former deputy assistant to President Bush and deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism from 2005 to 2009, has a less nuanced view of the current situation regarding Qaddafi's future. "The real objective here seems to be toppling Qaddafi, though no one seems to want to talk about that, and certainly that's laying in the works here as we talk about the next steps," he said.

In an email to Politico's Playbook, James G. Rickards, senior managing director and co-head of Omnis, Inc.'s Threat Finance & Market Intelligence practice, offered what may be the foundation to implement a more aggressive push for regime change in Libya:

"Libya is a big deal and not helpful to the world economy. At a minimum: Oil supplies disrupted, oil price increase is a drag on growth, war expenditures rip another unbudgeted hole in the budget ... Worst case: All of the above, plus: Qaddafi survives and Libya is split between east and west (Benghazi and Tripoli). Egypt exerts dominance over the Benghazi half. Qaddafi teams up with al Qaeda and unleashes a wave of terror in Western Europe in revenge for U.K., Italy and French participation in the coalition, Russia rearms Qaddafi, China gets the oil and Europe is driven closer to Russia (energy dependence now with no nuclear coming online and no Libyan oil). Over time, this starts to look like Iraq from 1991-2003, with a no-fly zone and ineffective oil-for-food sanctions and Saddam (now Qaddafi) still in power and a permanent thorn in our side. ... Markets hate uncertainty and this situation has nothing but."

An even more rogue and treacherous Qaddafi aligning with al Qaeda and using its oil to trade for arms, as well as other parts of the region, such as Yemen, spiraling out of control, isn't a future that the West wants to see.

CBS News national security correspondent David Martin on U.S. versus Qaddafi

[desert8lizard]

hi lefties,

it is well known that the priviledged young elitist obama endured little vetting, while his path to the presidency was paved in gold.

it is clear now that young obama does have a dark militaristic side.

has the left considered... that obama could be... the son of darth-cheney ?!!

(start the darth-cheney music)

[Reality-Checker]

No guarantees exist that whoever replaces Quadafy will be pro-western or anti-terrorist supporters. The civilian death toll of Libyans is something they accept as the price of their resolution for self-rule government. All nations should respect it rather than risk becoming an enemy to one side or both in the existing dilemma.

The price of oil won't go down until fears abate. Fear in the Arab world never abates until the carnage level becomes unmanageable.

Leaving Libya defenseless against invasion as a result of the NATO and USA's initiative to send missiles to destroy their best Surface to Air missiles, traps the NATO and USA into an obligation and long term commitment.

The USA economic recovery will snuff out if the military action in Libya escalates.

Taking our eye off the ball in Afghanistan, (Again) would prove disastrous and give the GOP much political advantage in the 2012 election. I believe the GOP wants Obama to fail and trap him into making the same errors they did under the Bush-Cheney administration.

The USA is not longer the biggest oil consumer. China is and their appetite won't abate over rising oil prices. China can endure much more rising oil prices before it's economy becomes strickened as the USA and Europe.

I believe the think tank who sold the NSA the proposal to launch missiles into Libya failed to take consideration of the economic consequences for the USA. The level of USA war-making that has been expended for the past 10 years is not sustainable.

[hamiltongrad]

I heard (should have been President)Hillary Clinton testify that this is a grass roots uprising sweeping the Arab nations. What was left out, was that this yearning for freedom is most likely due to 1. President Bush and his crew "draining the swamp" and placing the kernal in Iraq, for democracy. 2. Al Jerrezah, which appears to be maturing in actually reporting hard news, and not just anti American and an ti Israel propaganda - which they do too.

Do these people want real freedom ? or some backward adherance to an Islamic state, like Iran. The spectre of Iran, aids in fortifying resistance to that awful state, I hope.

[Nmmrng]

We should always worry when we find ourselves supporting the idiots who fire their weapons straight into the air.

[pohd1]

Obama wants Qaddfari out but, only humanitarian actions what ever that means. Sorry Mr. President you are voting present again. If you are going to want someone out and they are going to fight, you will have to use military actions against him. The Arab League need to step up to the plate. They want Qaddfari out but not willing to shed their blood but ok to shed the blood of the Christians of the west to protect the Muslims of the mideast while their own Muslim leaders do nothing. You Muslims out there think about that. It's not about oil we receive nothing or next to nothing in oil from Libya just like Iraq but the enemies of the US cry out about this. They (Islamist radicals, socialist, communist) fear represented govt by the people. Will we also go the the UN for the same going on in Yemen, Iran, Syria, Bahrain? Consistent no.

[Naughty_Victorians1]

Look who is talking about getting payed,a Satanic minion of the greatest terrorist organization the man has ever experienced the CIA.

Rebels are on CIA" pay roll that is the reason Satan's forces went for their rescue...

Qaddafi is going to survive cause his people love him,the citizens of the Muslim world love him...

On the other hand war criminal Obama is not going to survive beyond 2012.

[Henri_Rochard]

I don't see a good ending for the U.S. in Libya.