Egypt Unrest: A "Major Political Tsunami"

Egyptian demonstrators use a shoe to hit a picture of President Hosni Mubarak during a protest at Tahrir Square in Cairo on January 30, 2011.

/ Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images

ISLAMABAD - As Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak fights for survival in the face of rapidly growing protests on the streets of a country he has ruled with an iron hand, diplomats and analysts across the region are bracing for a period of growing instability that presents fresh challenges to a host of players.

"An unexpected turn of events is probably an understatement. Egypt is now witnessing a major political tsunami with consequences for its surrounding region," warns an Arab diplomat from a Middle Eastern country who served in Cairo until last August. Speaking to CBS News on condition of anonymity, the diplomat warned of "a variety of dangers" following a regime change in Egypt.

Going forward, he listed the emerging possibilities, ranging from "a significant rise of Islamic militants in Egypt who will take a harder line towards the U.S. and Israel," to "Egypt becoming a symbol of change for others to follow."

While President Mubarak for now appears to be defying the odds, Egypt is becoming increasingly locked in a state of growing paralysis that is forcing many analysts to resign themselves to a regime change.

Meanwhile, the return of Mohamed El-Baradei to lead the protests has raised the possibility of a future government led by a figure who will pursue internal reforms while retaining links to the U.S., Israel and other outside powers.

Baradei, the internationally respected Nobel laureate and former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global nuclear watchdog, is among the few Egyptians with a well-established international profile. Yet, Baradei's emergence to lead a future regime does not conclusively block the possibility of a period of turmoil.

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Analysts warn a future democratic regime elected through a popular vote is likely to also give political gains to Egypt's Muslim brotherhood, or "Akhwan al muslimeen" - the country's best-known and organized Islamic political force with a long term commitment to the imposition of Islamic rule.

Mubarak, in his three decades as Egypt's president, has frequently presented himself to foreign powers (notably the U.S., European countries and Israel) as the most effective bulwark against hard line Islamists waiting to take charge of his country. Leaders of the Brotherhood movement have frequently complained of having their followers picked up by Egypt's security forces, confined to illegal safe houses and tortured.

But the Brotherhood movement has also built up its ranks among Egypt's poverty-stricken neighborhoods, making inroads in communities that have felt marginalized in spite of periods of strong national economic growth.

"The Islamic Brotherhood has assumed a role as the key representative of Egypt's underdog. In a volatile situation as we have today, these people have the perfect opportunity to be heard as never before," says a second Arab diplomat who until 2009 served at his country's embassy in Cairo. Speaking to CBS News (also on condition of anonymity), the diplomat warned: "Once Hosni Mubarak is gone, there will be calls for a more representative democracy. It would then be impossible to keep the Muslim Brotherhood out (of power), especially if Egypt holds elections."

For the U.S. and Israel, the political rise of the Islamic Brotherhood may translate into a hardening of Egypt's policies towards the two countries.

Egypt has the distinction of being the first Arab country which restored diplomatic ties to Israel after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, in spite of opposition from Islamic groups across the Muslim world.

Meanwhile, security officials in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region also warn of an uncertain future tied to ongoing U.S.-backed efforts for confronting hard line groups, notably the Taliban and al Qaeda. On the one hand, an abrupt regime change in Egypt will likely work to inspire dissident groups in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia to step up campaigns against their rulers.

On the other hand, there may be further uncertainty surrounding the future of an ongoing campaign by Egyptian security forces to target Islamic hardliners connected to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second highest ranking leader of al Qaeda.

The Egyptian doctor-turned-militant, who is the second-highest-ranking figure in his movement after Osama bin Laden, has been rumored to have quietly expanded the network of supporters in his native Egypt.

"I believe events in Egypt have a real chance of spilling over. This is a volcano with real lava waiting to spill over," said a Pakistani security official who spoke to CBS News on condition that he would not be named as he is not authorized to speak to journalists. "We know Ayman al-Zawahiri has tried repeatedly to create trouble in his country. Given the developments in Egypt, it will be vital to watch if people like him will get a chance to exploit the situation even more than before."

[vkmo]

Israel doesn't want Egypt to become another Iran, where mullahs will promise the poor masses - Israel's (infidels) riches. Egypt is in an uproar joining Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan etc. Actually, when you look at Saddam, Hosni Mubarak, Nasser, Saudi Arabian monarchy, Khaddafi and other middle eastern leaders - stability comes (unfortunately) only when a dictator's warship is ruling the country. Democracy hasn't worked in the mideast (Pakistan included).

[journey7]

If you believe in freedom and liberty for the people of Egypt, please join the online protest on facebook. Go to facebook and search: Egypt's Protests 25-Jan-2011, click like and begin posting. Egypt needs our support.

[WeHappyFew]

Hopefully Egypt will not end up with the Muslim Brotherhood or worse. Mubarack has outstayed his welcome but this could be exchanging the frying pan for the fire.I see Jordan's going as well

[johnpatrick1]

Viva la Revolucion! Viva Pancho Villa!......say when are we going to get off our duffs here in the USA and kick out the disgusting, venal Oligarchy that has been raping our Nation for the past 40 years....Americans are a buch of wusses in comparision to the People of Tunisia and Egypt....as a Nation we are going down the toilet and the average American has become use to no toilet paper.

[Arkansasnative]

No one has noted that this time last week the news in the Mid-East was the dump of papers related to secret Palestinian negotion offers. AlJezirrah and the Guardian showed the world (the Arabs) plainly that the US is Israel's attorney in these phoney talks, that Abbas was a patheticly weak man who smells of a Quisling and Israel was the self-agrandizing party everyone had always known on the Arab Street. What may have been new was the extent to which Mubarek had become Israel's facilitator in the ethnic cleaning of Arabs from Israel. A week of that reporting may have been the final straw for him, and not for Abbas as had been assumed. In any case it is the end of a credible role for the US in any Arab country concerned with popular opinion.

[YrWrongAgain]

Excuse me! Excuse me! Has anyone else in this auditorium noticed that you are insane?

[skepticalJM]

Capitalism is gearing up to start more wars so it can rebuild itself with a new slave population. When are we going to learn that as long as we let greed be the most important thing we strive for in this world nothing will change; we just keep going down the same old road over and over again. Why can't humanity ever learn?

[YrWrongAgain]

Also, gay men find you irrestible, and that's why you must beat them?

[YrWrongAgain]

Furthermore, the mildly returded, giggling pro-Jihad stance that some of you have taken -- lamely disguised as American isolationism, pure democracy, moral equivalence -- earns you the contempt of people who can actually think. In a time of crisis, you debased yourselves.

[worldcitizen1]

It's NOT our crisis!

[YrWrongAgain]

No, of course not. As an anarchist, anti-Capitalist, Marxist or Jihadist, it is not your crisis. In your own very lunatic way, it is your opportunity.

[YrWrongAgain]

The majority of the German volk were sure than war with Poland was the right thing to do. This was democracy. The majority of the Egyptian people are Muslims, have no patience for the Copts, and are sure that war with Israel is the right thing to do. This is also democracy.

In both cases, the majority is not only wrong, it wants a police state to lead them to greater glory. No wonder some of you agree.

[worldcitizen1]

Bush, Rumsfeld & Cheney convinced the US population that invading and occupying Iraq was a great idea. They had no idea of the resulting civil war, or they were genocidal liars. So you think Egypt will invade Israel????? And do you think supporting dictators to be US friends is a good idea?

[YrWrongAgain]

The Muslim Brotherhood will team with Hezbollah to invade Israel. And their apologists will dance in the streets, as if these violent mystics could feel anything for you weak-willed little boys (except for what convicts learn to feel.)

[connie40023]

While watching the CNN coverage of the uprising in Cairo, I saw a young man with a sign that read, "America end the hypocrisy." When that is what the people of Egypt are saying to us, how can we ignore that plea? The people of the US think of the people of Egypt as friends. They have been our friends for a very long time. We are losing our credibility with the Egyptian people as we continue to stand by and watch as Egyptian citizens die in their attempt at a peaceful revolution. We need to continue as friends and allies of these people. We need to demand that Mubarak step down, and then do everything we can to support peaceful, free elections.

[Jaylah54]

Gosh, maybe if we'd have been spending those millions of dollars helping the PEOPLE of Egypt improve their situation for the past 30 years, instead of paying it to their dictator so he and his buddies could get rich off the backs of the Egyptian people, we wouldn't have much (if anything) to fear from the Islamic Brotherhood.

It's kinda funny that way. When people are hungry, they tend to look to sources other than the one that's assisted in their oppression for decades. Strange, huh?

[Jaylah54]

Correction: not "millions." Billions.

[Nikos_Retsos]

Egypt was a power keg of social injustice and discontent for 30 years,
and it just needed something or someone to light its fuse. The Tunisian revolt, and the ouster of its dictator Ben Ali, provided the courage to the Egyptians to light up the fuse and either blow up themselves, or blow the despotic regime of Hosni Mubarak away. The power keg of social discontent has exploded now, and I feel that despotism and U.S. control of the brutal Egyptian government appratus is gasping for air now. Mubaral has made himself a monarch, and he was planning to pass on the helm to his son, and then to grandson, and so on. But the Egyptian do not want another king -like Faruk-
in civilian clothes. Demonstrators told reporters they will stay on the streets until Mubarak is gone, and they will demand constitutional change which will limit presidential terms. And that is the least they should accept. Nikos Retsos, retired professor