Intel Reports Reveal Grim Afghan War Outlook

A Pakistani border security guard stands near an Afghanistan-bound NATO oil tanker after it was reportedly attacked at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border town Chaman in September. Unless Pakistan steps up its efforts to end insurgent safe havens along the border, the chances for U.S. success in Afghanistan are grim, a new intelligence reports claims.

/ AP Photo

President Barack Obama's Afghanistan war plans took two major hits this week: First, his longtime adviser and chief diplomat in the region, Richard Holbrooke, passed away unexpectedly. Now, two classified intelligence reports, one each on Afghanistan and Pakistan and intended for congressional committees, had their contents leaked to The New York Times and their findings are not good.

The reports, called National Intelligence Estimates, represent the consensus view of 16 domestic intelligence agencies without military input, the Times reports. Members of the House and Senate committees who read the reports described them to the Times.

The NIEs claim there is limited chance of success in Afghanistan unless Pakistan hunts down insurgents operating with seeming impunity from safe havens along their porous border, something the government in Islamabad has been dragging its feet on for years.

Military officials took immediate steps to downgrade the NIEs findings, the Times reports. Military intelligence commanders have traditionally been somewhat hostile to their domestic counterparts, even as they work together closely in the Afghan theater, referring to them as armchair quarterbacks who never spend time in the field.

Regardless, many military commanders could not tell the Times the findings in the NIE were inaccurate.

"I'm not going to make any bones about it, they've got sanctuaries and they go back and forth across the border," Maj. Gen. John F. Campbell, the commander of NATO forces in eastern Afghanistan, told reporters last week in the remote Kunar Province of Afghanistan. "They're financed better, they're better trained, they're the ones who bring in the higher-end I.E.D.'s."

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American commanders say their plan in the next few years is to kill large numbers of insurgents in the border region -- the military refers to it as "degrading the Taliban" -- and at the same time build up the Afghan National Army to the point that the Afghans can at least contain an insurgency still supported by Pakistan, the Times reports. American officials say Pakistan supports the insurgents as a proxy force in Afghanistan, preparing for the day the Americans leave.

Members of the Central Intelligence Agency, which itself commands thousands of Afghan paramilitaries, say this is the best option they have available given the circumstances described in the NIE.

"That is not the optimal solution, obviously," said Bruce O. Riedel to the Times, himself a former C.I.A. official and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who led a White House review of Afghan strategy last year that resulted in Mr. Obama sending the additional forces. "But we have to deal with the world we have, not the world we'd like. We can't make Pakistan stop being naughty."

[jgg000101]

I must be dreaming but I swear there is a story where obama says we're "on track" in afghanistan. So which is it?

[hamsterattack]

the last time the U.S. actually won a conflict was ...god..Grenada?

our once mighty military is a joke now

[lucifersshadow]

Anyone with common sense does not need "Intel" to tell them that this is going to h** in a handbasket. My question is, is a person's income inversly proportional to their IQ? We elect all these rich people who can afford the advertizing for political office, and look where it gets us. These people are not just stupid, they are mentally retarded. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, what did we accomplish? Then we have the bozo who says he is not going to allow the tax breaks for people over $250,000, and look what the clown does . . . Does Washington have something in the water that makes people stupid or something?

[YrWrongAgain]

And they're upstream from you guys. Just imagine.

[YrWrongAgain]

"Imagine" and "delusion" being two different things.

[buckfush500]

There is $1 trillion in minerals in Afganistan, $billions in oil in Iraq. All for the benifit of America's rich if we can only muster the lives of the children of the middle/lower econimic classes to secure it. Why do the people play along?

[curse914]

by skodillac December 15, 2010 3:12 PM EST
i always preffered indians than cowboys.i am just reading "killing custer" writen by a chayenne indian.american bloodsucking mentality is rooted in this merciless and shameless genocide and stealing,followed by slavery and all kinds of criminal schemes afterwards.but,the time is running out,what goes around comes around,you have nobody else to blame but yourselves.muslims see 9/11 as a little big horn.you can cry for next 500 years,but you will be safe only if you leave everyone alone.too much to ask?
======================================


When the manifest destiny of infinite growth reaches the coasts, it is necessary to invade other nations for raw materials. You can only drink so much water from your cup, then you have to "borrow" from another.

[TheKnowerseeker]

We The People can't agree on anything anymore, so divided we fall while the parasites within and predators without eat up all that is rightfully ours. Political correctness and plutocracy are the two poisons that are murdering America before our eyes. Since the left pushes political correctness while the right thrives on plutocracy (along with the left somewhat), We The People will *never* win unless we can kick 'em all out and start over with Real Americans at the helm. Most people understand what it means to be AMERICAN; we need leaders who *live* that ideal.

[curse914]

Lets start with the aknowledgement that infinite growth economic models are short lived.

[YrWrongAgain]

In other words, that Karl Marx is your prison daddy?

[pondcaster]

Or we could actually take the advice of someone who supposedly knew what the deal is/was and "...stop that war".

Merchant of death? Maybe. Master of war? Defnitely. But still good advice.

[YrWrongAgain]

After all these years of fighting, almost as many US casualties as in a single town during a Mexican drug wars. OMG how can we bear such agony? Whatever will happen to the community of multi-ethnic unity, serving notice on the politicians and giving back in the name of the people?

Dance emo boys dance, dear welfare state cretins.

[curse914]

I did not know that the "welfare state" that erased 3 Trillion in "wealth" in a year. Last I checked, it was an unfettered/unregulated financial market that did.

You are blowing smoke for a DOA ideology.

[TheKnowerseeker]

The marines and soldiers are dying psychologically, if not otherwise. Notice the increase in "soldier-suicides" and the cowboy, Vietnam-ish "kill-'em-all" attitude held by Army pilots as exposed in the WikiLeaks Apache slaughter video. It's also my understanding that many are coming home shell-shocked. I used to not support sudden pullout, but now I'm starting to flip that coin over. We're in Vietnam all over again, what with being politically tied down from doing what we need to do in Pakistan.

[BimBach]

Afghanistan simply cannot be converted into a modern democratic state no matter how smart our generals and diplomats are; and the sooner we stop spending billions of dollars plus the lives our our servicemen toward this futile goal the better.

But this doesn't mean that we can't continue to disrupt and preemtively strike at groups that are training for and planning attacks on the U.S. and our allies. If you agree, go to http://www.weRepublic.com and sign a petition to Congress urging them to ramp down our large military and nation-building efforts in Afghanistan in favor of a more tactical approach to fighting terrorists in the region.

[warsux]

So, in other words, "mission accomplished". Meaning, the DOD/Pentagon etc... keep getting limitless funding, no questions asked. Great.

However, I would be siding with the terrorists according to most knuckle draggers in here by saying pull out, and let them kill themselves rather than our kids. Pull out the contractors so they can come home and build bridges, schools etc here in our country.

But, most want to keep bombing (you know, cowboys and indians, and as long as they are on their couch watching it all unfold, then keep it up. makes for some good prime time!). Bombing has worked so well in the past 10 years hasnt it? Gotten progress. UBL is captured, safety has spread in Kabul, and everything is wonderful. Oh, wait, reality just knocked at the door.

[skodillac]

i always preffered indians than cowboys.i am just reading "killing custer" writen by a chayenne indian.american bloodsucking mentality is rooted in this merciless and shameless genocide and stealing,followed by slavery and all kinds of criminal schemes afterwards.but,the time is running out,what goes around comes around,you have nobody else to blame but yourselves.muslims see 9/11 as a little big horn.you can cry for next 500 years,but you will be safe only if you leave everyone alone.too much to ask?