National Lead Could Translate To Big Electoral College Win

A 13-point national lead for Barack Obama could translate into an Electoral College landslide, according to the latest models from CBS News and YouGov/Polimetrix.

The most recent CBS News/New York Times poll had Obama leading among likely voters nationally 52 percent to 39 percent, and the previous CBS News poll showed a similar lead. Guided by the results of the two polls, YouGov/Polimetrix then modeled 50 state electorates for CBS News, incorporating information from 26,671 online interviews with registered voters.

YouGov/Polimetrix applied the CBS News/New York Times double digit-lead to their 50-state national results weighted to each state's relative vote size, demographics, and matched to the CBS News/New York Times Poll in national party identification and ideology.

The technique allows the CBS News elections and survey unit and YouGov/Polimetrix to to estimate the probability that each candidate would carry any given state -- as of now -- in a national race. In late September, the national poll's 5-point lead for the Democrats translated in the CBS News/YouGov model into a most likely outcome of 313 Electoral Votes for Obama and 225 Electoral Votes for McCain,. In the current modeling, the most likely outcome produced by a double-digit Obama lead could be an Electoral College landslide, Obama 390 Electoral Votes, McCain 148.

That kind double-digit national margin would bring tossup states like Florida and Ohio into the Obama column in the model. North Carolina and Georgia would also move. Other battlegrounds like Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Michigan and Indiana, were part of the coalition of states Obama would hold with a 5-point national vote lead.
Also included in the model is what could happen to the Electoral College results if white voters became more Republican – or more Democratic – than election polls are currently suggesting.

Seemingly small percentage shifts in white voter support dramatically impact Barack Obama's overall Electoral College fortunes in the model. If Obama were to win even a narrow victory among white voters (which no Democrat has done since 1964) he would amass an electoral landslide of 408 Electoral Votes in the model. If Obama loses whites narrowly, taking 48 percent (as Bill Clinton did in 1996), it would still probably produce a comfortable Electoral College win: 379 Electoral Votes. In such a scenario Indiana and Ohio would become tossup states, with Indiana likely turning Republican. Getting 45 percent of the white vote would still give Obama a comfortable Electoral College win.

If Obama gets 41 percent of whites nationally, as John Kerry did in 2004, this analysis suggests he would lose narrowly in the Electoral College to John McCain, getting 247 Electoral Votes to 291 Electoral Votes for McCain. With that shift in national white vote, McCain takes Ohio and also becomes more likely than Obama to win North Carolina, Colorado, and Florida, among other states.

If Obama underperforms Kerry, taking just 39 percent of the white vote, he would probably lose badly in the Electoral College. McCain would amass a comfortable win and Obama would get just 209 Electoral Votes. Obama would win few of the current battleground states; McCain would probably capture Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, too.

How The CBS News/YouGov Model Works:
The national horserace percentage is not distributed evenly across all states. States differ in size (how much they contribute to a candidate's national vote total) registration, turnout, demographics, partisanship and, of course, candidate preference.

To model these state-level differences, we incorporated 51 additional sets of interviews with voters conducted by You Gov/Polimetrix, matched to voter registration lists, partisan and demographic profiles in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Results were then adjusted to reflect the latest national CBS News/New York Times poll horserace estimate. Using all these data, each state was assigned a probability of going to either Obama or McCain.

The electoral tallies are a model of the Electoral College's most likely outcome if a candidate were to win the national popular vote by the margins in current polls. Because some states shape up as closer contests than others, a shift in national vote choice will mean a change in the likely winner in the close states more readily than in less competitive states.

You Gov/Polimetrix selected respondents for this modeling from its online panel of 1.1 million Americans. They were matched to a sample of registered voters from each state to ensure representativeness.

As the campaign goes on, the underlying pattern of results could change state by state. CBS News will continue to look at the state by state implications of the national polling numbers.

[Confidential416]

Now Palin is hoping to scare you with an obama attack on our constitution%u2026 but wait%u2026 The republican party has already seen to the destruction of our constitution. Case and Point: the Fourth Amendment of the Constitution says, "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probably cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or thing to be seized." However, the Patriot Act is so broadly written that nothing protects a citizen with the provisions and intent of the Fourth Amendment. It renders anyone subject to a "sneak and peak" investigation in which all actions, communications, and personal records become fodder for prosecution.
If Obama does any rewriting it will be to reinstate our constitutional rights that have been obliterated by the republican party

[Confidential416]

socialism people: Socialism is a market system. Its just not an unregulated market system. The laws governing wages, paid vacation, weekends off, social security, medicare,medicaid, those are social policies designed to "spread the wealth."Employee stock options are also socialist, because workers owning a part of the profits generated is a socialist, not a capitalist idea. China right now is probably the best example of a purely capitalist market--NO REGULATION, no workers protections. I guess if you like that sort of thing you could go live in China.By the way, advocated by Republicans is "neo-liberalism" (really how ironic).

[Confidential416]

I am an independent voter in PA- wishing PA had an early voting option. 6 months ago I thought I would be voting for mccain - then palin - reckless, erratic decision to put the country at risk for a short term gain of a few points in the polls. that''s when I began to really pay attention. time and time again mccain has been erratic, reckless, unprofessional - then he started with the negative campaigning - the other night in PA he addressed obama concerns with nuclear power blah blah blah... those were his words - blah blah blah over something as big a topic as nuclear energy... since nothing else has worked he has the fear tactics in full force.. and that was it for me - mccain became mcsame - their big word now - socialism ... the parrots of mccain of started using the word without knowing the meaning. worse yet, once they started using an "ism" they went from socialism to fascism - to whatever "ism" will scare the american people. I am done being afraid. I am voting for Obama

[biasedpress]

Hey CBS? Since when is external polling worth the salt on a pretzel? You guys are just going to push your propaganda knowing obama and Mccain are within the marin of error in the polls that are most accurate. Where are your stories on the tapes/video that the L.A. Times has and refuses to release of obama in 2003 at a bash praising a close friend /PLO backer? Wasnt Ayers at that same event? What about michelle obamas conversation with the African Press? CBS why would you report on Palins wardrobe , but pass on obama news that is far more compelling, and sure to enlighten people to his true agenda? You guys thoroughly suck, and are evil co- conspirators in the pro-obama push. You should all be fired, for strters.

[biasedpress]

No chance for obama. I will never vote for a socialist /racist/elitist/sexist who has less experience than a 3rd grader when it come to substantive politics. You people are so suckered it''s unbeliveable. CBS isnt even reporting 1/10th of the smut on obama, nor is the rest of the obama media. This guy is not your friend, but your dictator.

[KEVIN_C]

My question is what does Karl Rove has to do with McCain''s campaign? He''s on tv helping with McCain''s election. First Bush''s buddy,now McCain''s buddy, what wrong and right about this picture? Do you think I would vote for someone who have ANYTHING to do with Karl Rove. Why doesn''t McCain steer away from him,his help,his involement? because he does''t mean to! It''s just the same old George Bush policy''s being brought in under people''s noses. Judge the man by "HIS FRIENDS" @ his time of need.

[insight2008]

I need some help in understanding OB''s tax plan:
1. He said he is going to lower taxes for 95%. Well, never have understood how that works since 40% do not pay. Anyway, taxes will be lower.
2. Last Friday Barney says will have to cut military spending 25% (gee Barney, that''s good for the economy)and will have to RAISE taxes. Which is it..lower or raise?
3. Yesterday, Chuck Schumer said that OB did not really mean he was going to lower taxes right away. May take a few years. What !!
Everytime OB and Gaffy Joe open their mouths we get 15 apologists trying to explain what they mean or wrote. Acorn rounded up a lot of folks and rushed them off to the pens just to get their vote in exchange for big promises. Lots of folks looking for a handout that ain''t going to happen.
So, OB, do we get a tax cut and healtcare reform?? The answer is NO. Ain''t going to happen. Taxes will go up. That is such a non-brainer. Clinton in 92 sounded good...taxes went up in 93.
Today 40% do not pay taxes. OB''s plan washes out to 49% not paying. That means there are 49% in the wagon and 51% pulling. Sounds like Karl to me.

[jefflz-2009]

The extreme right is out in force. their desperation is evidenced by the screaming of names: Socialist, Marxist, Communist, Most of the wingnuts are too ignorant to know what these attack words even mean. The intensity of their rage is an excellent measure of the hopelessness of the McCain/Palin campaign. Palin is already planning to run the Skinhead, gun-crazy Rapturist, Limbaugh-loving remnants of the Republican Party. Rats leaving a sinking ship.

[fbla1805]

Americans are always willing to listen and learn - it''s one of our greatest strengths!

These past months, we have seen McCain demonstrate, both in the debates, and in the way he has conducted himself and his campaign, that he:
is too slow on his feet, too petty, too erratic, and too cranky to be entrusted with running the USA,
too hung up on old, last-century concepts, military issues, and especially on the war in Iraq,
completely clueless about the lives and plights of his own countrymen and -women,
and completely oblivious to the fact that even his beloved military power is not sustainable if the US as a society continues fragmenting, and falls behind our competitors around the world.

(My goodness, John McCain has even demonstrated trouble counting his houses, condos, and automobiles!)

[fbla1805]

Spread the wealth? Sarah Palin, now worth $1.2 Million, created a new Republican %u201Cno-tax but spend & spread the wealth%u201D model:
no taxes in Alaska (no sales tax, no income tax),hundreds of millions in "socialist welfare" (including thousand dollar checks to all),
including the %u201CBridge to Nowhere%u201D (flip-flopping for it before she was against it!),
even hiring a D.C. lobbying firm to get millions while small-town mayor of Wasilla (pop. 7,000!),
paying for this %u201Cspreadin of the wealth" by boondoggling taxpayers from the %u201Cother 49%u201D for hundreds of millions (%u201CI spend, you pay!%u201D)
and slyly covering her trail by babbling on about %u201Cgovernment get out of my way%u201D in the debate with Biden!

Sarah got creative with her wardrobe, too, spendin lavishly on herself:
$4,716.49 on hair and makeup just through September,
$22,800.00 on makeup Oct. 1-15,
$5,102.71 at Bloomingdale%u2019s New York,
$9,447.71 at Macy%u2019s in Minn.,
$49,425.74 at Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and NY
$75,062.63 in a whopping%u2019spendin spree at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis (doggone it, she%u2019s goin upscale on us real fast!).

Then there%u2019s $21,012. for her three daughters%u2019 64 one-way and 12 round-trip commercial flights (paid by the state of Alaska, admirably provin Palin%u2019s credentials as an equal-opportunity biller)!

Republicans used to belittle former Sen. John Edwards%u2019 $400 haircut, but compared to Palin, that%u2019s chump change!