Horserace
July 17, 2008 9:57 AM

Starting Gate: Not As Close As You Think

By
Vaughn Ververs
Topics
Starting Gate
After a flurry of polls this week, it's tempting to sum up the presidential race this way: Barack Obama holds a small, but clear lead while John McCain, defying the odds, trends and landscape, remains within striking distance. The CBS/New York Times poll has Obama with a 6-point lead. It's three points in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, three points from Newsweek and the Gallup tracking poll has it at 3 points also.

The seeming tightness of the race though has spurred question about why Obama isn't further ahead in the current environment which appears to be tailor-made for his candidacy and his party in November. Before you go down that "what's wrong with Obama" road though, there's evidence out there that suggests Obama may be in much better shape than he looks to be in the national polls.

Presidents, of course, are elected by the Electoral College, not the popular vote, and a quick look at the state-by-state polls shows the kind of advantages Obama holds at the moment. Glancing at the averages compiled by Real Clear Politics, a picture emerges suggesting that Obama has a much better chance of enlarging his map than McCain.

In those blue states being talked about by Republicans as possible targets, Obama is doing more than holding his own. In Pennsylvania, the RCP average has Obama up by 7 points. In Michigan, it's a 7.2 point lead, 11.2 points In Wisconsin and 12 points in Minnesota.

When it comes to those states Obama is looking to flip into the Democratic column, the race is much closer. McCain holds an average lead of just 0.7 points in Virginia and just 3.8 points in North Carolina. Obama meanwhile leads by 3.6 points in Colorado and holds a slight 0.5 lead in Indiana. And in Nevada, it's a dead heat.

Meanwhile, some of the more traditional swing states look to be tilting slightly towards the Democrat. Obama holds the lead in poll averages in places Republicans have won in recent cycle. He's up 4.5 points in Ohio and 2.5 in Missouri. Obama is holding strong in Iowa, with an average 7.4 point lead. McCain clings to a 2.2 point average lead in must-have Florida and New Hampshire is a toss-up.

In other words, Obama is looking much stronger in the states Democrats have relied on in the past two close elections while appearing to make real inroads in traditional Republican states and competing very well in big swing states like Ohio. It's early. All polls are snapshots in time and the practice of "averaging" poll results from different polling organizations with different methodologies is not close to being scientific. But it's instructive to look at both the broader and state-by state information to get a true sense of the race. And at this point, it's hard to argue that Obama does not have a clear lead. (Caveat: The Real Clear Politics polling averages include data from many polls, including some note used or recognized by CBS News).


Around The Track

  • Obama's campaign says it raised $52 million in June and has $72 million in the bank. The DNC has $20 million cash-on-hand, CBS News reports, which puts the total amount at $92 million. For all the success of Obama's fundraising, that puts him just short of the nearly $95 million the McCain campaign and RNC reports having. Still, it's as competitive as Democrats have been on the fundraising front in a long time.

  • Al Gore stayed mum during the Democratic primary but he bursts back onto the stage with a major speech in Washington today on climate change and the energy crisis. Gore will challenge the nation to produce all of its energy through wind, sun and other "Earth-friendly" means, according to the AP.

  • Former Bush adviser Karl Rove says both candidates may be missing an opportunity to lead on the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae front: "Elections are often reshaped by unexpected and fast-moving events, and when this happens a candidate who quickly takes the lead on the new issue can bolster his chances to win," Rove writes in his Wall Street Journal column. "An opportunity awaits Messrs. McCain and Obama. Will either man seize it?"

  • Obama's trip overseas will be covered intensely by some of the media heavyweights, reports the New York Times. That provides him an opportunity but also poses the risk that any missteps on the world stage could be amplified greatly.

    • Add a Comment See all 57 Comments
    by normsw July 19, 2008 7:48 AM EDT
    McCain can say whatever he wants, he''s never going to win anyway The country is sick and tired of 8 years of Bush and the Republicans. War, recession, gas and food prices through the roof are going to sweep the GOP from office in November.At least Bill Clinton knew how to manage the nation.
    Reply to this comment
    by starleo146 July 18, 2008 12:42 PM EDT
    Over at Time.com, Justin Fox reviewed McCain''s whopper and announced, "This was more a case of McCain misspeaking or misunderstanding than having a secret plan to dismantle Social Security as we know it."

    The Los Angeles Times claimed that McCain "seemed to call Social Security a ''disgrace'' " [emphasis added].

    Dan Balz, taking part in a washingtonpost.com online chat session with readers, offered up his own cleansing interpretation: "I would suspect that the point [McCain] was trying to make in calling the system a disgrace is the fact that with fewer workers paying the cost of Social Security for more and more retirees, the system is out of balance."

    McCain''s Social Security words were unambiguous; he was absolutely clear. But the press, after belatedly acknowledging them, quickly and charitably concocted an escape hatch for the candidate -- he misspoke! Or, this is what he probably meant to say.

    Frankly, that''s just nuts.
    Reply to this comment
    by starleo146 July 18, 2008 12:41 PM EDT
    Online at USA TODAY, the newspaper''s blog posted an item under the headline, "Did McCain call Social Security a disgrace?" suggesting there was a deep mystery involved. The post basically provided a link to McCain''s televised remarks and left the rest to the readers: "Judge for yourself -- did he misspeak?" Reporters at USA Today, apparently, were not able to make that call themselves.

    Blogging at ABC News, Jake Tapper also opted for the gee-I''m-stumped headline approach: "What About Social Security Was McCain Calling a ''Disgrace?'' " Tapper replayed the McCain comments and included a round-up of reactions from liberal bloggers who jumped on the story and wondered why the candidate''s remark wasn''t being replayed in a cable television loop. Tapper himself made no attempt to analyze or interpret the McCain comments, to put them in context, or to suggest they were newsworthy or controversial; he simply contacted the campaign and re-printed its weak spin.

    Over
    Reply to this comment
    by superdem July 18, 2008 12:40 PM EDT
    The Republicans opposed the creation of the Social Security system, so why would they support it now ? To them it''s a socialist Democratic exercise in state paternalism. They don''t think the government owes anything to the people, or is capable of solving social problems. They are anti-government, when everywhere in the world it is overwhelmingly evident that only strong central governments can get anything done. Republicans suck.
    Reply to this comment
    by starleo146 July 18, 2008 12:37 PM EDT
    Another "wow" moment came when reading the July 12-13 Wall Street Journal article that reviewed McCain''s week (from hell) on the campaign trail. And specifically, the piece detailed the missteps that occurred during Q&A sessions with voters. Yet the Journal made no mention of the fact that McCain told a voter that America''s Social Security system was an "absolute disgrace."

    That was not news, according to Rupert Murdoch''s newspaper, where common sense is clearly in short supply.

    When some news organizations, shamed into action by the blogs, finally did get around to addressing the news story they completely (and willfully?) missed, reporters were careful to tiptoe around McCain''s unambiguous comment and generally act confused about what the candidate meant.
    Reply to this comment
    by starleo146 July 18, 2008 12:36 PM EDT
    That was also my reaction to reading the July 11 New York Times dispatch that quite belatedly addressed the McCain controversy. The Times story was startling because it presented McCain''s astounding Social Security remark right alongside a completely benign comment Obama made last week about American children needing to learn a second language. The Times presented the two quotes as being equal, as being examples of the kind of "controversies" that can arise when candidates veer off scripted remarks.

    But the only reason the Obama remarks became a so-called "controversy" was when right-wing groups purposely misinterpreted the remarks to mean Obama was demanding that Americans be forced to learn Spanish.
    Reply to this comment
    by starleo146 July 18, 2008 12:35 PM EDT
    Days later when the POST finally caught up with the "disgrace" comment, the piece included a second round of "disgrace" spin from McCain himself, who -- asked at last to edify his remark -- claimed he was referring to the fact that young people "are paying so much that they are paying into a system that they won''t receive benefits from on its present track that [it''s] on, that''s the point." McCain added that the Social Security trustees "have clearly stated it''s going to go bankrupt."

    That''s what he meant by "disgrace."

    The Post however, failed to inform readers that McCain''s claim that Social Security is "going to go bankrupt" and that young people won''t receive any Social Security benefits is, without question, false.

    So to recap: At the Post, the paper failed to catch the "disgrace" comment when it was first made. The paper then published an entire piece about Social Security as a campaign issue and never included the "disgrace" comment. And when the Post belatedly addressed the "disgrace" remark, it allowed McCain to air unfettered lies about Social Security.
    Reply to this comment
    by starleo146 July 18, 2008 12:17 PM EDT
    Honestly, what''s the point of having an army of reporters follow McCain around the country if they cannot detect news when it happens, or are too timid to relay it when it does?

    The Washington Post was also among the newspapers that sent a reporter to cover McCain''s Denver event and then ignored the "disgrace" story.

    But how''s this for embarrassing? The day after McCain''s "disgrace" comment, the Post

    published a lengthy, A1 piece detailing the Social Security positions of Obama and McCain, but the newspaper did not include McCain''s shocking remarks. The Post did include a snippet of the Republican''s remarks from Denver the day before, but in an article about the candidates'' view of Social Security, not the fact that McCain thinks the whole system is a "disgrace."
    Reply to this comment
    by starleo146 July 18, 2008 12:16 PM EDT
    What was so revealing was that not a single member of the campaign press caravan that heard McCain''s shocking swipe at Social Security immediately thought it was newsworthy.

    Here''s just a partial list of print news outlets that had reporters covering McCain''s Denver event but that did not mention the "disgrace" comment -- that did not consider it to be newsworthy in real time:

    * The Washington Times

    * Los Angeles Times

    * The Baltimore Sun

    * The Miami Herald

    * St. Louis Post-Dispatch

    * New York Post

    * Associated Press
    Reply to this comment
    by starleo146 July 18, 2008 12:14 PM EDT
    loggers noted it over and over last week: John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, thinks that Social Security, widely regarded as the most effective government-run program in the history of the United States, is a "disgrace."

    What was so revealing was that not a single member of the campaign press caravan that heard McCain''s shocking swipe at Social Security immediately thought it was newsworthy.

    Here''s just a partial list of print news outlets that had reporters covering McCain''s Denver event but that did not mention the "disgrace" comment -- that did not consider it to be newsworthy in real time:
    Reply to this comment
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