Giuliani Exit May Benefit McCain But Where Do Edwards Voters Go?

By: Vaughn Ververs
Topics: John Edwards

Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBSNews.com offers her analysis of what might happen to John Edwards' supporters now that he is dropping out:

On the Republican side, we can make the assumption that many of those who favored Rudy Giuliani will now support John McCain – he's tough on terrorism, he appeals to independent voters, much as the former Mayor of New York hoped to. But trying to figure out what the Edwards supporters will do is not so easy.

The Florida Democratic primary may not have mattered in terms of delegates, but it can tell us what a lot of voters do without a real campaign in their state. Edwards voters in Florida were very different from those favoring Barack Obama and those voting for Hillary Clinton.

First of all, Edwards had almost no minority support. One percent of African-Americans and only 8 percent of Hispanics voted for him. He ran best with white men, getting one in four of their votes (about the same share that Obama received). One in four Edwards voters called themselves conservatives – and just a third said they were liberal. Majorities of Clinton and Obama voters called themselves liberals.

[By the way, Clinton received 25 percent of African-American votes in Florida, and Obama 23 percent of white votes.]

Second, the Edwards supporters were the most likely to say that they would be dissatisfied if either of the other candidates won the nomination. Fifty-three percent of them would be dissatisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 52 percent if Obama won (most of Clinton's and Obama's voters said they'd be satisfied whatever the final outcome). Edwards voters were also much less likely to think that the country overall was ready to elect a black or a female president than other voters were – 59 percent versus 82 percent of all Florida Democrats in the case of a woman, 57 percent versus 71 percent in the case of a black.

This isn't a white male feeling – men and women who voted for Edwards answered these questions pretty much the same way.

So Edwards might not be able to move his voters to either of the other candidates en masse. Some of his supporters will clearly opt not to support either Clinton or Obama.

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by prynt_this January 31, 2008 5:47 AM EST: Your coverage is so bias.; Reply to this comment


by prynt_this January 31, 2008 5:46 AM EST: Were is the Ron Paul Coverage!! This is getting Ridiculous!!! Nothing on Ron Paul, but plenty on the other candidates. It is clear that the american people are not getting a fair chance to decide for themselves. Ron Paul is getting suppressed by the main media. Search The frontrunners and major media groups come up. Search Ron Paul and and nothing but some unheard of media group comes up. I am sure if Ron Paul were to drop out it would get major media coverage. God Bless the U.S.A; Reply to this comment


by horse3farm January 30, 2008 11:11 PM EST: fromny12526: I''d say EIGHT years in the White House working WITH her husband on issues, gives Mrs. Clinton an infinite amount of experience, most especially with world politics.

Obama, on the other hand, added to his inexperience by turning his back like a little boy, during the State of Union speech, while Hillary shook the hand of Ted Kennedy, who by the way endorsed Obama.

I would be quite scared if a world leader hurt Obama''s feelings and he acted that same big baby way.; Reply to this comment


by babarzm January 30, 2008 11:00 PM EST: An African origin American and a Muslim affiliation. I do not see how Obama can even win in USA even in next 50yrs.; Reply to this comment


by ontheleft January 30, 2008 10:52 PM EST: I was an Edwards supporter from day one. Now my vote goes to Obama. Who else is there to vote for? I''m not voting for that ''democrat'' McCain.; Reply to this comment


by tiredofit11 January 30, 2008 10:39 PM EST: I''m and Edwards voter and now I''m voting for Hillary. I care about the issues, not just somebody making a speech.; Reply to this comment


by paris1969 January 30, 2008 10:28 PM EST: NOBAMA ... period.; Reply to this comment


by fromny12526 January 30, 2008 9:07 PM EST: I was going to vote for John Edwards on Feb. fifth. I was voting for him, not because of his voting record, because it didn''t backup his message, but because I felt as though he was being sincere. He wanted to see America change. Hillary Clinton keeps talking about her experience but that''s not enough. She''s old news. I can''t send a message to the rest of the world that reads Bush Clinton Bush Clinton. This is a democracy. A lot of people talk about Obama not having enough "experience". He has just as much as Hillary he just didn''t care on about it. Remember, she was the first lady not the president.
I am a 45 year old white male and my wife is a 46 year old white female. We will be proudly voting for Obama. Thanks for listening.; Reply to this comment


by b-easy63 January 30, 2008 9:03 PM EST: Even though Hillary has only been a senator for a couple of terms, she''''s been around politics all her life.
Posted by mrbrill at 05:47 PM : Jan 30, 2008

experience in and of itself is not a barometer of competence. I was an auditor and investigator in the Pharm. Industry for years. Often, I''d have to censure someone for doing something wrong--they would protest and defend their position by telling me they had been doing it that way for 15 to 30 years. I had to gently remind them, that since what they were doing was compromising the product--they were really saying they had put the product in jeopardy for 15-30 years.

The point is years do not mean anything if coupled with wrong choices. I don''t know all of Hilary''s choices, but the ones to vote for the Iraq war, to expand FISA and to condone torture do not take a rocket scientist or a career politician to know they are wrong--it just takes someone with a bit of decency and honor--and...enough principle and integrity to stand up for that decency--even if it is not the popular thing to do. Hilary does what is necessary to move her agenda forward. Not what is right or honest or decent--but what is necessary. Voters should understand the ramifications of this agenda--because should she win--sometimes what may be necessary to her--may not be in the interest of the people who supported her--or be right--but this result will be what they put into power.; Reply to this comment


by mrbrill January 30, 2008 8:47 PM EST: Even though Hillary has only been a senator for a couple of terms, she''s been around politics all her life. She has plenty of experience. I think one telling tale of her success is Rupert Murdock. He used to do everything within his power to make her look bad, and he has plenty of power, influence, and money to get his way most of the time. Now, he even helps her with fundraising. You don''t pull a quick one on Murdock... You have to earn his respect.; Reply to this comment