Starting Gate: Don't Bet The Ranch

By: Vaughn Ververs
Topics: Starting Gate

(AP / CBS)

In a campaign where the unexpected is the only certain bet, Nevada's caucuses tomorrow are a perfect illustration of this crazy political year. In what other year would an important nominating contest where the turnout estimates range from 20,000 to 100,000 seem so at home?

All bets are off in Nevada tomorrow as state Democrats gather in unfamiliar circumstances to add their voice to the fierce battle between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Like so much else in this campaign, the advantages for one candidate seem clear and the outcome appears a safe bet.

Even as he was suffering a stunning setback in New Hampshire, Obama was getting the endorsement of Nevada's influential Culinary union, widely seen as the state's premier organizational tool in the caucuses. The state's teachers union has not endorsed but is considered to be in the Clinton camp. They filed a lawsuit after Obama napped the Culinary support to try and stop party rules which allow voters to caucus in casinos – where plenty of those union members work and can participate even while on the clock.

That suit was thrown out yesterday, clearing the way for what appears on the face of it to be an Obama win tomorrow. But don't bet the ranch. Nobody, it seems, has a handle on just what the cards will look like when they're finally dealt.

Union members are furious at the attempt. In a radio ad yesterday, the Culinary union began running a Spanish-language ad calling Clinton "shameless" for allowing supporters to file the lawsuit. "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people," the ad says. "Hillary Clinton supporters went to court to prevent working people to vote this Saturday - that is an embarrassment. Hillary Clinton supporters want to prevent people from voting in their workplace on Saturday. This is unforgivable!"

But both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have invested heavily in organization in the state. Obama may have the most powerful union but Clinton and Edwards have influential labor support of their own. And polls in the state indicate any one of the three could emerge with a win.

In 2004, when the state was relegated to a basically meaningless contest, just 9,000 Democrats turned out for the nominating caucuses. As many as ten times that number may participate tomorrow in over 500 locations to take part in a process which is difficult for even Iowans to navigate – and they have decades of experience doing it. They'll be showing up at more than 5,000 sites across the state. High stakes with low odds of predicting a winner. Sounds kind of like the perfect description of campaign '08.

CBSNews.com's Brian Montopoli has more on the stakes and the uncertainty.

Tightening In South Carolina: A spate of recent polls show an increasingly tight race between John McCain and Mike Huckabee in tomorrow's South Carolina primary. A Mason-Dixon poll, for example, has McCain with a narrow lead over Huckabee, 27 percent to 25 percent with Mitt Romney at 15 percent and Fred Thompson at 13 percent. The Real Clear Politics poll average shows a slight, 4-point McCain edge heading into the final day.

He'll Be Here All Week: CBS News' Maria Gavrilovic reports that Obama has been auditioning for Nevada voters with a little humor. Obama recounted a question from Tuesday night's Democratic debate where the candidates were asked to describe their biggest weakness. "I thought that they meant 'what's your biggest weakness?!' So I said 'well you know I don't handle paper that well, you know, my desk is a mess, I need somebody to help me file and stuff all the time,'" Obama said.

"So the other two they say well my biggest weakness is 'I'm just too passionate about helping poor people.' I am just too impatient to bring about change in America. … If I had gone last I would have known what the game was. I could have said 'well you know I like to help old ladies across the street. Sometimes they don't want to be helped. It's terrible.'" No mention of a rim-shot.

Around The Track

The Edwards campaign has unveiled a new Web page to highlight complaints that their candidate receives far less media coverage than Clinton and Obama. "What is the difference between media perception and reality?" the campaign asks. "Well, for the better part of a year the media has focused on 2 celebrity candidates. Even after beating one of the celebrity candidates in Iowa (hint, it was Hillary Clinton), the media focused on two. Even after poll after poll show competitive races in Nevada, South Carolina, and other states, the media focuses on two. Well, the reality is that there are 3 candidates, but only one who will fight to save the middle class and has led the field with the boldest agenda for change – John Edwards."

You've probably heard about them but have you ever actually listened to a "push poll" call? Now you can.

Who's in line to get the "Limbaugh" vote? He hasn't endorsed, but the Boston Globe notes that conservative talker Rush Limbaugh has found some awfully nice things to say about Romney lately.

Will Clinton's pro-gaming stance give her an edge in Nevada?

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by linda4jre January 18, 2008 7:34 PM EST: The Reality vs. Media Perception Edwards video is spot on and is very funny, but tragic at the same time. If I worked for the main stream media, I would be ashamed after being exposed for not covering the most electable candidate who also doesn''t take $100 million in corporate donations like Clinton and Obama.; Reply to this comment


by dlwilts January 18, 2008 6:05 PM EST: I am appalled at the media and their lack of coverage for John Edwards.It seems they have already selected the Democratic candidate, and no one else deserves coverage. John Edwards is running for the Democratic nomination-and the media who is supposed to present well balanced, factual coverage to Americans is not sharing his story.If you are an undecided voter, take a look at the policies Edwards has laid out.Review the timeline of his campaign and see how every time Senator Edwards promotes a viewpoint or offers a new opinion the other two candidates pick it up within a few days.Neither of them talked about the poor or the struggling middle class until Edwards did-neither of them talked a health care plan until Edwards did.And the list goes on and on.One of the Senators even stole John''s message of hope.Voters, you need to do the research on these candidates.I''m from Iowa and yes we have an advantage because the candidates spend so much time here.Senator Edwards is miles ahead of the other candidates and will likely lose this election because of the lackluster media who only want to travel with the celebrities.Celebrity journalism gets ratings-true old-fashioned reporting evidentally doesn''t pay the bills anymore.We are voting for the Democratic candidate for the Presidency of the United States.Any person who is willing to work for this position deserves to be heard.And any person who is casting a vote needs to do their homework.; Reply to this comment


by stoppoliticalcalls January 18, 2008 4:25 PM EST: Robo Calls.

These calls are an epidemic and are invading the privacy of All American Voters.

Our members are taking a stand and saying enough is enough at the National Political Do Not Contact Registry at StopPoliticalCalls.org.

Here is a quote from a member this morning:

"I find it very frustrating... I tend to get calls at the WORST time. I have a one year old daughter, and it NEVER fails that the phone will ring when I put her down for a nap or for bed. Also my vote is PRIVATE... so who do you think you are calling with a survey to find out who I am voting for!!! Stop calling me."

Regards,

Shaun Dakin
CEO and Founder
http://www.stoppoliticalcalls.org; Reply to this comment