Starting Gate: Fred's Campaign Is Not Dead -- Yet

By: Vaughn Ververs
Topics: Starting Gate

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Fred Thompson's campaign, left for dead after a lackluster effort in last fall's run-up to Iowa and New Hampshire, is showing some signs of life in South Carolina. On the days of the New Hampshire primary, Thompson headed south and began digging in for what could be his last stand.

Is it paying off? Yes and no. According to the latest Palmetto Poll, conducted by the University of Clemson, Thompson remains in a distant fourth, garnering just 10 percent. John McCain leads the GOP race with 29 percent, Mike Huckabee gets 22 percent and Mitt Romney is third with 13 percent. In the August Palmetto Poll, Thompson led the field with 19 percent.

But while Thompson's poll numbers might not be soaring, his rhetoric has gotten sharper over these past ten days. Just yesterday, the former Tennessee senator took aim at each one of those currently ahead of him. Thompson accused Romney of pandering and said his approach to the economy is less-than conservative. "Romney was very effective in Michigan doing what he does best and that is tailoring his message to a particular audience," said Thompson. "He basically - as I could pick up with it - promised that the federal government was going to come in and bail out Michigan when he got elected president. Very conservative notion, don't you think?"

While taking it easier on his longtime friend McCain, Thompson still managed to get in a dig about his support for last year's failed immigration reform bill. "I knew that he was on the wrong track," he said of McCain. "And the American people said so and they rejected that bill." Thompson then took aim at Huckabee. "At least McCain's record's been out there for about 20 years. We've got some Johnny-come-latelies now that don't want to talk about their record and they're hoping there's not enough time for anybody to even to examine it, because where they've been in the past."

This is the feisty Thompson that has been on display at the most recent debates and it's made him a much different candidate than the laconic manner in which he carried himself throughout the fall and early winter. Despite the rejuvenation, it may be too little, too late even in an incredibly jumbled and unpredictable field.

But Thompson could prove to be a spoiler in the race. After finishing second in Michigan, McCain needs a win in South Carolina to reclaim the small burst of New Hampshire momentum which vaulted him to the top of national polls. Huckabee needs a victory in South Carolina to prove that his Iowa win was no fluke and that his claims of Southern appeal are solid. (Romney's win Tuesday takes some of the pressure off of him in a state that would be difficult for him under most circumstances). Between McCain and Huckabee, who does Thompson pull support from most? Should he win on Saturday, McCain might want to throw Thompson onto the list of people he needs to thank.

How Mitt Did It: GOP pollster David Winston, a CBS election analyst, provides his breakdown of Mitt Romney's Michigan win:

Mitt Romney achieved a critical victory for himself in his former home state of Michigan and turned the Republican presidential primary into a wide open contest. There were three key elements at play in the Michigan race.

First, the economy was not only the top issue, as it was in New Hampshire, it was more important than the war in Iraq, immigration, and terror combined. 55% of the Republican primary electorate said it was their top issue. Among these voters, Romney beat McCain by 42-29, a 13 point margin. This was a shift from New Hampshire where the economic situation is somewhat different. In New Hampshire, 31% said the economy was the top issue, and McCain won that group with a 41-21 margin. Republicans have now held primaries in two very different parts of the country where the economy has been the lead issues. As the race moves to a southern economy, will South Carolina continue this trend and, if so, whose message will resonate with these voters?

Second, 68% of the Michigan Republican primary voters identified themselves as Republicans. In contrast, when McCain won the 2000 Republican primary, Republicans made up a much smaller 48% of the vote with many more Independents voting in the GOP primary. On Tuesday, Romney won Republican voters 41-27% over McCain. This was a change from New Hampshire where he lost registered Republicans to McCain by a 33-37 margin. Romney's increased support from Republicans coupled with fewer Independents voting on the Republican side accrued to Romney's advantage. For Romney, the question is whether this occurred because of his home state status and is, therefore, unique to Michigan or whether it was a structural change?

Finally, the evangelical vote was split again in Michigan. 39% identified themselves as evangelical Christians. Romney got 34% of their vote; Huckabee got 29%; and McCain got 22%. In New Hampshire, the evangelical vote was evenly distributed among the three, whereas in Iowa, Huckabee clearly outperformed other candidates among this voting group. The question going into South Carolina is whether this fairly even distribution continues?

Hill Force One: CBS News' Fernando Suarez gives the play-by-play of the Clinton campaign's unveiling of its new charter plane, dubbed "Hill-Force One," complete with pre-flight instructions from the candidate herself. "Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen," Clinton told reporters, "and welcome aboard the maiden flight of Hil Force One. My name is Hillary and I am so pleased to have most of you on board. FAA regulations prohibit the use of any cell phones, Blackberries, or wireless devices that may be used to transmit a negative story about me. In a few minutes, I am going to switch off the 'fasten your seat belt sign'. However, I've learned lately that things can get awfully bumpy when you least expect it – so you might want to keep those seatbelts fastened. And, in the event of an unexpected drop in poll numbers, this plane will be diverted to New Hampshire." Keep up with all the campaign news with From The Trail.

Around The Track

Barack Obama is reminding voters of his early opposition to the war in a new Nevada ad. The move comes after the Clinton camp has raised questions about the consistency of that position.

South Carolina Republican Governor Mark Sanford is holding firm, saying he won't endorse a candidate in advance of Saturday's primary. "What you don't want to do is stick your name out there, and the guy loses, and you didn't put the effort in. … Then you're that much more hurt in what you're trying to do in South Carolina. You've either got to go all in or not."

The RNC winter meeting is taking place in Washington and, no surprise, the main targets are the Democratic presidential candidates. House Minority Leader John Boehner takes his turn at the rostrum today, here's a sample of his remarks according to prepared text: "Just like the Democrats in Congress have helped Republicans, I have a feeling the Democrats running for President are going to do the same thing. The primaries are far from over, but take a look at their frontrunners. They're all pushing the same thing: higher taxes, big-government health care, and weakened national security. You have Senator Clinton - who even Democrats have decided they can't trust - proposing more than $800 billion in new government spending. She would force every one of us into government-run health care. And she said, 'I have a million ideas. The country can't afford them all.' No kidding. And then there's Senator Obama. He's spent his entire time in the Senate - three years - running for President. He voted for the largest tax hike in history. And he voted against vital funding for our men and women in uniform. Is this the change people are looking for? I don't think so."

"Walker, Texas Ranger" may be long off the air but the Huckabee campaign has certainly revived the career of Chuck Norris.

9 Comments Have Your Say
Email Story Send to a Friend
Share This Tell Your Friends
Tweet This Tweet This
More Share It

Add a Comment


by bigorangedon January 18, 2008 5:30 PM EST: All of the dirty politics in South Carolina can be traced back to the Huckabee campaign. Yesterday, the Governor ripped the scab off of an old wound by bringing up the Confederate flag issue and then used vulgar language to describe what those who disagreed with him could do with the flagpole! Nice mouth,Pastor! I was an uncommitted conservative but I have discovered in the last few weeks that Huckabee is a wolf in sheep''s clothing. Fred may be dead... but he''s got my vote!; Reply to this comment


by memekiller January 18, 2008 4:58 PM EST: Thompson''s prospects are as barren as the top of his head.

His campaign is as dead as his hair folicles.

The vacation is over.; Reply to this comment


by almanojodo January 18, 2008 2:03 AM EST: Huckabee''s conduct has dropped him to the bottom of the slime bucket! The jokester isn''t funny when his supporters resort to push polling and blatant misrepresentation.; Reply to this comment


by gjhicks January 17, 2008 6:59 PM EST: For Fred to call Huckabee a "Johnny come lately" is to play right into the hands of us who are tired of the DC Bunch! They no longer believe they represent the people, but instead are swallowed up in their narcissitic love for their own ideas. I want someone like me! That''s Huckabee.; Reply to this comment


by pete691982 January 17, 2008 4:29 PM EST: Romney''s move to withdraw from South Carolina is intriguing political chess. Will his marginal support go to Thompson and embarrass Huckabee? I think Mitt wants his main rival to be John McCain, so he is hoping Mike Huckabee will be sufficiently weakened by a defeat to make him a non-factor on Feb 5th. Romney would need to follow SC with a win in FL, which I think is quite likely if the religious base of the party loses faith in Huckabee and Thompson(who is out of the running unless he pulls out a miracle finish in SC). With Thompson and Huckabee out of the picture, Romney could secure the support of the base and switch to a more centrist message going down the stretch (pulling votes from McCain & Giuliani). A Romney victory in Nevada will keep him in front in the delegate race, which is now being given at least some MSM coverage. All in all I must say it will be interesting to see how this strategy plays out. In a best case scenario, Romney avoids the SC mud, sees the downfall of the two candidates that threaten his original strategy the most, steamrolls most of the 34 NV delegates, and watches the 24 SC delegates splinter between 3 other campaigns. The strategy could also backfire if either Huckabee or Thompson somehow pulls off a win, or if McCain receives a large enough boost elsewhere with a win. Wait and see...; Reply to this comment


by boondiss2 January 17, 2008 3:35 PM EST: Why don''t you report on the most recent Rasmussen poll that has Thompson (16%) in a statistical tie with Romney and Huckabee for second? The only movement in this poll was Fred gaining 4 points and Huckabee losing 5. Or you could have reported Fred''s jump to third place in the Zogby poll that came out yesterday. Is everyone in the media against Fred Thompson, or just incompetent?; Reply to this comment


by winghunter January 17, 2008 1:42 PM EST: Had voters accepted their responsibility in searching out the candidates records Thompson wouldn''t have to be "feisty". Where McCain''s resurgence can only be attributed to short term memory loss by voters since illegal immigration is the number one issue in the nation.

Do not be fooled by candidates pandering and reinventing themselves only for this race;

Candidate Research - Know Who You''re Voting For ( The Easy Way ) http://***********/2sowta; Reply to this comment


by newideas1 January 17, 2008 1:09 PM EST: Mike Huckabee started his campaign with the same message that he will have when takes up residency in the White House. It''s the same message that won in Iowa. It''s the same message that will win in South Carolina. And, it''s the same message that would have won in New Hampshire and Michigan if he had the time to reach more people.

Those of us who know him and have heard his message support him. Period. I don''t know anyone who knows Mike Huckabee and has heard his message and truly believes in any other candidate more than him.

Mike Huckabee is here to stay. I support him, and I strongly encourage others to consider his candidacy.

www.abuckforhuck.com; Reply to this comment


by lgander January 17, 2008 12:39 PM EST: Maybe not - but it''s on life support.

Because the big money Washington Insiders hate Mike Huckabee, Mike Huckabee is the ONLY candidate that I will vote for in November (whether he''s the Republican Nominee or not).; Reply to this comment