Starting Gate: A Race Within A Race Within A Debate

By: Vaughn Ververs
Topics: Starting Gate

(AP)

If you want a clear snapshot of the strategies the Republican presidential candidates are pursuing in this wide-open race, just watch or read a transcript of last night's debate in South Carolina. Just about every one laid out their road maps for the next week.

First, Mitt Romney, who was speaking more to primary voters in Michigan than the Palmetto State, quickly jumped on the opening question about the state of the economy to bring up a quote by John McCain about jobs. The Romney camp is putting just about all its chips on winning that state's primary next Tuesday and has been eager to point out the fact that some of McCain's "straight talk" of late has included a contention that some jobs lost in Michigan won't be coming back.

Trying to cast McCain as a pessimist on jobs in the economically depressed state is certainly understandable and when McCain was asked whether he had any immediate economic stimulus plans, the Arizona Senator fell back on his litany of the importance of spending cuts and fiscal discipline. Mike Huckabee is also competing in Michigan but it's McCain and Romney who are vying for the same pool of voters. Give a slight edge to Romney in the exchange.

But there was another contest happening within the debate, this one between Fred Thompson and Huckabee and aimed directly at South Carolina primary voters. Thompson was far livelier than he has been in the entire campaign, playing the part of a political Rip Van Winkle waking up after a year-long nap. The former Tennessee senator, who is making South Carolina a make-or-break moment, not only woke up, but leaped out of bed roaring and ready to go.

His strategy was clearly to fire away early and often at Huckabee, with whom he is competing for social conservatives in the state. It didn't take long for Thompson to declare the nomination contest a "battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party" and let loose a litany of charges against Huckabee's record, claiming the former Arkansas governor would "bring about liberal economic policies, liberal foreign policies." Huckabee defended himself adequately with his customary good humor and likeable persona and later on in the debate scored the biggest ovation of the evening with a stirring defense of his religious beliefs. But Thompson may have made some inroads if for no other reason than he simply woke up.

Rudy Giuliani, not a factor in either Michigan of South Carolina, at one point seemed to defend his rope-a-dope strategy (which he has been talking about too much) by pointing out Ronald Reagan's 50-state strategy. The former New York City mayor has perhaps benefited more than anyone except Huckabee from the dozens of debates. His presence in the race may have faded without them. Ron Paul … well, he was Ron Paul and the rest of the field is damn glad to have him up on stage with them. Now the race barrels towards a showdown in Michigan – and one in South Carolina, and one in Florida. Finally, some clarity in the GOP contest.

Unity Founders Head To Bloomberg Effort? Two of the founding members of Unity '08 – a bipartisan group which was dedicated to fielding a national ticket comprising leaders of both mayor parties – have left the organization to perhaps join efforts to woo New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg as an independent candidate. Former Republican consultant Doug Bailey and former Carter White House communications director Jerry Rafshoon have left Unity '08. An open letter e-mailed to supporters stated that the group had "lost" the pair "to a committee forming to draft Mayor Bloomberg should the circumstances seem right." (The letter, posted on the Unity '08 Web site now says the two "have stepped down from the board and may have more to say about their plans in the near future). "We'll have something to say next week," Rafshoon tells the New York Daily News.

The future of Unity '08 is also tenuous, according to the letter, which cites a Federal Election Commission ruling for limiting their fund-raising ability. "And so reluctantly," the letter states, "especially given the volatility of the present situation, we're forced to scale back - not cease - our operations and suspend our ballot access project. Our website will become less interactive (it takes staff to answer hundreds of e-mails a day) and we can't in good faith make the $5 million commitment necessary to make a serious start on ballot access."

Meanwhile, the pressure is growing on Bloomberg to make a decision on a potential bid. For months, the mayor has denied interest in such a campaign while his aides and supporters have deliberately plotted one and shared such plans with the press. A front-page story in the New York Times greets the mayor this morning with the headline: "Calls Grow for Bloomberg to Make Up His Mind." From the story: "Mr. Bloomberg's dalliance with the idea of running for president has stretched on and on, with his enthusiastic approval despite the public denials. But even before actually entering the contest, Mr. Bloomberg may have already risked losing something: people's patience."

They Love Her In The Big Cities: Democratic strategist Mark Gersh, a CBS News election consultant, has crunched more of the numbers from New Hampshire and provides more of the picture on just how Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama Tuesday:

An abundance of scrutiny has been conferred on the gender and youth vote in New Hampshire. Here are a few other pertinent elements of the Clinton upset that have received less notoriety:

Late Deciders - A surprising 37 percent of the voters made their determination in the final three days with more than one-third voting for Clinton. Apparently, the Obama campaign failed to receive the anticipated momentum boost from the Iowa campaign. Moreover, Senator Clinton won 40 percent of the vote among voters deciding on the final day of the New Hampshire campaign.

The Economy - Among the 31 percent of the electorate judging the economy as poor, Clinton amassed a 44 percent to 31 percent margin over Obama.

Large Towns & Cities - Cities and towns casting 1,500 or more votes broke strongly for Clinton. Her 9,000 plurality in these places represented her entire victory margin. Conversely, Obama enjoyed a narrow lead in other New Hampshire towns, mostly in rural parts of the state.

A repeat of Kerry/Dean - Howard Dean carried one county -- Grafton -- in his 2004 race against John Kerry. Obama also performed strongly in Grafton. Conversely, Kerry's strength in the two largest cities in the state -- Manchester and Nashua -- was replicated by Hillary Clinton. Clinton won Manchester by 15 points and Nashua by a 12 point margin. In the close 2008 contest, turnout was up 31.4 percent in areas won by Kerry and where Clinton tended to perform best, while it increased 27.5 percent in areas where Dean defeated Kerry and Obama ran strongly.

Turnout in Clinton strongholds - Not only was Clinton the favorite of Manchester and Nashua voters, but prodigious turnout accentuated the Clinton margin in both places. Compared to 2004, turnout was up 27 percent in Manchester and 28 percent in Nashua. In other Clinton strongholds, the increase in turnout between 2004 and 2008 was remarkable: up 63 percent in Rochester and 40 percent in Somerville.

Around The Track

John Edwards is resurrecting his "son of a mill-worker" theme in South Carolina with a new ad in which he says, "I'm not running for president because some political consultant told me what I'm supposed to say. I'm running for president because of 54 years of my life I have believed to my soul that the men and women who worked in that mill with my father were worth every bit as much as the man that owned that mill."

For what they're worth these days (although the GOP polls remained accurate in New Hampshire), a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey shows McCain leading in South Carolina with 25 percent. Huckabee is in second in the poll with 18 percent Romney has 17 percent and Thompson nabs nine percent in the poll.

The race is on among the remaining Democratic candidates to woo superdelegates who had supported now-departed candidates. According to the AP, many of the eleven superdelegates from Connecticut who had backed Chris Dodd remain undecided.

Dennis Kucinich is asking for a recount of the New Hampshire primary vote, citing online reports "alleging disparities around the state between hand-counted ballots, which tended to favor Barack Obama, and machine-counted ones that tended to favor Hillary
Clinton," reports the AP. Kucinich also noted the disparity between pre-primary polls and the vote totals Tuesday night. New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan said a recount would have to be paid for by Kucinich under state law.

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by giantrobot2 January 12, 2008 3:05 PM EST: ALERT! *** ALERT! *** ALERT!

$75,000 = $375 per week / $19,500yr
$50,000 = $250 per week / $13,000yr
$35,000 = $175 per week / $9,100yr
$25,000 = $125 per week / $6,500yr

Yrly salary left = Savings right

Vote for HUCKABEE and get richer with the "Fair tax" law he will implement. He is the ONLY candidate committed to doing this for all Americans.

Vote HUCKABEE and become RICHER! :); Reply to this comment


by ih2005 January 12, 2008 6:44 AM EST: One hopes that, absent a Huckabee campaign effort to defend itself, the media will counter Romney attacks by pointing out how, at Bain Capital, Mr. Romney used offshore corporations to avoid U.S. taxation, and he fee-milked acquired businesses before firing workers and taking them into bankruptcy ( http://snipr.com/romneyoffshore ), to amass his great $250,000,000 wealth.

So, when you compare how Mr. Huckabee''s visionary FairTax advocacy ( http://snipr.com/nextrung ) compares to Romney''s interest in the current tax system, it''s pretty easy to see who will lead us out of tax slavery ( http://snipr.com/taxburden ) - $265 billion annual tax code compliance costs representing 5 billion wasted hours, annually.; Reply to this comment


by merlgrey January 12, 2008 6:37 AM EST: Posted by giantrobot2 at 09:36 PM : "Presidential candidate MikeHuckabee is the ( ONLY ) candidate to commit to implementing the "Fair Tax" system for Americans.

Income tax is eliminated and Sales tax increase from 7% to 26%.

$1,000 LCD Flat screen TV:
Now cost $1,070 with 7% tax
New cost $1,260 with 26% tax"

heh. so we all get bigger idiot boxes?; Reply to this comment


by giantrobot2 January 12, 2008 12:36 AM EST: ALERT! *** ALERT! *** ALERT!

$75,000 = $375 per week
$50,000 = $250 per week
$35,000 = $175 per week
$25,000 = $125 per week

Vote for HUCKABEE and get richer!

Based on your annual salary on the left, you get to take home this much more (per week) if you vote for HUCKABEE!

Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee is the ( ONLY ) candidate to commit to implementing the "Fair Tax" system for Americans.

Income tax is eliminated and Sales tax increase from 7% to 26%.

$1,000 LCD Flat screen TV:
Now cost $1,070 with 7% tax
New cost $1,260 with 26% tax

$260 - $70 = $190 more for tax. But just think how fast you can save up $190 now! You can save up that amount in 3 to 5 days, that''''s all with HUCKABEE''''S new Fair Tax system.

To save up to buy that new TV will be very quick now.

Now you put away say $20 a week. That would take you 50 weeks or just about 1 year to save up for that. ($1,000 / $20 = 50 weeks)

But with HUCKABEE''''s plan you can save up say $375 week and pay it off in just 2 to 3 weeks! That''''s all! ($1,000 / $375 = 2 to 3 weeks)

If you want to become richer than you MUST vote for HUCKABEE. He is the ( ONLY ) presidential candidate committing to do this for all Americans.

VOTE for Mike Huckabee! Go to his web site and check him out at Mike Huckabee dot com.

You can walk home a richer happier man or woman each week if you vote for HUCKABEE!!!; Reply to this comment


by JedMerrill January 11, 2008 8:30 PM EST: I would add that Mitt Romney is currently in the lead in the popular vote, which says to me that America gets what Mitt has to offer. Add together New Hampshire and Iowa and you see Mitt with a healthy lead, and the most delegates to boot! (Romney 30, Huckabee 21, McCain 10) This does not count Wyoming, where Mitt won in a landslide with 70% of the vote!

Please stand behind Mitt. I ask for your vote for Mitt.; Reply to this comment


by JedMerrill January 11, 2008 8:26 PM EST: I definitely feel Mitt Romney won that debate, certainly against McCain. I am happy to hear that Thompson has turned on his lightswitch as well, and if Romney were not competitive, would enjoy seeing him revive his race via South Carolina.

Mitt is the man who understands the nuts and bolts of America. He knows the difference between a carburator and a dipstick, which is more than we can say for Huckabee as relates to the economy.

McCain is a decent man, but as a Veteran I am looking for more than 5 years in a POW camp as leadership experience. Romney has turned around over 200 companies, from Staples to the Sports Authority, the Olympics, the economy of the State of Massachusetts, and now he is dying to fix America, starting with Washington and the Republican Party.

McCain = 20 years of mixed results
Romney = 20 years of private and public sector success

Which will you vote for as America''s future?; Reply to this comment


by guypinestra January 11, 2008 4:28 PM EST: Your snide remark about Dr. Paul only shows the lengths that ALL MSM will go to denigrate the only candidate from EITHER party that doesn''t support the status quo. You guys are as bad as Faux News...; Reply to this comment