Starting Gate: Suddenly Shifting Strategy

By: Vaughn Ververs
Topics: Starting Gate

(CBS/AP)

For most of 2007, Michigan's primary has been an afterthought at best. But after Iowa and New Hampshire produced different Republican winners – neither named Mitt Romney – next Tuesday's contest suddenly looms large in the GOP race.

Romney, a literal favorite son, announced his candidacy in the state where he was born and where his father served as governor. A win for him there would help stop the slide of a campaign effort which spent months and millions on an early-state strategy that appears to be faltering. A loss would be nearly fatal for his campaign.

Yesterday, Romney stopped airing ads in South Carolina and Florida, two battleground states which will play large roles before the crush of February 5th contests. He's now going all in on Michigan, where a victory is not at all assured.

John McCain, who defeated George W. Bush in the state's primary in 2000 hasn't ignored the state even though his strategy focused nearly full-time on New Hampshire. McCain has retained a fairly high-level of support from that effort and comes into it with a huge comeback win in the Granite State.

And Mike Huckabee, winner of the Iowa caucuses, may seem an unlikely fit for the state because he's perceived as a candidate with limited appeal outside of evangelical voters most commonly associated with states like Iowa and South Carolina. But Michigan is home to a large block of social conservatives. Moreover, Huckabee's economic populism is something that could play well in the distressed state where job losses and pocketbook concerns may trump everything else. Huckabee has begun airing ads in the state with a tagline that seems aimed directly at Romney. "I approved this message because I believe most Americans want the next president to remind them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off," Huckabee says in the spot.

Polls in the state, for what they are worth these days, have been mixed, and have yet to take an the results in New Hampshire. In a wide-open race, Michigan is a wild card that may help shape the race. It's been a year of surprises and this is just one more, a sudden, unexpected showdown in a state left out of the conversation and off the radar for most of this long, long campaign.

McCain Makes Inroads Among Republican Regulars: Republican Pollster David Winston, a CBS News election consultant provides his breakdown of the New Hampshire Republican primary:

An analysis of the Exit Polls finds there were four key elements that shaped this race and could seriously impact the upcoming primaries.

First, most political observers expected that McCain would do well among Independents; and he did, beating Romney with a 38-30 margin. Less expected was McCain's surprising strength with Republicans who he won by a margin of 37-33. The longer-term implication for the primary race: the New Hampshire results showed that McCain can win in primary states where only Republicans are eligible to vote. Also interesting, in the 2000 New Hampshire Republican primary, Independents made up 32 percent of the electorate. This year, despite all the pre-primary discussion about Obama's ability to draw Independents away from Republicans, they totaled 34 percent, a slight increase.

Second, in New Hampshire 23 percent of voters identified themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians, in contrast to 60 percent in the Iowa caucuses. In Iowa, Huckabee won 45 percent of this vote with Romney the next closest at 19 percent. New Hampshire was a very different story. McCain and Huckabee tied for the lead among this group at 28, with Romney right behind them at 27. This is important because it shows that both McCain and Romney can be competitive with Huckabee for the evangelical vote.

Third, the exit poll asked voters in the Republican primary to identify which of four issues was most important in deciding how they voted. The economy was first (31 percent), followed by the war in Iraq (24 percent), illegal immigration (23 percent), and terrorism (18 percent). Against Romney, McCain clearly won the economic voters (41-21), the war in Iraq voters (45-27) and the terrorism voters (39-23), all sizable margins. However, Romney clearly did much better among illegal immigration voters against McCain, winning them by a huge margin, 56-19.

Finally, those who voted in the Republican primary had a very positive view of McCain who got a 75 percent favorable in the exit polls. Giuliani and Romney had respectable favorables as well at 63 percent and 62 percent respectively while Huckabee trailed behind with a 54 percent favorable. As we move into the upcoming contests, candidates' favorables will obviously be an important factor to keep in mind.

And Then There Were Three: Despite some confusing and mixed signals, it appears that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will drop his bid for the Democratic nomination. Richardson entered the race with higher hopes as the lone Hispanic in the field and the only one with executive experience. His moderate stances on issues like gun ownership made him an appealing candidate in Red states, especially the West and his hefty resume should have given him a measure of gravitas.

But his campaign lacked spark. While his appearances in smaller stump-settings were often given rave reviews, he failed to connect on a crowded stage in debates. His ads, and in some cases, his public persona, were funny and memorable. In a series of spots in Iowa last year, Richardson portrayed himself as interviewing for the job as president, laying out his past positions as ambassador, cabinet secretary and governor. But he was unable to break through in a crowded field that included two superstar candidates at the top. He finished with just two percent of the vote in Iowa and five percent in New Hampshire.

Richardson has long been viewed as a potential vice-presidential pick, largely because of the growing importance of Hispanic voters in the general election. Look for him on a lot of the short-lists to come.

Early Starts And Stops: The tea leaves for November haven't held much for Republicans to be excited about regardless of who wins the nominations but GOP operatives must be heartened by the prospect of a protracted Democratic nomination fight. A quick win for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would have allowed them to turn at least a measure of their attention toward the general election, especially raising money. Both Democratic heavyweights raised over $100 million in 2007, most of that targeted for primary spending, but some squirreled away to be used in the general election. Neither is expected to opt out of the public financing system, allowing them to raise and spend as much as they legally can. Now, with the two looking to duke it out in the large – and expensive – February 5th states, all that November planning and fund-raising takes a backseat for a while longer.

Around The Track

Mike Huckabee is quickly running out of late-night comedy shows to go on in advance of critical contests. The night before Iowa, Huckabee appeared on Jay Leno's "Tonight Show." On the eve of New Hampshire, it was David Letterman's "Late Show." Last night, a full six days before Michigan, Huckabee went on Comedy Central's "Colbert Report," where he joked about a Huckabee-Colbert ticket for November. In this election cycle, don't count anything out.

John Edwards wasted no time after finishing a distant third in New Hampshire. He was the first Democratic candidate in the state after Tuesday's vote, holding a rally in Columbia. "I'm in it for the long haul," Edward told hundreds at a high school there. The long haul might get a little shorter should Edwards fall in the state of his birth, one he won in 2004.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg says he is not a candidate for president every time he's asked about it, which is almost daily as of late. But that doesn't mean he isn't doing the detailed, and expensive, planning for an eventual independent candidacy. The AP reports on the "exhaustive data collection" Bloomberg has done in recent months, including polling and voter analysis in all 50 states.

Dennis Kucinich says he's not dropping his presidential bid but returned to Ohio amid complaints by rivals that he has ignored his day-job in Congress. "The people in the 10th District know something about me," Kucinich said, according to the AP. "They know I represent their interest. I handle over 10,000 requests for service a year. My office is a social
service agency. The reputation of my office on constituent service is superlative. We take care of people in the district."

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by giantrobot2 January 12, 2008 3:11 PM EST: ALERT! *** ALERT! *** ALERT!

$75,000 = $375 per week / $19,500yr
$50,000 = $250 per week / $13,000yr
$35,000 = $175 per week / $9,100yr
$25,000 = $125 per week / $6,500yr

Yrly salary left = Savings right

Vote for HUCKABEE and get richer with the "Fair tax" law he will implement. He is the ONLY candidate committed to doing this for all Americans.

Just imagine how fast you can buy that new high defintion 60" LCD Flat screen TV with huge speakers on it. A relaxing reclining chair with cup holder for your nice good beverage...ONLY if you vote for HUCKABEE!

Vote HUCKABEE and become RICHER! :); Reply to this comment


by marinepatriot January 11, 2008 8:46 PM EST: I am seeing so much dark emerging in this race. Why is Ebay CEO pumping millions into Romneys campaign? Is this just a business transaction? How much does Ebay stand to lose if the next President passes an intrernet tax as proposed?

Romney is obviously being molded by the rich and elite to take over our Country. I believe he is paying people to pull up dirt and lie about the other candidates. If we expect to survive as a nation, others must see this and stop Romney before it is too late.; Reply to this comment


by jbrewster7 January 10, 2008 4:09 PM EST: Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee has been hit with criticism over his record on taxes as governor of Arkansas. The faultfinders have been members of his own party, who take issue with tax increases he enacted. In recent interviews on Fox News, Huckabee responded to some of these questions, however investigation finds Huckabee to be misleading and incorrect on several points:

* Huckabee claimed that a speech in which he implored the state Legislature to raise taxes was in response to a state Supreme Court order to increase education funding. But he specifically said in that speech that he would address the education matter at a later date.

* He said a tax on beds filled in nursing homes was a "fee" not a tax, despite the fact that he himself has called it the "bed tax."

* Huckabee claimed a gasoline tax was only passed after 80 percent of voters approved it. Not true. The tax was enacted before a referendum vote on highway repairs.

* He frequently says he cut taxes "almost 94 times" but leaves out the 21 taxes raised during his tenure. In the end, he presided over a net tax increase.

(Source: FactCheck.org, Huckabee''s Fiscal Record, November 21, 2007); Reply to this comment


by almanojodo January 10, 2008 2:52 PM EST: WE NEED ROMNEY! His business expertise and proven problem-solving ability from outside the Washington beltway make Romney the best hope for our economy. McCain is so yesterday- just too old. Guiliani is all 9/11. Huckabee is too evangelical. Sure, they are good guys, but not Presidential. Only Romney is presidential.; Reply to this comment


by marjay13 January 10, 2008 1:52 PM EST: McCain slapped the "flip-flopper" sticker on the wrong guy. It''s Giuliani who is the biggest flip-flopper of all. He was a democrat, and now he''s a republican. But you wouldn''t know it. He''s just a Jackass masquerading as an Elephant. I was even very surprised when I first learned he was running as a republican. I had heard some of his ideas first, and I could have sworn I was listening to a democrat. Between Rudy and Hillary, it wouldn''t really matter who might win. The ensuing policies would be the same. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has never changed his personal beliefs. All he did was make good on his promises to not change the existing laws in Massachusetts. I''m for all for giving him a crack at fixing "broken" Washington, which has all but driven big industry out of the country, and has made our money worthless by printing their own, spending it, driving up prices, and messing up the natural supply and demand.; Reply to this comment


by marjay13 January 10, 2008 1:18 PM EST: Romney amassed a personal fortune to spend on his own campaign. No other candidate was smart enough to do that. Huckabee was smart enough to be the guy who was laid off. I trust the smart rich CEO guy to go fix Washington, where all the guys who have tried to tax him to death have just made a terrible mess of the country. Go Mitt!; Reply to this comment