Russians: 2036 Killer Asteroid Collision: NASA Unimpressed

The asteroid Apophis, discovered in 2004, will fly within 18,300 miles of Earth on April 13, 2029.

/ UH/IA

By Michelle Bryner This story originally appeared on Space.com

In 2004, NASA scientists announced that there was a chance that Apophis, an asteroid larger than two football fields, could smash into Earth in 2029. A few additional observations and some number-crunching later, astronomers noted that the chance of the planet-killer hitting Earth in 2029 was nearly zilch.

Now, reports out of Russia say that scientists there estimate Apophis will collide with Earth on April 13, 2036. These reports conflict on the probability of such a doomsday event, but the question remains: How scared should we be?

“Technically, they’re correct, there is a chance in 2036 [that Apophis will hit Earth]," said Donald Yeomans, head of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office. However, that chance is just 1-in-250,000, Yeomans said.

The Russian scientists are basing their predictions of a collision on the chance that the 900-foot-long (270 meters) Apophis will travel through what’s called a gravitational keyhole as it passes by Earth in 2029. The gravitational keyhole they mention is a precise region in space, only slightly larger than the asteroid itself, in which the effect of Earth's gravity is such that it could tweak Apophis' path.

“The situation is that in 2029, April 13, [Apophis] flies very close to the Earth, within five Earth radii, so that will be quite an event, but we’ve already ruled out the possibility of it hitting at that time,” Yeomans told Life’s Little Mysteries. “On the other hand, if it goes through what we call a keyhole during that close Earth approach … then it will indeed be perturbed just right so that it will come back and smack Earth on April 13, 2036,” Yeomans said.

The chances of the asteroid going through the keyhole, which is tiny compared to the asteroid, are “minuscule,” Yeomans added.

The more likely scenario is this: Apophis will make a fairly close approach to Earth in late 2012 and early 2013, and will be extensively observed with ground-based optical telescopes and radar systems. If it seems to be heading on a destructive path, NASA will devise the scheme and machinery necessary to change the asteroid’s orbit, decreasing the probability of a collision in 2036 to zero, Yeomans said.

There are several ways to change an asteroid’s orbit, the simplest of which is to run a spacecraft into the hurtling rock. This technology was used on July 4, 2005, when Deep Impact smashed into the comet Tempel 1.

This story was provided by Life's Little Mysteries, a sister site of SPACE.com.

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[Berg_MIII]

Apophis would make a fine addition to my meteorite collection

[poh17]

Nasa "Unimpressed" ??? American arrogance is un be lievable! What do you think, the Russians are chicken feed?
Pathetic!

[rwsmith29456]

I'm not going to worry just yet.

[mrjustice1]

Aren't we capable of producing an Asteroid cream?

If we can address our hemorrhoid problems which are much worse, then ...

[stevens63]

Better make sure to get my Tax return in early that year....providing the solar flare in Dec 2012 doesn't fry me first

[Reality-Checker]

I would consider it extremely foolish to discount any Russian scientist's claim. The Cold War was over in 1989 and since then, we have seen various declassified technologies developed in the Russian Space program, which still has not been duplicated by the USA. The Russians do indeed have credibility and all propaganda and US Arrogance should give way.

Here is a reality test question: If Russian science and technology was so inferior, then why did we spend billions to compete with it? What was the justification for the fear that sensationalized and expedited technological development in the USA? The answer is sweet and simple: The Russians were amazing us with one achivement after another. They were formidable, competitive, clever and good.

If the Russian scientists say we risk an asteroid collision, they should be believed and complimented for their finding. Their expert trajectory calculations can be read about on Wikipedia about their Luna expeditions which successfuly collected moon samples and returned back to Russian soil with precise navigation and clever engineering.

Many of the USA aircraft have a Russian twin....some developed before ours.

Cold War followed by Hot Peace still drives Science and Technology.

[stn_sage]

If our current govt knew we were going to be hit by an asteroid, they'd quietly get any designated 'V.I.P.s' underground, leave the vast majority of the public on the surface, and let whatever happens...happen! THAT'S HOW IT IS! They certainly wouldn't tell us!

[illcountryboy]

Get real please

[stn_sage]

Not mentioned in the article, is the fact, that NASA falls under the NSA!
That is why, we have been given very little actual space news the last 60 years or so! If they had, they would have bothered to tell us that other intelligence life exists in the universe, that life existed on or exists on other planets in our solar system, and that we have contact with them!
But, the govt has decided we are all children and couldn't 'bear up' under the news, which, is nothing more than an excuse for why they won't do their jobs and tell us the truth!! Someday, we're going to find out the hard way!

[mecury69]

I'll pass on "Russian" estimates. They will say and do anything for attention.

[lilbear925]

Sounds like Apophis may give us quite a show on every close pass it makes.

[enlightenu]

Asteroids aren't nearly as visible as comets.