Couric & Co.
June 25, 2008 5:23 PM

Tough Questions: Iran's Nuke Complex

By
David Martin
Topics
In The News
(CBS)
David Martin is National Security Correspondent for CBS News.
Will there be a strike – either by the U.S., Israel or both – against Iran's nuclear complex? And will it happen before the Bush administration leaves office? I doubt leaders in either country know the answers to those questions.

Israel is putting the pressure on, telling the Bush administration in every way possible: "if you don't do it, we will." That's a threat designed to be heard not just in Washington but in every capital of the world – including Tehran. Israel wants the Iranians to know that it really will strike if uranium enrichment continues and it wants the rest of the world to know that the only way to stave off military action is with much more draconian economic and diplomatic sanctions that will persuade Teheran to change its mind.

Everyone agrees on two things: 1) Iran with a bomb would be a disaster and 2) bombing Iran would be a disaster. The only argument is over which would be the greater disaster.

One school of thought says that Iran would be like any other country that has the bomb – afraid to use it for fear of retaliation. But even those who believe that Iran would play by the same rules of deterrence that every other nuclear state plays by acknowledge that at the very least an Iranian bomb would cause other oil rich states to get a bomb of their own and nobody thinks a nuclear arms race in the Middle East can have a good outcome. It's really a moot point because Israel is certain that Iran with a bomb would be a greater disaster and Israel will do whatever it takes to prevent it.

The real question is: "what is Israel's red line? What will it take to trigger a strike?" You can be sure Iran has thought about that a lot. The most simplistic scenario is that Iran kicks the IAEA inspectors out, and within six to 12 months has enriched enough uranium to bomb-grade levels to have a weapon. Iran is unlikely to give Israel such a clear signal. A more likely scenario is that Iran would divert some of the low enriched uranium from its plant at Natanz to a secret enrichment facility where it could be brought to bomb-grade quality.

Whatever its game plan for enriching uranium, Iran is at the same time improving its air defenses. Iran has bought SA-20 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia which could be up and operating by the end of this year. That would significantly increase the difficulty and risk of a strike, which is a complicated operation to begin with since so much of the Iranian nuclear complex is underground.

Israel could well decide it can not wait for Iran to upgrade its air defenses. Israel could also decide that it can't wait for a new American administration to get its act together. Although both Barack Obama and John McCain have said all the right things about support for Israel, the fact is that every new administration has to reinvent the wheel. It could easily take months before a President Obama or McCain decides what to do about Iran's nuclear program. According to U.S. intelligence, which puts the earliest Iran could have a bomb at 2010-2011, there's time enough to do that. But the Israeli estimate of 2009 doesn't leave time to reinvent the wheel.

A very well informed person I know used to totally discount the possibility of a strike against Iran before the end of the Bush administration. Now he puts it at slightly better than 50 percent. One thing is certain: The next President will be staring disaster in the face – either in the form of an Iran that still seems intent on building a bomb or an Iran that has been bombed and has unleashed its terrorist operatives against Israelis and Americans everywhere.

  • David Martin

    David Martin is CBS News' National Security Correspondent.

Add a Comment
by eddy2008-2009 June 27, 2008 6:20 AM EDT
This is a catastrophe that we should prevent it from happening regardless of our race religion and color. It is our civic duty and moral obligation to stop this disaster from taking place. Killing human beings is unjustifiable, regardless of their nationality or race& religion, an Iranian child has as much rights as an Israeli child or Palestinian or an African. We will not take an inch closer step to world peace if we initiate another war. Letting few crazy head of states around the world finish the humanity is something we should prevent it from happening. How does it make you feel if you knew you could of stop the war which destroyed the world the way we know it.
You have a voice, let it be heard
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by eddy2008-2009 June 27, 2008 6:19 AM EDT
fleet stationed in the Persian Gulf, all their bases in Iraq Qatar and Saudi%u2019s, and God knows what they and Hezbollah will do to Israel. Civilian casualty will be in tens of thousands in Iran Israel and Lebanon the event of any attack, Iran will most likely devastate the U.S. non ,this would be at the very beginning of the conflict, surly Israel will not tolerate the death of its citizens and because they have built the atomic bomb to use it sooner or later they will do so against Iran. On the other hand Iran%u2019s government could care less about their civilian casualties.
They say who will die will go to heaven, but the moment the first nuke has been detonated in the middle east, which Iran%u2019s government hopes to achieve,( That will be their survival ticket indefinitely) there will be no force great enough against those who are containing themselves from harming the U.S. government for enforcing their aggressive foreign policy for a world domination and there are many who do not agree with American%u2019s government point of view including China and Russia. An attack on Iran will certainly be the end of Pakistan ruling government and we all know Pakistan does have a nuclear bomb and there are many in Pakistan who will not tolerate an agrarian against another Islamic country.

Reply to this comment
by eddy2008-2009 June 27, 2008 6:16 AM EDT

Iran%u2019s government has been long known as one the worst ruling power in Iran%u2019s history, but they would have been long gone if Iraq had not attacked Iran with the help of United States back in early 80%u2019s.
Iranian people are more Nationalist then freedom seekers, History has shown that, they would rather die for their national pride and save their country then to obtain freedom from their own government. This reality was proven in the 8 years war against Iraq.
If Iran is going to be attacked by any of the two war seeking governments (USA and Israel) which I truly hope would not happen, I fear that it will be the beginning of the end of our time as one civilized world
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by one-american June 26, 2008 1:58 PM EDT
The one variable in this discussion that makes a most convincing argument for striking Iran is - IRAN HAS LONG SUPPORTED INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, AND THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT HAS OPENLY ADMITTED ITS AIMS FOR REGIONAL AND WORLD DOMINATION.
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by memarian1 June 26, 2008 7:21 AM EDT
You either believe in intelligence reports on Iran or not. If yes, you probably know that Iran is far away from a nuclear bomb, given that enriching uranium to a bomb grade is just one step toward acquiring a nuke (and probably the easiest step).

if your answer to the above question is not, why do you rule out the possibility of Iran already having a nuke? that changes the whole equation into a new point of balance.
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by hassan1387 June 25, 2008 10:54 PM EDT
Funny how you''re buying into the false choice fallacy in which we either bomb/sanction Iran, or Iran will get a nuclear weapon. Why not discuss the fact that the Iranians have offered perfectly reasonable compromise offers that would address any real concern of nuclear weapons proliferation, such as creating multilateral enruchment facility in Iran -- an idea widely endorsed by international experts?
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