Can Bush Bounce Back?

By: Greg Kandra
Topics: Politics

(CBS/AP)

President Bush has been having an uphill climb in the polls -- or a downhill slide, depending on your point of view.

And according to CBS News director of surveys, Kathleen Frankovic, that picture probably won't be changing any time soon:

Presidents can rebound. There can be a "rallying point." In his 1973 book Wars, Presidents and Public Opinion, John Mueller studied presidential approval ratings. Simply stated, he found three key factors. First is length of time in office; approval usually goes down the longer a president serves, as whatever he does alienates someone. Second is the economy, which can either help or hurt. And third is long-term war, especially American casualties, which reduces approval..

Mueller also identified what he called "rally points," which can bump up approval ratings, at least for a while. This president's biggest rally point occurred after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. His support also rose (less dramatically) at the start of the Iraq war in 2003. It declined (as Mueller predicted) as that war went on. Most rally points involve foreign threat or action – like George H.W. Bush and the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Ronald Reagan and the invasion of Grenada in 1983, and even Jimmy Carter and the seizure of American hostages in Iran in 1979. There are also "rally points" when the presidency, though certainly not the nation, has been in crisis. The best example of that was when Bill Clinton's lagging approval rating rose above 60 percent after reports of his entanglement with Monica Lewinsky surfaced in 1998.

Mueller also notes that sometimes opinions are too fixed to change.

Is that the case with President Bush? Check out the latest Poll Positions column for more.

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by long_rider July 6, 2007 5:51 PM EDT: The only way the chimp could bounce is to resign, and take the co-chimp with him.; Reply to this comment


by jimc52 July 5, 2007 7:08 PM EDT: It's not just Bush, it's the entire Republican Party apparatus that is in the dog house. I don't think Bush could bounce back he's and his administration have been caught with the goods. The other thing which most hurts the Republicans is the inbred hate and polarization they have for everyone who disagrees with them. They spent the last 25 years (since Reagan was in office)...bad mouthing, slandering and arrogantly impugning liberals and humanitarian thinking. I remember when Reagan humiliated Jimmy Carter with his "there you go again" statement. Under Bush, its been a direct attack on the US Constitution and using conservative think tanks which have used every gray area in it to circumvent democracy in favor of multinational corporate hegemony; under the guise of "moral righteousness," and fundamentalist religion, they have attempted to usurp the basic principles of American Democracy and are rudely arrogant like monarchists with their contempt for those who are not part of their elitist class. As a result, they have isolated themselves and are viewed as not representing the will of the people. Last November wasn't just a loss for Republicans, it was a repudiation of ideologically arrogant right-wing conservatism and they know it.; Reply to this comment


by nyckate July 5, 2007 5:50 PM EDT: perception5

first of all - COngress numbers have been exceedingly low for many years - and now you expected that in a few short months a new majority democratic congress would have cleaned up 16 years of GOP thuggery?? Wanna buy the Brooklyn Bridge too??

Second of all, are you SUCH a fool that you think that a major corporation such as the one that owns CBS has become liberal rather than money-driven??

Just how many times have you purchased a deed to the Brooklyn Brige already???; Reply to this comment


by micma-2009 July 5, 2007 5:49 PM EDT: The Republican spin machine has been in full throttle for years now but it's no longer able to cover for Bu$h's criminal incompetence.

Bu$h won't "bounce" back. In fact, he'll probably get bounced out of office.; Reply to this comment


by r9119111 July 5, 2007 5:31 PM EDT: perception5:

You keep trying to paint this Congress as a do nothing Congress. You know as well as the rest of us that the Democrats don't have enough votes to provide the proper oversight at this point. That is going to change. Your talking points are meaningless and very transparent. You would do much better if you kept your B.S. for NRC meetings.; Reply to this comment


by ericmichael1 July 5, 2007 5:21 PM EDT: All glory is fleeting.; Reply to this comment


by condumism July 5, 2007 5:15 PM EDT: Of course Bush can bounce back! There are alot of FASACIST TRAITORS in the Southern USA that will reignite their hate for America when Barack Obama takes the DNC nomination for president next year. This will then give Bush 2 months to shine in the light of the bigoted supporters of whom are all this lying Fascist Pig can count on these days. No lower life form in America then a White Southern Bigot (which IS THE SOUTH!); Reply to this comment


by perception5 July 5, 2007 4:26 PM EDT: Congress is at 19% approval......... let's see where this DO-NOTINING CONGRESS by November 2008 after another year of getting nothing done except for their "political lynchings"

CBS (Corrupt Broadcasting Station) let's see where your "ratings" are also by November 2008. When will Rick Kaplan drop Katie??? And when will CBS stop "tilting" their news to the "left"?; Reply to this comment