Chicken Little Takes On A Whole New Meaning In The Face Of Avian Flu Threat

I'm not ashamed to admit that I've been hysterically paranoid about the looming avian flu pandemic for a couple months now. What took me over the line between vague interest and genuine fear on this issue was a single line I read in the Washington Post on July 31. The article noted there is an experimental vaccine to combat a deadly virus, but warned:

If the vaccine proved effective and every flu vaccine factory in the world started making it, the first doses would not be ready for four months. By then, the pathogen would probably be on every continent.

I think that timeline assumes some basic level of efficiency in the production process but it seems that very little goes exactly right these days. And there is that "if" qualifier to put a little more fear into the equation. If July 31st was my tipping point, did the media, government and nation reach their own this week?

This is not an issue that suddenly leapt onto the nation's agenda from out of nowhere. A quick database search shows that four major newspapers – the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and Los Angeles Times – had mentioned avian flu in 111 stories over the past six months alone. We've heard scary stories about contagious diseases (remember smallpox and anthrax?) since 9/11.

So what got caught everyone's attention this week?

You could say the exact moment we reached the tipping point came during President Bush's press conference Tuesday when he was asked a question about it. The response was pretty jarring to anyone paying attention. The president said, in part:

I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean. I tried to get a better handle on what the decision-making process would be by reading Mr. Barry's book on the influenza outbreak in 1918. I would recommend it. The policy decisions for a president in dealing with an avian flu outbreak are difficult. One example: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine? It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to affect a quarantine? One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move.

What was shocking about that was the depth of the answer. It's pretty clear this is a topic he's been paying attention to in the midst of a war, catastrophic hurricanes and a Supreme Court nomination. And in a short period of time, he raised the spectre of the 1918 flu pandemic, the possibility of quarantines and the idea the military might be involved in that.

Just as important is that he was asked the question in the first place. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt briefed members of Congress earlier in the week and whatever he told them, it was enough for the Senate to throw $3.9 billion dollars at the problem. Just this morning, Leavitt told CBS' "Early Show" that "no one in the world is ready" for an avian flu pandemic. Concern about this issue is something that has been spreading through Washington, forgive me, like a virus.

It's beginning to sound like a Stephen King-meets-Michael Crichton nightmare.

How much of this is prudent forethought and how much of it is meant to demonstrate the government's readiness remains to be seen. Just because this issue appears to have reached the tipping point and found a place on the agenda doesn't mean it belongs there or will remain for long.

[ronmwanga]

Definitely a \"Tipping Point.\" The linkage to 1918 was that fateful moment. On a side note: it is curious how such diseases -- ones that jump from domesticated animals to humans -- seem to: 1) globalize the world (an authentic pandemic cannot be dealt with without some form of global cooperation), and, 2) force rural economies to improve the quality of life for their citizens (Chinese governmental push to discourage the eating of Civet cat, hygiene; African discouragement of the consumption of bushmeat)

[alphaa10-2009]

Now that bioscientists have autopsied the world\'s deadliest pandemic in recent history down to its last gene, they understand why the 1918 Spanish Flu virus was so virulent. Theirs is a moment of both hope and dread-- hope their information can forestall another contagion by anticipating natural viral mutation, and dread that a terrorist or superpower might weaponize their discovery. Pandemic generation is what Soviet bioscience tried to do, and with the recent collapse of the Soviet Union, its darker secrets are already making their way abroad.

[oneofmanyusa]

Mr. Ververs, I don\'t think you are paranoid, just attentive. This pandemic, and specifically its latest incarnation, Avian flu, has been urgently discussed for at least 2 years by the World Health Organization. (Obviously, a predicted \"unknown\" pandemic for much longer.) What you and I and many others are responding to is the inclusion of it in the Presiden\'s speech. I can\'t detect a political motivation (odd for me) and therefore am also duly alarmed. My \"paranoia\" began with the first human outbreaks in Asia a couple of years back. Have you read up on this particular virus? I have gone as far as analysing the likelihood of the survival of my particular family members, since the likelihood of a vaccine reaching most of us in time seems poor. The notion of quarantine seems archaic in the context of our times. What do you and others think?

[mailpro56]

Okay once again sorry for the bad spelling..I\'m going to type it into word and then use spellcheck

[mailpro56]

Vaughn: Before you move on to another topic, maybe you can tie up some loose ends on my previous post asking why the word G A Y was not posted as gibberish. Also, how often is this website monitored. One of the grat thing about blogs is the immediate feedback you get..not a day later.