Young adults moving out of state at much faster clip

WASHINGTON Their lives on hold for years, young adults are now making big moves in the fledgling economic recovery, leaving college towns or parents' homes and heading out of state at the highest rate since the height of the housing boom.

New census data released Thursday offers a detailed look at U.S. migration as mobility begins to revive after sliding to a record low last year.

The latest numbers show that young adults 25-29 are the primary out-of-state movers; they had the biggest gain in 13 years as they struck out on their own to test the job market in urban, high-tech meccas such as Washington, D.C.; Denver; Portland, Ore.; Seattle; and Austin, Texas.

In contrast, groups that showed some of the most movement in the housing boom of the last decade (2000-2010) — working professionals, families and would-be retirees — are still mostly locked in place, their out-of-state migration levels stuck at near lows due to underwater mortgages and shrunken retirement portfolios.

The demographic shifts, which analysts say could continue for many more years, are once again rejiggering the housing map.

Out are the super-sized McMansions in far-flung suburbs and in the sprawling Southwest, which helped drive rapid metro area growth in the early to middle part of the last decade in places such as Phoenix; Las Vegas; Orlando, Fla.; and Atlanta. In are new, 300 square-foot "micro" apartments under consideration for wider development in dense cities such as New York, San Francisco, Boston and Seattle, which are seeking to attract young single adults who value affordable spaces in prime locations to call their own.

"Footloose young singles are forming the leading edge of the coming migration wave," said William H. Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer who reviewed the numbers. He attributed the recent jump in mobility to pent-up demand among young adults who now are ready to "move on a dime" to land a job opportunity.

"We will see their migration rates swell even higher if the jobs become more plentiful," Frey said. "Families, older professionals and retirees will be latecomers; they have more financial baggage and will need to make more careful decisions about when and where to move."

Richard Florida, an American urban theorist and professor at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management, called the mobility gain an important sign the U.S. economy is getting back on track.

"Young people are moving out of their parents' basements and sampling places and sampling careers again," he said. "After living at home for a while, young people have kind of maxed it out. They are heading to bigger, vibrant cities, predominantly, because they're looking for economic opportunity and building their social networks."

About 1.7 percent of the U.S. population moved across state lines to a new home in the 12-month period ending March 2012, up slightly from 1.6 percent in the previous year.

The share of young adults ages 25-29 who moved to a new state was higher, about 3.8 percent. That's up from 3.4 percent in the previous year and the highest level since the height of the housing boom in 2005, when mobility was 5 percent. The 0.4 percentage point increase in 2012 is also the biggest jump for young adults since 1999, when the rapid rise of Internet startups and the need for young workers during the dot-com bubble drove migration.

Moving rates for college graduates of all ages remained mostly flat at 2 percent.

Among Americans 55 and older, out-of-state moves dipped from the previous year to a low of 0.7 percent. At the height of the housing boom, interstate migration for this group reached well over 1 percent, due mostly to baby boomers opting to retire early to residential hot spots in the South and West.

According to the latest data, some of the biggest winners in recent years have been states such as California, Massachusetts and New York. The states were able to reduce much of the annual losses they suffered in domestic migration during the housing boom, when residents left in mass numbers for wider, more affordable spaces in the Sun Belt and Mountain West. The bigger states also continue to gain relatively more people from higher immigration and births.

Broken down by age and metro area, the Washington, D.C., area ranked at the top of destinations for young adults in the 2009-2011 period, rocketing up from 45th in 2006-2008. The area has been boosted by its promise of more plentiful government-related jobs, as well as a continuing influx of students attending area universities and its up-and-coming neighborhoods.

Texas metro areas including Houston, Austin, Dallas and San Antonio, which already were on the rise before the recession hit in late 2007, have remained a strong draw for young adults, due to in large part to their thriving energy and high-tech industries. They ranked second, fifth, sixth and ninth, respectively, in terms of youth migration.

Denver and Portland, Ore., rounded out the top five at No. 3 and No. 4.

Separate census data released earlier this year showed that most of America's largest cities were growing at a faster rate than their surrounding suburbs for the first time in a century, driven mostly by young adults. That also has prompted city planners to devise ways to attract young adults, who generally desire no-strings-attached apartment living and close proximity to potential jobs.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg in July invited architects to design an apartment building of "micro-units" no more than 300 square feet. The city envisions a future in which the young and the cash-poor will flock to these dwellings, having grown weary of "doubling up" with friends or family in the economic downturn.

In San Francisco, developers are seeking permission to rent out apartments as small as 220 square feet, a little more than twice the size of some prison cells.

Kenneth Johnson, a senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire, said it's hard to predict how much migration ultimately will pick up given the uncertainty in the economy. He said the people making the biggest moves in the coming years likely will be those who feel they must: young adults in search of jobs, couples with small children seeking better schools, new retirees desiring high-amenity recreational living.

"I suspect the recession has sobered the American population about migration," Johnson said.

The census findings are based on the Current Population Survey as of March 2012, as well as comparisons of the 2006-2008 and the 2009-2011 American Community Survey to provide a snapshot of every U.S. community with at least 20,000 residents. Figures from the 2011 American Community Survey also are used to establish broader trends.

[addict42]

I moved from jobless Ohio in 1994 to even-then career opportunity heaven of Washington DC and here 18 years later there has been another mass influx of people to the point a studio apartment in the city rents for $1500 a month on average. Yes you will be cash-strapped but working!

[robintoledo]

I agree. I'm back in my hometown of Toledo, Ohio and the city is a big nightmare. The entire city is rundown with empty, boarded-up or even burned-out houses everywhere. Crime is bad with shootings and arson fires daily. The downtown is empty with skyscrapers boarded up with plywood. The local transit service (TARTA) is lacking in service and basically will take you nowhere. Most of the cars on the streets are cheap and falling apart "rubbishwagons". Wages have been stuck in the $8-9 dollar range for the past 20 years. The acronym here is Stuck Here In Toledo. Those younger people should get out now. I did have the opportunity to live in the greater Cleveland area for some time and will have to say that area is getting its act back together.

[Martha12345]

So Obama has created a new type of "Grapes of Wrath" situation. The man has talent.

[addict42]

Martha, Obama didn't create this it's just the modern economy. There have been mass influxes of job seekers under all administrations both Democrat and Republican. Why stay in place place unemployed and unsuccessful when you can move to work and create a productive life. It's the losers that stay in economically depressed areas/states (rural Southeast)that vote GOP yet blame everything on Obama, when they can chart their own fates.

[patric627]

this article, while good overall, was too filled with broad generalizations and sweeping conclusions, including among the professionals who were quoted.
e.g. while the rate of change from last year to this year (.4%) was the largest in 13 years, it still is making more out of a very small change than is justified. a better comparison would be to give the actual migration rate in 1999. at least they mentioned the actual rates now versus the peak of 2005: that is more illustrative. still, a measure of the rates over a longer period is more relevant, not just the change from one year to the next.
further, that broad statement about 'mcmansions are out and 300 sq. ft. apts. are it...' is pretty silly. yes, housing has taken a hit from absurd highs. but to suggest that the demographic that is building mcmansions (NOT the 25-29 group) will no longer build them, especially when the economy ticks up, is absurd. and further, the move to small city apartments by people seeking a more interesting, challenging life (whether in their 20's, 30's, 40's...) has always been happening. the article made it sound like this was all a new phenomenon. not true.
the overall measure, and the point of the article is valid, but the reliance of various points of generalizations and false conclusions is unfortunate.

[jeannutson]

These trends of higher migration among young adults gives an indication of the severity and the growing harsh impacts of the high unemployment and the troubled economy on them.

[patric627]

did you not understand the article? greater migration rates, particularly among the young, is a positive sign for the economy.

[kroguej]

Positive sign, in the past 25-29 year olds would have had a stable job, a house, and probably starting on their 2nd kid.

[MidRoadAlone]

I graduated in the early 1970s', and had three job offers out of college. But I still took the one 120 miles from home because there was nothing there, and it has declined even futher as a rural area. Even the farmers have left, and many of the family farms are now owned by Amish, the rest by agribusiness.

I retired and moved back to my hometown (I had no desire for Florida), the cost of living is lower, the traffic nonexistent and the stress lower. The only downside is healthcare, I have to drive 50 to 100 miles for specialists, and the local general pratice doctors will not likely be taking on more Medicare patients due to the cuts in reimbursements from Obamacare.

[askagain]

This reminds me of the year I graduated from college. There were three college graduates for each available job. My wife and I moved 800 miles away from where we grew-up for me to find a job in my field. Three careers later, we are happy and successful as we look forward to retirement. America has experienced many migrations of people looking for jobs since its founding. There is nothing new in this.

[skeezix06]

Micro-units aren't going to be popular very long. Aging parents who need someone to live-in and take care of things they're no longer able to take care of but who don't have enough money to pay for senior units or nursing homes and whose children can't afford it either are going to be living together so larger houses will stage a comeback. Also I doubt it takes very long for people to get claustrophobic while in the micro-units and to find out that leaving the micro-units requires constant expenditures that they're not likely to be able to afford with their new lowered wages and lowered lifestyle expectations.

[kroguej]

I heard of a trend of larger homes with micro apartments built into them. You can have multi-generation families but still have some privacy. Not so bad if you have your own entrance and your own kitchenette and lounge area.

[pedalit]

flock away, youngsters! i'll be avoiding the rising traffic congestion, housing costs, crime, and social disconnect that you and your offspring will be contributing to in these up and coming shangri-las by moving elsewhere.

a sincere thanks for this guide, cbs news

[magicman73]

You will also be avoiding the tax revenue the state earns on these people which means you will eventually have less access to quality government programs.

I can't sufficiently articulate just how ignorant your post is. A mor clear example of failing to see the forest for the trees I cannot imagine.

[mjvwsr]

@magicman73 - while I agree that when they leave their tax money follows them. However, what "quality government programs" are you refering to? Personally, I don't know any "quality government programs."