Study: Nearly 1 in 3 U.S. youths will be arrested by age 23

America's youth are in trouble - literally.

Parents and non-parents alike might be shocked to learn a new study estimates that roughly 1 in 3 U.S. youths will be arrested for a non-traffic offense by age 23 - a "substantively higher" proportion than predicted in the 1960s.

The study, posted online by the journal Pediatrics, shows that between about 25% to 41% of 23-year-olds have been arrested or taken into police custody at least once for a non-traffic offense. If you factor in missing cases, that percentage could lie between about 30% and 41%.

What was learned was that the risk was greatest during late adolescence or emerging adulthood. The study also shows that by age 18, about 16% to 27% have been arrested.

"It's a wake-up call," says Robert Sege, MD, PhD, a member of the American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Child Abuse and Neglect, who was not involved in the study.

"By and large, we pediatricians tend to see our patients as victims," says Sege, a pediatrics professor at Boston University. But, he notes, the new report suggests pediatricians must also consider that their patients could become victimizers.

They are also setting themselves up for a destructive and toxic start to life, whether from violent and unsafe behavior, to an increased risk for an unhealthy lifestyle.

The researchers base their conclusion on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, ages 8 to 23. Data analyzed in the new study came from national surveys of youth conducted annually from 1997 to 2008.

Their finding contrasts with a 1965 study that predicted 22% of U.S. youths would be arrested for an offense other than a minor traffic violation by age 23.

Why the Rise in Arrests?

The researchers cite some "compelling reasons" for the increase.

"The criminal justice system has clearly become more aggressive in dealing with offenders (particularly those who commit drug offenses and violent crimes) since the 1960s," the authors, all criminologists, write. In addition, "there is some evidence that the transition from adolescence to adulthood has become a longer process."

From the 1920s through the 1960s, the proportion of the population that was incarcerated remained remarkably stable at about 100 inmates per 100,000 people, researcher Robert Brame, PhD, of the department of criminal justice and criminology at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, tells WebMD. Today, Brame says, that figure has soared to 500 inmates per 100,000 people.

More aggressive treatment of offenders has led to a decline in the crime rate, Brame says: "I think it's pretty clear that some violent crimes have been prevented by having people locked up in prison."

But he questions whether the expense of incarceration -- $25,000 to $30,000 per person per year -- is the best use of the money. Perhaps the funds would be better spent on programs that not only could lower the crime rate but carry other benefits as well, such as stopping a person from committing a crime in the first place, Brame says.

"Criminologists and economists are wrestling with that question right now," he says.

Brame, the father of three young children, says he and his colleagues usually publish their research in journals read by criminologists, not pediatricians. But they wanted to reach out to pediatricians because they're especially well-suited to heading off problems.

"Our main purpose in this paper was to get pediatricians to think about this and maybe have a broader discussion with their patients than they otherwise would have."

Young people might feel more comfortable talking with their pediatrician than their parents about such issues as drug use, Brame says: "The pediatrician has training and skills to connect that person with appropriate programs and interventions."

By Rita Rubin

Reviewed by Brunilda Nazario, MD

SOURCES:Brame, R. Pediatrics, study received ahead of print.Robert Brame, PhD, professor of criminal justice and criminology, University of North Carolina, Charlotte.Robert Sege, MD, PhD, professor of pediatrics, Boston University.

[Elm04]

I can't believe the data was not broken out by gender, or if it was, that it wasn't reported as part of this synthesis. My suspicion is that boys are significantly worse off than the girls in this respect and that will directly tie into how poorly boys are performing in school - the phenomena of male underachievement - a pervasive problem across socioeconomic status and ethnicity. Read Peg Tyre's, "The Trouble With Boys".

[devcyr3n]

Welcome to the new pharma-military industrial complex, citizen. Show us your papers before you leave the store, everyone is a suspected criminal. Open your backpacks and bags before entering the school, because brown people have knives and guns. Kids are all terrorists in training who need to be classified, cataloged, drugged, and tracked. Your kid's guidance counselor sends status reports to your kids weekly shrink. If you aren't buying their meds, you're a bad breeder and will have your parental status revoked. If you can't afford the meds, you just "aren't saving enough".

[sobobx]

The good news is that we history buffs can continue to sit back and observe the downfall of a great empire from within, just as we have dreamed of having a ringside seat for the downfall of the Roman Empire. Someone, please pass the popcorn before the home invasion.

[rightbehind]

They'll be arrested for protesting their futures being robbed. The republicans have brought back the robber barons. We need to start reducing the ranks of police because they only look out for the wealthy. We need to do away with elected police because they are nothing more than lap dogs for the wealthy.

[Danize]

mswolfstock: maybe you should get a rabies shot?

[alaskan1st]

Let's see the stats on how many judges have invested in private prisons. I know of one that has. And he advised me to do the same.

[rightbehind]

I remember seeing that in the news. He wasted those kids lives to line his pockets.

[swami96b]

So prison populations were stable until the 60's, then shot up.
While... hmmm... psychiatric institution populations, at the exact same time, shot down. Coincidence?

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/asylums/special/excerpt.html

[foddermail86]

Very good call. A lot of homeless from this event as well.

[skeezix06]

That is a major contributor to our current problems.

[makotds]

This article both ignores and perpetuates the problem with raising children in this modern day age. The lack of courtesies, morals and understanding right and wrong through early age parental discipline allows children to develop into respectful adults. The liberal side of todays society has taken away the right and power of the parent to decipline their children (the Dr Spock syndrome). With all the hype in this article about young people getting into trouble who do they tell the kids to go to for help, not their parents but to a "councilor" who they want you to believe know more about your children than you do. This logic is tantamount to throwing gas on a fire because it is a liquid. Why is it that the so called "authority" always knows more about your life than you do?

[WhenIReplyYouCry]

have you been in jail for smoking too much crack or something? "The liberal side of todays society has taken away the right and power of the parent to decipline their children (the Dr Spock syndrome)." This prolly makes a lotta sense in your head.

[Lerianis4]

True, When. The fact is that society has not taken away the power and right of parents to discipline their children. What we HAVE taken away is the right of parents to abuse, physically and emotionally, their children under the guise of 'discipline'.

Simple put, whacking a child is not the same thing as discipline. It is nowhere near being discipline, it is child abuse that only teaches a child that if you are bigger than someone else, you have the right to cause them physical pain and injury.

[Agustin64]

Educate or incarcerate; in California we spend 5k per student per year and 50k per inmate per year that's not including serious offenders which can cost upwards of 100K per year. In a state that has zero consequences for crime and is more interested in prisoner rights than victim rights what do you expect? If the rest of the country sees California as an ideal model then 1 in 3 is going to grow to 1 in 2, but look at the bright side, as more of these young people are finger printed and samples of DNA added to law enforcement data bases crime in the future will be easier to solve.

[33maxwell]

My goodness.. I'll tell you one thing that changed the landscape from the 60's predictions, is the Nixon Drug war starting in 1972..

Since then we have spent over a trillion dollars fighting a weed that will still be here long after all the money is spent..

We arrest one of our own for simple possession of marijuana EVERY 27 SECONDS.. OF COURSE we have a lot of youth in jail.

Get rid of the draconian Marijuana war, and the kids will stop going to jail en-masse.

One kid every 27 seconds for POSSESSION of a silly weed that harms them far less than the legal alcohol or cigarettes...

We have to stop this, or next decade it will be one kid in every 2 is in jail for possessing marijuana, and one of them likely will be yours.

[Danize]

Marijuana goes well with a slovenly, lawless lifestyle...

[Lerianis4]

Danize, hardly. They said the same thing about sex outside of marriage, homosexuals, etc. at one time. That is just a bunch of ********.