Political Eye
By

Jake Miller /

CBS News/ November 1, 2012, 12:15 PM

Polls remain close only five days before the election

Five days from the election, the presidential race remains incredibly close, according to a series of national and state polls released yesterday and today.

Two national polls released last night showed a tied race. The latest numbers from the Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll have President Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney tied at 49 percent among likely voters. The WaPo/ABC poll surveyed 1,288 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus three points. Responses gathered in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy after the storm made landfall, according to ABC News, "are in accord with comparable data from nights before the storm struck."

The WaPo/ABC poll also showed that a large majority (78 percent) of Americans rate Mr. Obama's response to the hurricane favorably, while only eight percent score the president's response negatively.

And last night's Fox News national poll of likely voters further affirms that the race is a dead heat, with both candidates earning the support of 46 percent of respondents. The Fox poll surveyed 1,128 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus three points. Fox News noted that "Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall."

Meanwhile, a slew of new state polls paint a similar picture, with the candidates deadlocked in some surveys and President Obama nursing a slim advantage in others.

A pair of new Wisconsin polls show divergent momentum, with Romney gaining ground in one survey but losing ground in another. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll of likely Wisconsin voters, shows the president with a slim and diminished lead, besting Romney 49 to 46 percent. The last Wisconsin poll from WSJ/NBC/Marist, released in mid-October, showed the president with a five-point advantage.

In contrast, a Marquette University poll of Wisconsin voters shows the president reopening a fairly strong lead over Romney, with 51 percent of respondents supporting Obama and only 43 percent supporting Romney. The last Marquette poll showed the candidates virtually tied, with Obama at 49 percent and Romney at 48 percent. Both Wisconsin surveys had a margin of error of plus or minus three points.

The latest WSJ/NBC/Marist poll from Iowa shows the president ahead by six points among likely voters, 50 to 44 percent. The poll was conducted October 28 and 29, and had a margin of error of plus or minus three points.

And new WSJ/NBC/Marist numbers out of New Hampshire show a close race, with the president holding a statistically insignificant lead over Romney, 49 to 47 percent, among likely voters. The poll was conducted October 28 and 29, and had a margin of error of plus or minus three points.

A new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania also shows the president in the lead, though not by much - he outpaces Romney among likely voters in the Keystone state by four points, 49 to 45 percent. The Franklin & Marshall survey was conducted between October 23 and 28, and had a margin of error of plus or minus four points.

A Roanoke College poll of Virginia's likely voters shows Mitt Romney with a five-point lead over the president, 49 to 44 percent. The results contrasted with the latest Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times poll of Virginia voters, which showed the president ahead of Romney by two points, 49 to 47 percent. Roanoke interviewed 638 likely voters between October 23 and 26. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3 points.

And finally, in all-important Ohio, the race remains very close, according to a poll from the University of Cincinnati - 48 percent of respondents supported the president while 46 percent supported Romney. Obama's two point edge in the poll is slightly smaller than his five point lead in latest Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times Ohio poll, which had the president ahead 50 to 45 percent. The University of Cincinnati poll surveyed 1,182 likely voters between October 25 and 30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 points.

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
21 Comments Add a Comment
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RobertVBrand says:
I've yet to hear about a voter choosing a candidate because he had "momentum". Or because he polled high. Yet that seems to be what reporters and anchor persons care about most.
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RollotheNorman says:
The elephant is ambling toward the elephant's graveyard all the while trumpeting "I've got the big MO, I'm ahead in the polls, etc., etc."
LOL Lie down and die. Fat Cat money couldn't by the election, RepubliCONs are left naked with no redeeming qualities whatsoever.
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JV1970 replies:
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YOU'RE MISTAKEN! IT'S A JACKASS! The jackass is ambling toward the jackass graveyard all the while honking "HEE-HAW HEE-HAW I've got the big MO, I'm ahead in the polls, etc., etc. HEE-HAW HEE-HAW!"LOL Lie down and die. Fat Cat money couldn't by the election, DemoCRAPS are left naked with no redeeming qualities whatsoever
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mindnumbidiots says:
Love how its only the liberal brain washed morons that comment here
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frank11217 replies:
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and you doubt get your view of the world from the objective folks at fox news
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stupa5 says:
See what the top GOP thinks about Romney

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRJa2OaiwWw
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carriegart says:
Surley to God, the people of America will not pick Romney to be the President. All he does is lie and lies and lies. He,s still lieing about
Jeep Chrysler moving to China and the CEO FROM JEEP CHRYSLER,(APPARENTLY A FRIEND OF ROMNEY) SAID HE WAS A LIAR. He flipflops on everything, from knowing whats it like to clean up a storm like Hurricane Sandy......HE compared it to a football field when he played high school football and the field was littered with garbage and the football team had to clean ir up...........ARE YOU KIDDING ME..........This storm was horrific and he compares it to a football field where he had to clean up trash from the field and he knows how to clean up a disater.....people have died, New Jersey and New York and other states are in serious condition and this YOYO
THINKS HE IS READY TO BE PRESIDENT..........What would he do to the people of America if GOD FORBID IF HE DID GET IN........they would lose everything
they ever beleived in and more. He said he would source ot FEMA by PRIVATIZING IT and make State Legislative look after there own disaster also . Romney well at Bain Capitail layed of 2200-2500 employees and sourced out the work ......WHERE YOU ASK ............ WELL ELSE BUT CHINA.
Great GUY whos in this for himself and his family and his close CRONIES.
A VOTE FOR ROMNEY IS A VOTE FOR NEW WAR, AND THE BILLIONAIRES AND MILLIONAIRES OF AMERICA WILL GET A TAX BREAK. Mean while the 47% of the people that he says don't matter.... should matter by going out and showing this lieing idiot with no brains where to go.....Home without becoming PRESIDENT.....THATS WHAT HE DESERVES
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Dancing-in-the-Streets replies:
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.HE compared it to a football field when he played high school football and the field was littered with garbage and the football team had to clean ir up...........ARE YOU KIDDING ME..........This storm was horrific and he compares it to a football field where he had to clean up trash from the field
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I really think ROmney still has the mentality of a rich high school kid!
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GoGoUsa says:
If and when Romney loses the Republicans will go into that full denial mode they do so well. They'll blame the media, they cry fraud, they will blame everyone and everything except for themselves. It really is a sight to see.
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JV1970 replies:
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The REAL sight to see will be you Democratic liberals kicking and screaming and throwing tantrums like two year olds Tuesday night when Romney wins! Talk about BIG babies! That's what you'll be!

And as for the blaming, you Democrats do the same thing! Obama's done nothing BUT blame George W. Bush for everything since he's been in office!
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RichardAWelch says:
First, by now the media needs to stop using "national polls" as the race is not EVEN nor do national polls mean anything at all and mislead readers. What matters are the swing states that Obama is almost certain to take Ohio and from the above, Wisconsin. Romney can not get to 270 electoral votes without Ohio, even if he takes Florida and Virginia. I know the press needs to keep this rolling as much as possible.. but with an 80% change of re-election by most 3rd party sources, we can be pretty sure we know who's going to win or loose on Tuesday. This week has been all about "Hero Obama Saves Storm Victims" versus "Romney Lies In New Jeep Ad". How does this help an already faltering Romney?
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silasdoright says:
I just read that complaints have been made in Ohio, Kansas and North Carolina that voting machines are changing votes for Romney into votes for Obama. I thought someone should mention it since you probably won't hear about it from any of the "reputable" media sources.
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RichardAWelch replies:
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and they may want to add that Mitt Romney's son has invested in a voting machine company that will have machines in several states, including Ohio. Let's tell both sides of the story friend.
jrm125 replies:
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Any links? Credible sources?
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Dancing-in-the-Streets says:
In related news.......Intrade has Obama at 68% - Romney at 32%

: )
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silasdoright replies:
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please see above comment
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