Some polls "worth putting in the waste bin," says Obama camp

Eager to rebut any sign of slowing momentum in the closing weeks of the race, Obama campaign officials are pushing back forcefully against a new Associated Press-GfK poll that indicates Mitt Romney has erased President Obama's double-digit advantage with women voters.

"If you look at the aggregate of all the polls, what you see is that the president has a very strong advantage among women," White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer told reporters during a flight from Tampa, Fla., to Richmond, Va. "In all battleground states, (Mr. Obama) continues to have an advantage everywhere and his support among women is a key part of that."

The new AP/Gfk poll has Mr. Obama and Romney tied among women at 47 percent each. In a previous AP/GfK poll, Mr. Obama had a 16-point edge among women.

Overall, the poll found Romney with a small nationwide lead over Mr. Obama among likely voters, 47 percent to 45 percent.

Pfeiffer argued that polls from all media outlets are becoming less reliable as battleground state voters grow weary of calls from pollsters, noting that the same AP/GfK poll indicates Obama has cut into Romney's lead among men, and now trails among male voters nationally by just 5 points. "It's traditional that more men have been Republican," noted Pfeiffer. "When you see polls that completely run counter to that historical fact, they're probably worth putting in the waste bin."

But not every Obama campaign official has gotten the polls-are-bad memo. Just yesterday, senior adviser David Plouffe highlighted a CBS News poll that showed the president with a five-point lead in Ohio.

"That's not a small number," Plouffe said. "That's what we won in '08 during a landslide in the state of Ohio."

And the Obama campaign has sent out several emails trumpeting a new Time Magazine poll that shows the president with a huge advantage over Romney, 60 percent to 30 percent, among early voters in Ohio.

Strong early voting turnout is key to the Obama campaign strategy, both to signal momentum and to insure that less likely or "sporadic" voters get plenty of encouragement to cast their ballots.

"Democratic primary voters are outvoting Republican primary voters by a wide margin across the state" of Ohio, noted Obama campaign national field director Jeremy Bird in a memo released Thursday. He said state data shows early voters in precincts that went for Mr. Obama four years ago have cast 53,000 more ballots this year than those in precincts where John McCain, his Republican challenger in 2008, was victorious.

Obama campaign officials said they were surprised and pleased by former Secretary of State Colin Powell's endorsement on "CBS This Morning," and Pfeiffer said the president called Powell from Tampa to thank him.

"Colin Powell did not give us any indication of what he was going to do. (The president is) very appreciative. He's an American hero. And I think his critique about Governor Romney's approach on foreign policy is something that, as people make decisions in this election in the remaining 12 days, could certainly have some influence."

Powell, who describes himself as a moderate Republican and endorsed Mr. Obama four years ago, called Romney's foreign policy approach "a moving target" on "CBS This Morning."

"One day he has a strong view about staying in Afghanistan, but then on Monday night he agrees with the withdrawal. Same thing in Iraq....sometimes I don't sense that he has thought through these issues as thoroughly as he should have."

Pfeiffer was also asked about Mr. Obama's use of an expletive in an apparent reference to Romney in an interview with historian David Brinkley for the magazine Rolling Stone. Early excerpts indicate Mr. Obama said, in response to news that a six-year-old supported him, "You know, kids have good instincts...they look at the other guy and say, 'Well, that's a bulls****er, I can tell.'"

Pfeiffer said he had not seen the transcript, but "what is true is that trust is a very important part of this election. The president is someone who says what he means and means what he says. Romney's answers in the debate...raise real questions about that."

[jimisrael1]

obama has won. if i get one more phone call from the nra or the stinkin southern racists or the mormans i will unlease my dogs on them. opps, i love my dogs so i would never let them run into the night. i'll bite them myself. the liars and crooks and fanatics have lost. god bless america and deliver us from evil. amen

[Ablative_Absolute]

Wow ! Obama is continuing to surge in the "Electoral College" polls. Furthermore, early voting is indicating that Obama is gaining even more momentum in the crucial swing state: Ohio. It is apparent that Obama has been consistently ahead throughout this process.

It is the "Electoral Votes" that are more relevant here (not the "popular votes"). You can see the Electoral Projection map for yourself at the link below:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[thomosward]

LOL. THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN WASN'T SAYING THAT 3 WEEKS AGO!!!

WHAT A COMPLETE FARCE THE ENTIRE LEFT IS.

[RollotheNorman]

Mittmentum is so yesterday:

Been dead and reversed for three days now, do try to keep up CBS.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Mitts chance of winning is one in four and shrinking steadily.

[hillzhaveays]

I always laugh when libbies triumphantly post Lib Blog links as though they've provided incontrovertible evidence of something, usually some BS argument they carry a torch for.

A lib blog is evidence only of the author's opinion, much as a conservative blog is evidence only of the author's opinion.

[LorettaAdams]

DRUDGE REPORT SHOCK POLL: ROMNEY FIGHTING FOR HIS LIFE IN N.C.

North Carolina Civitas: Romney 48 Obama 47



Developing......

[LorettaAdams]

And when you factor in the 2:1 baked-in early voters for Obama, that means that Romney not only would have to overcome the 2:1 early Obama voters, but he would he would also have to be polling at 55% or better in the swing states on the day of the election to break even with the early voters as well as surpass the Obama totals for those who were actually voting on election day. In nearly all the swing states, Obama is expanding his lead as of today; therefore, he will be capitalizing on this already baked-in early voter lead if this holds out until a little over a week from now. Florida will likely go to Romney, but VA and CO remain to close to call. If Obama gets Ohio and Nevada, that is all he needs for 271. He could lose Colorado (tied), Virginia (tied), Iowa (expanding lead), and New Hampshire (expanding lead).

[LorettaAdams]

The trend-lines since Tuesday have been going downward. Romney was +7 Nationally and is now +3 according to Gallup. But, again, the national polls are meaningless. Let's say Gallup has Romney at 65% and Obama at 35%, does that affect NY or NJ? No, it does not. Both of those states will still go for Obama. My point I am making is that the the respective swing states have been utilized as mini-"laboratories" over the past year with money, ad buys, and GOTV efforts...taken as a whole...decidedly driving up Romney's negatives, lifting Obama's positives, and registering a record number of Democrats over 2008 as well as converting those registrations to ACTUAL Obama votes by a 2:1 margin in many of the swing states. Essentially, the ad buy and campaigning has had the effect of turning many of the swing states like Ohio into behaving like many of the solid blue states that will typically go blue despite any national poll---as in the NYand NJ examples above. When you couple the lopsided nature of Romney's poll numbers in these swing states (often polling 2-5% points below Obama) along with the already baked-in 2:1 lead in early voters that Obama has, that means that not only does Romney have to make up ground to break even with the voters who have already early voted for Obama by a 2:1 margin, but he also has to close the 2-4% gap the he trails Obama amongst likely, registered voters in that swing state on the day of the election. Both of these obstacles are HUGE, and must be overcome with RESOUNDING NUMBERS... the likes of which, while not impossible, are HIGHLY IMPROBABLE at this point.

[annroberts4]

Let me guess the polls where Obama is down are the ones they want to disregard. Romney will win this race because America is tired of Obama and his failed policies. He's been running for office for so long now that he pays no attention to the state of this country. It's very sad!

[AdLucem]

Obama will win this election because he continues to hold the lead in "Electoral Votes." The polls regarding "popular votes" are not as relevant as the electoral votes. Obama has consistently been ahead in the electoral votes and continues to hold this lead. He is also winning in key swing states like Ohio.

Furthermore, it is Richard Mourdock's horrific "rape" comments that have now even further sealed Romney's fate. These remarks are as offensive and horrifying as Todd Akin's ugly "rape" comments. These disgusting and reprehensible remarks from the GOP are occurring at an alarming frequency for a very good reason: Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin represent the "voice" of the GOP of the 21st Century.

All of these factors will contribute to Romney's inevitable loss of this election. You can see the "Electoral Vote Forecast" at the link below:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

The numbers don't lie. It's simple basic math. Romney will lose this election.

[hillzhaveays]

Alarming frequency? Calm down for pete's sake. Republican nuts have been saying things like that since the 80's. You libs get all excited about it every time. like clockwork.

[LlanoArbol]

I just don't think women are that stupid to support a candidate that has a questionable track record supporting women's issues. At the very least, a political party that evokes the idea that pregnancies from rape is somehow in God's plan is over-the-top. Similar issues apply with Hispanics . . . military families, seniors, students, minorities, and working class Americans. These Americans know they are at risk of being swept under the rug, dismissed, and abandoned by this candidate and his Congressional supporters.

[hillzhaveays]

The GOP doesn't "evoke" the idea rape is somehow God's plan you idiot. A nut who claims membership in the party thinks that.