Choice to replace Inouye may have long-term impact

FILE - In this Nov. 6, 2012 file photo, U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye speaks at the Japanese Cultural Center in Honolulu. Inouye, a decorated World War II veteran, is under observation at a Washington-area hospital so that doctors can monitor his oxygen intake. Inouye, who is 88, is the longest serving Senator. He's completing his 50th year in the chamber. He said Monday, Dec. 10, in a statement, that he is, quote, "for the most part, okay." (AP Photo/Marco Garcia, File) / Marco Garcia

This article originally appeared on RealClearPolitics.

From 1959 -- the year Hawaii achieved statehood -- until this week, Daniel Inouye represented the state in Washington as its first member of Congress and then as the nation's longest-serving senator.

With Inouye's death on Monday at the age of 88, Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie must soon appoint a successor -- a decision that could be among the most consequential in the state's political history.

Due in part to the nature of the electorate in the nation's 50th state, whoever replaces the nine-term senator may well end up holding that seat for another multi-decade tenure.

"Hawaii is a solid-blue state, and Hawaii loves incumbents," said political analyst and Hawaii Pacific University professor John Hart. "So unless he appoints someone who's clearly a caretaker, we're electing our next senator-for-life in this process."

According to procedures that were established by a state law passed in 2007, the Hawaii Democratic Party has 21 days to provide Abercrombie with three names for consideration to fill the vacated seat.

In 2014, a special election will be held to determine who serves what would have been the final two years of Inouye's term.

The process for selecting a successor is likely to be conducted quickly, since Democrats will be eager for his replacement to be seated when the new Congress convenes in January.

A major consideration for Abercrombie will be the "last wish" letter that Inouye drafted to the first-term Democratic governor just before his death. In it, Inouye asked that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who was first elected to Congress in 2010 after a 12-year stint in the Hawaii state Senate, take his place.

Even if Inouye had not weighed in on the matter, Hanabusa (pictured) likely would have been the front-runner to fill the vacancy, and the appointment of anyone else would come as a surprise to many close observers of Hawaii politics.

"The thing that would raise the least eyebrows and cause the least problems is the Hanabusa pick," Hart said.

If appointed, Hanabusa, 61, would join incoming Sen. Mazie Hirono in the state's Senate delegation. Last month, Hirono, 65, easily defeated former Gov. Linda Lingle in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka.

A potential complication to appointing Hanabusa, however, would be the subsequent vacancy of her House seat in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, which would have to be filled by a special election.

The district -- which encompasses the urban area in and around Honolulu -- is the less solidly Democratic of the state's two districts and would be vulnerable to a GOP takeover if a high-profile Republican such as Lingle or former Rep. Charles Djou were to run.

Current Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz is among the other names that state Democrats likely will consider recommending for Inouye's seat. Among other, less apparent, possibilities is former Democratic Congressman Ed Case; he has a Washington resume but is unlikely to be considered seriously, according to Hawaii sources, because his relationship with Inouye and the state party establishment has been tumultuous.

In the event that Abercrombie decides to appoint a so-called caretaker to serve for the next two years, he might consider two former governors: Ben Cayetano and John Waihe'e (if their names are submitted).

Asked what factors the governor will consider in making his selection, Abercrombie communications director Louise Kim McCoy declined to offer any hints.

"Yesterday -- and, quite frankly, even today -- the governor has been focusing on wanting to pay respects to Sen. Inouye and also respecting the wishes of the family," McCoy said.

After the news of the longtime lawmaker's death was reported Monday, Abercrombie used a press conference that had been scheduled to discuss his budget plan to deliver remarks on the passing of the decorated World War II veteran, who was one of the last living icons of the Senate.

"He left us with a legacy of honor and service to the people of Hawaii, to the people of this nation, without parallel," Abercrombie said. "Our responsibility is to not just carry on but carry through on his total devotion and commitment to Hawaii and its values."

[cleareye]

Regarding Hawaii politics and Governor Abercrombie's appointment to replace deceased Senator Inouye, Conroy apparently knows as little as all the other members of the MSM who have reported on this story.

Abercrombie is clearly the target of pressure to appoint Colleen Hanabusa to the vacant US Senate seat. Without doubt it is coming from labor unions who favor Hanabusa's background as a labor attorney. The letter from Inouye to Abercrombie indicating his preference that Hanabusa replace him, was no doubt leaked by Inouye insiders, who long held heavy sway over key institutions and decision making in Hawaii, in part by keeping ranks tightly closed around Inouye.

In his two years as governor, Abercrombie has developed a reputation for being willing to step on any toes he deems necessary for "the good of the state". His response to leakage of Inouye's wish for Hanabusa to replace him, was to shake a finger and comment furiously in public that the letter was written to him alone, and the content is his to release to the public when he is ready. Given these two facts, it seems unlikely that Abercrombie will feel any compulsion to bow to pressure to adhere to Senator Inouye's request.

Furthermore, anyone who knows Hawaii politics and the value of Senator Inouye's seniority to his home state knows that Hawaii is unlikely to begin the 113th Congress with two freshmen both over the age of 60. There are two very able, much younger politicians serving as Lieutenant Governor (Brian Schatz) and Senate President (Shan Tsutsui) ages 40 and 41, respectively. Assuming they are both interested in the position, either one would be HIGHLY qualified and a much better long term investment in the State's future. Tsutsui has yet to announce his interest in the position. Schatz is widely known to be interested, and the smart money would bet on him.