By

Rebecca Kaplan /

CBS News/ November 7, 2012, 12:12 PM

Ryan emerges from campaign with higher profile, 2016 options

Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney is greeted by wife, Ann Romney, Republican vice presidential candidate, U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), and wife, Janna Ryan after conceding the presidency during Mitt Romney's campaign election night event at the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center on November 7, 2012 in Boston, Massachusetts. A

Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney is greeted by wife, Ann Romney, Republican vice presidential candidate, U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), and wife, Janna Ryan after conceding the presidency during Mitt Romney's campaign election night event at the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center on November 7, 2012 in Boston, Massachusetts. A / Matthew Cavanaugh

BOSTON Paul Ryan won't be helping Mitt Romney lead the country in a new direction from the White House. But the Wisconsin congressman famous for his small-government budget blueprints has emerged from his first national race with high visibility and a top spot on any list of 2016 presidential prospects.

The immediate future for Ryan lies on Capitol Hill. As chairman of the House Budget Committee, Ryan will be making an abrupt transition from the glare of the campaign trail to the back rooms of Capitol Hill as Congress heads into a lame duck session and negotiations on how to avoid a "fiscal cliff" of automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

Ryan did win an election on Tuesday night: the race for his House seat in Wisconsin, where state election law allowed him to run concurrently with his vice presidential bid. Unless he resigns from the House - a fate that longtime aides and close confidantes have a hard time imagining -- Hill staffers expect he'll have no trouble obtaining the necessary waiver on term limits to keep his chairmanship in the next Congress.

"I think at the end of the day he's committed to advancing these ideas in a political forum, which suggests elected office," said Matthew Spalding, a vice president at the conservative Heritage Foundation and a longtime Ryan friend.

Ryan issued a statement Wednesday addressing his short-term plans. "I look forward to spending some time with my family in the coming days and then continuing my responsibilities as chairman of the House Budget Committee and representative of Wisconsin's First Congressional District," he said, after saying he was "immensely proud" of the GOP campaign and grateful to nominee Mitt Romney for putting him on the ticket.

There was a time when Ryan considered quitting Congress: in 2006, after Democrats won both chambers. It was a "gut check," moment, as one longtime aide described it, and after much soul-searching the episode led Ryan to write his first "Roadmap for America's Future." The document marked Ryan's head-first jump into the sensitive issue of entitlement reform and made him into a popular target for Democrats. But it also made him the intellectual leader of the House Republicans, a stature that will only be enhanced by his vice presidential run and the debt and spending issues at the top of the national agenda.

"With the fiscal cliff issues and everything that's looming ... he's going to be center stage in the negotiations and at some level will have claim to be titular heir to the Republican Party," said Steve Schmidt, a Republican strategist who worked on John McCain's 2008 presidential bid.

The big question that remains, then, is what the next cycle will hold for Ryan. At the request of many conservatives, he explored the possibility of his own presidential bid this year, but ultimately opted to sit out the cycle due to the pressures on his young family - his children are 10, 9 and 7 - and a sense that Congress was the best place to change national policies.

He has had no conversations about 2016 among his closest staff, according to a longtime aide who was granted anonymity to speak more freely. If he decides to run, he will do so from a more advantageous position. Close to 40 percent of people hadn't heard of him before he was nominated, but according to CNN/ORC polling, that had dropped to single digits within about 10 days. His favorability has stayed

"He's well respected and he's done a good job as the VP candidate," said Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol. He predicted Ryan would start with an edge among the deep bench of Republicans who may consider a run, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Indeed, Ryan proved to be an effective campaigner who even held audiences captive when he began using a slideshow about the rising debt at town halls.

The Romney campaign projected rosy images of Ryan as a legislator in search of bipartisanship, but his appeal at this point is concentrated among conservatives who like his prescriptions, which include steep cuts in taxes and spending, and restructuring Medicare as a voucher program.

Rep. Chris van Hollen, D-Md., the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said Ryan is a passionate advocate, not a lawmaker who pursues compromise. Both are necessary to tackle the nation's deficits and debt, he said. "Will he continue to be the standard bearer for the far right of the Republican Party, or will he demonstrate a new willingness to work together in order to meet our budget challenges?" van Hollen asked of Ryan in an email.

It's a question that underscores the strengths Ryan would bring to a presidential primary race, and the strategic decisions he'll have to make with an eye on his future.

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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    Rebecca Kaplan covers the 2012 presidential campaign for CBS News and National Journal.

45 Comments Add a Comment
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WhereisOT says:
(Paul Ryan gave an interview in which, defending his position that there should be no excuses for abortion, he referred to rape as a "method of conception.")

These same neanderthal control freaks who seem to condone rape, yet seem to want to destroy everything that might give the Youngest to the Oldest, People of Color, Women...all hard Working folks a leg up...

"caring" more for the unborn....then after the first breath is drawn....Go to hell, You are on your own...

What planet are these nuts from...
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1988JAck says:
Higher profile as a bigger nut. The GOP needs to leave these right wing nuts behind if they have any hope of winning in the future.
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skeezix06 says:
I see the GOP has committed themselves to even more ultra-radical policies that led to their most recent defeat.
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skeezix06 says:
I see the GOP has committed themselves to even more ultra-radical policies that led to their most recent defeat.
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lawyertom1 says:
Among the looney tune right, yes. But, not vis-a-vis the general public.
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Katie_L says:
WI went for Obama even with supposed "favorite son" Ryan on the GOP ticket. The guy is a beady-eyed little weasel with about as much serious intellectual power as a gerbil. His draconian ideas are ridiculous. My feeling is that if his voucher system for Medicare is so grand, perhaps he and all his rich GOP buddies in Congress should immediately be switched to such a program themselves instead of the Cadillac one they now have and see how well it goes for them and for their families. If he's the GOP's rising star, heaven help them. Maybe he and Palin should hook up for the 2016 election -- that would be a ticket that late-night comedians would love!
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RobertVBrand says:
Don't expect Ryan to resign -- or ever risk -- his seat in the House. He's made his fortune of 1.5 - 7 million dollars (no one can be more sure since he wouldn't release his tax returns) on House paychecks. Except for one short period when his cronies weren't in the House and he worked as a " consultant" for Ryan Construction, he has never worked outside Congress in his life.
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cubscout09 replies:
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His wife inherited a chunk of that fortune. That was what caused the brief uproar when he amended his financial statements.
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RobertVBrand says:
Said Mitt, "Paul and I have left everything on the field" --Well, not quite everything for Paul, who was reelected to the House after filing for his old seat as well as the vice-presidency. Might as well protect your day job.
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cubscout09 replies:
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I wonder if Ryan would have kept his seat if the Wisconsin GOP hadn't Gerrymandered his district.
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twmat311 says:
Hasn't Lifetime offered him a reality TV series yet? It worked well for the last VP runner-up. Maybe a shot at DWTS?

Actually, I want seats at the 2016 Christie vs Ryan debate...imagine Christie to him: "what're you, freaking nuts???"
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Lindag20 says:
The higher his profile got, the less people liked him. The people of Wisconsin wouldn't vote for him.
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RobertVBrand replies:
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But the people of his congressional district reelected him.
cubscout09 replies:
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Um, Ryan's district was redrawn to favor his re-election.
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