How Obama won four more years
U.S. President Barack Obama stands on stage after his victory speech at McCormick Place November 6, 2012 in Chicago, Illinois. / Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
This post originally appeared on Slate.
In the end, it wasn't close. Barack Obama won re-election handily over Mitt Romney with 303 electoral votes, well more than the 270 electoral votes needed. Of the nine battleground states that were up for grabs, Obama won 7 of them, losing only North Carolina (Florida remains to be called). But while Obama won those states, he didn't crush it; he won instead, a string of precise narrow victories. He didn't win because his leadership during Hurricane Sandy blew all those swing votes his way (though it may have helped). The president won because he ran a permanent campaign, keeping his offices open in the battleground states from his 2008 campaign, tending his coalition assiduously, and because he relentlessly defined his opponent. His was the better campaign. The Democratic candidate of "hope and change" beat the big business Republican in the trenches, in one state after another.
Obama's next four years
President Obama's tactical victory is clear when you look at the election returns. He has no grand mandate that comes out of Tuesday's numbers. He has been re-elected, but his policies did not win the day. Voters didn't turn their faces up to the vision he painted they way they did in 2008. When voters were asked which candidate had a vision for the future, Romney won that question in exit polls, 55 percent to 43 percent. Asked about Obama's signature achievement, health care, voters did not approve. Forty-nine percent said they wanted it repealed in part or whole. Voters also said the federal government was too large.
Voters are deeply divided by race and age. The president can credit strong support from women. He led by 11 percentage points among women, while Romney led by 7 points among men. There was also an Obama advantage among younger voters. He grabbed a majority of those under 45. Older voters broke for Romney. Obama lost the white vote by a larger margin than in 2008 when he got 43 percent of the vote. On Tuesday, he got just 40 percent of the white vote. They represented virtually the same share of the electorate as before. But Obama made up for that deficit by winning handily with minorities which represented an ever so slightly larger share of the vote.
The best news the president can find in the exit polls was that he fought the economic question to a tie. Voters who cared about the economy picked Romney by only one point over Obama, 49 percent to 48 percent. Still, Obama simply neutralized his opponent; there's nothing in that number that suggests a mandate. Sixty percent of voters backed Obama's call for tax increases for those with incomes over $250,000. But that's a proposal that will have no life beyond the campaign trail. Polls show that voters have long supported this idea. It doesn't happen because the proposal will never shake loose enough of the partisan opposition to make it real.
Now the candidate of "hope and change" must bind up his wounds and prepare himself for another round. Half of the country is going to be upset by this outcome, and the president, who once knew how to make the music of reconciliation, will have to whip up some kind of stirring message in the months to come.
The White House knew what tone to strike when it released its first post-election photograph, which was not a vision of jubilation but almost relief. In his remarks, Obama immediately moved to start the reconciliation. "We rise or fall together as one nation," he said. He then praised Romney and his family: "From George to Lenore to their son Mitt, they give back through public service and that is a legacy that we honor and applaud tonight." He promised to sit down with Romney in the coming weeks to "talk about moving this country forward." He said the vote was a vote for action to focus on jobs and that in the weeks and months ahead he would work with the other party. "Whether I earned your vote or not ... you have made me a better president. I return to the White House more determined than ever."
- Complete 2012 election results
- Four more years for battle-hardened Obama
- Romney concedes: Ryan and I "left everything on the field"
What was ratified on election night was the benefit of a permanent campaign and the talent of the Obama team. The much vaunted Obama ground game appears to have been a real thing. (David Axelrod's candidate won by more than a whisker, and Axelrod got to keep his; he'd pledged to shave off his mustache if Obama lost Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Minnesota.) His campaign team was so formidable that it made up for all the inadequacies, vulnerabilities, and missteps (remember that first debate?) of a weak incumbent president in a sputtering economy. He pulled out every stop possible: Bill Clinton, Bruce Springsteen, Stevie Wonder, and Katy Perry in a dress that was as tight as Obama's margin in Florida.
A few theories of political science were upheld. Debates didn't change the outcome and late deciding voters don't break for the challenger. Nine percent of voters said they made up their mind with three days to go, and they broke for the president, 51 percent to Romney's 44 percent.
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The dems have been rewarding poor behavior for years,from welfare for all the single unmarried mothers to the layabouts on SSI
The state of California is a perfect example,liberal social and union benefits have bankrupt the state ..where people(white,legal working class) are leaving in droves due to high taxes
Democrartic party, especially after being given more food stamps, free 'Obama phones' and
'Obama bucks' in exchange for votes.
So, Romney - or any other Republican who would have run - had 3% to work with, a pretty
difficult task to say the least. And, with Obama's 'ground game' that somehow got as
many as 99% of Ddemocrats voting in inner cities like Philadephia, Romney hardly had
a chance, storm Sandy or otherwise.
One thing the mostly young and / or minority voters who elected Obama will now have to
content with making $45,000 or so incomes plus benefits with Obama's new system. It's not
a whole lot more than the n $20,000 minimum guaranteed income for anyone using all their
new benefits including increased food stamps, welfare, disabiliy, etc. The days of free
enterprise where incentive and hard work paid dividends and made millionaires
are all but over n ow as the United States if following the trends of Greece and
France where, as the economy tanks so do the masses' incomes; only a small elite is
making any real income.
Obama was more about METHOD OVER MATERIAL. Obama's forces rounded up almost any
inner city folk who was breathing and got them to the polls, one way or another,
and not always legal (according to many illegals, themselves).
The Obama victory reminds me of the recent San Francisco Giants' World Series Victories
two out of three years where they somehow made it, arguably, without a top caliber team.
Ownership did whatever it could to skirt issues of talent for other means of 'winning' -
like rounding up its largely young, liberal fan base with half price tickets and other
enticements, turning up the PA system and other psychologoical advantages along with the new
prerequisite social marketing, and, finally, bringing in questionable journeymen players
other teams don't want, who suddenly become 'instant stars' such as the four Venezulelan
players named Melky, Scutaro, Sandoval and Blanco, who suddenly all hit far above their lifetime
averages or homerun productions, especially late season and in the World Series -
much like the 2010 team with sudden wonders like Ross and Torres - more than enough
to allow the Giants to miraculously make mincemeat out of one top team after another
(Cincinatti, St Louis and Detroit and in 2010 Philadephia, Atlanta and Texas). If it
weren't for a couple big late season injuries to star players the Giants would have
probably won it all in 2011,too.
It's called 'Win at Any Cost.' Lilke the giants team, which was one of the weakest
hitting teams to start the season,, Obama brought one of the weakest records ever to
re-election l. Both played on young, impressionable markets, with both being 'bought' in
by perks , whether discount tickets and 'promises' of a world series' or free cell phones
or more food stamps, etc.) Both used social marketing almost to the border of unfairness
with the Giants getting Sandoval on the AllStar team , and others, without big numbers.
Obama got more voters with questionable tactics, eg an unheard of 99% turnout in Philadelphia's
inner city precincts. And, the 'giveaway' mentality spreads like wildfire as the momentum
builds.
So, it's a different world today. Perhaps old values don't matter as much any more.
A person on American Idol may win more for his or her look than the music. Negative
political advertising can win out over honest, positive messages. And baseball players
convicted or suspected of using illegal drugs are not necessarily looked down upon anymore,
eg Barry Bonds and Melky Cabrera, who will likely join the Giants again next year after
being one of two giants players suspended this season.
Looks like Kruschev may be right , too, when he said back in 1956 that not only
will Russia ' bury you' (the U.S.) but that the US would become communist through it's
own leaders! If not communist yet , certainly socialism is already upon us.
Wouldn't it be More Productive if Our Elected Leaders Started Working Together as AMERICANS for AMERICANS and AMERICA, instead of just bickering, stalling and posturing for the next election as democrats and republicans! The American People have had it with this unproductive BS! We need both parties to actually start looking out for the best interest of the US Citizens who elect them and who they're supposed to represent. If they stop fighting and actually start working together to solve our problems, America and all Americans will be much better off.
Took a vow to defend my country, foreign or domestic but not my country anymore. Don't come crying to me. Wishing you and yours all the worst.
Took a vow to defend my country, foreign or domestic but not my country anymore. Don't come crying to me. Wishing you and yours all the worst.