No more surprises? Obama, Romney fight to finish
AP Photo
Now that the final round of pre-election jobs numbers are out, the Obama and Romney campaigns are facing a new reality: For the first time, the parameters of the presidential race appear finally to be set. There are no more debates, no more jobs reports, no more changes in strategy coming down the pike. Something unexpected could take place in the next four days, but it probably won't change the candidates' final push. Their chips, at this point, seem to be in.
That doesn't mean President Obama and Mitt Romney are taking it easy, of course. They're now feverishly crisscrossing the battleground states to make their closing arguments and argue over who is the true candidate of change. At a stop in Wisconsin Friday, Romney cast Mr. Obama as a divisive figure looking to blame the country's problems on others and promised to be a "post-partisan president."
"President Obama promised change, but he could not deliver it," Romney said. "I promise change, and I have a record of achieving it."
Mr. Obama, not surprisingly, doesn't think much of that argument.
"I know what real change looks like, because I've fought for it," he said in Ohio, pointing to his education policy, the rebirth of the American auto industry and investments in clean energy. He argued that "after all we've been through together, we sure can't give up now."
For most of the campaign, Romney's argument has been predicated on the notion that Mr. Obama has failed as a steward of the economy, which happens to be voters' top issue. A good economy come Election Day meant that argument was likely to fail, while a poor economy meant it had a good chance of working. So where do things stand now? The economy appears to be recovering, but not as quickly as anyone would like; unemployment has finally dropped below 8 percent, but just barely. In other words, things appear to be either just good enough to keep the president in office or just bad enough to force him out. No wonder the race is so close.
Election night: When will we know the winner?
While most polls show the two candidates splitting the national vote, the battleground picture appears to favor Mr. Obama by a small margin. CBS News estimates that there are 255 electoral votes that now lean toward Mr. Obama or are solidly in his column, compared to 206 for Romney. If those votes all go his way - and we should note Mr. Obama's tally includes Ohio, which the campaigns continue to fiercely contest - he needs just 15 electoral votes to win reelection from the remaining eight battleground states.
Polls suggest the president is not likely to get them from North Carolina, where Romney holds a slight lead. But surveys have also consistently shown Mr. Obama with a slight edge in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, states that offer a combined 26 electoral votes. In Florida, Virginia and Colorado - which offer another 51 electoral votes - the race appears to be a tossup. (Early voting numbers in Florida and Colorado have been encouraging for Republicans, though they look better for Democrats in Iowa and Nevada.) Romney is also trying to expand the map and compete in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, though polls suggest Mr. Obama holds a clear lead in all three states. Because Romney needs to win more battlegrounds to reach 270, and because he has fewer states that appear to be tilting his way, he has to be considered the slight underdog in the race.
But let's stress that word "slight." In most states, the race is tight enough that a 2 to 3 point swing in Romney's direction would move the electoral votes into his column - and that assumes the polls are right, an assumption many Republicans have questioned. The challenge for Romney thus seems to be how to get a boost in the final few days. Mr. Obama is unlikely to hand him a gift (in the form of a gaffe) before Election Day, and it didn't help to effectively lose three days of coverage to Superstorm Sandy -- especially since the storm gave Mr. Obama a chance to showcase his leadership. There's no question that Romney got a significant bump following the first presidential debate. But the question lingering over the race now is this: Was it just a little too small - or, perhaps, just a little too early?
With most voters having made up their mind, the winner is expected to be decided largely based on turnout. In most battleground states (Wisconsin is a notable exception), Democrats are seen as having the superior "ground game" and are thus better mobilized to make sure their voters show up. But Romney's voters are more enthusiastic, which suggests his voters don't need to be spurred to get to the polls.
One emerging wildcard: The weather. On the heels of Sandy, which is already poised to complicate voting in some states, meteorologists say the East Coast may have to contend with a nor'easter that hits around Election Day. It's too early to know how or even if the storm will hit. But if it hits hard, it could depress turnout in a number of swing states - a development that would be more likely to favor Romney.
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Second, I'm going to tell you again that I can hardly wait until Tuesday night! There is going to be such a howl coming from you liberals such as the world has never known and it won't be a howl of joy either! You are in for a BIG shock!
Please do not believe that the Republicans are the party that support the military.
Back in the 60's and '70s it true that the Press and the Dems made it clear that they hated the military. But that was 40 and 50 years ago. AND - if you read the list of boys on the Wall in Washington you will see lots of Detroit's and Chicago's and other big cities that were in the Dems column so it's not the boys we are talking about here. It's the Parties - Dem vs. Rep.
Since the Rep's are making a big deal out of how they love the military - let's take a look. Here is a list of the Rep leadership and their service. These are the guys that are calling the shots in the Republican party.
Karl Rove - chose not to serve
Newt Gingrich - chose not to serve
Jon Kyl - chose not to serve
Rush Limbaugh - chose not to serve
Eric Cantor - chose not to serve
Kevin McCarthy - chose not to serve
Sean Hannity - chose not to serve
Mitt Romney - chose not to serve
Paul Ryan - chose not to serve
And of course we need to discuss those sons of privilege (Ann's five boys) - well Romney did not teach his own sons that service to the country is important - and now he wants you to think that he values it? Don't believe it.
And then there is Sequestration (see http://www.auburn.edu/~johnspm/gloss/sequestration) which the Reps would have you think is all because of the White house. It is by Congress - not the president. The Republican house is the group that put the Defense budget in danger of being sharply reduced.
And this is a good article too - http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/24/barack-obama/obama-says-congress-owns-sequestration-cuts/
Believe me there is blame to be shared by both the Republicans in Congress and the White House.
But in the long run all of this means that the Republicans are not supporting the military than anyone else.
On Tuesday please do not blindly pull the Rep handle because you think they support the military because they don't!
Vote for who you believe has the character to lead us forward. May God continue to bless America.
I'm voting to reelect President Obama.
I know I'm going out on a limb here and some of you will disagree with me but that is what I honestly think is going to happen on November 6th.
Now let's wait and see.
Intrade has Ohio's chances of going to Obama at 68.7% & chances of going to Romney 32.3%
For the whole election its Obama 67.8% and Romney 32.3
: )
"I believe right now we are currently ahead. Internals show us currently ahead. I honestly think that Romney is going to carry Ohio. And you know I haven't been saying this.
I now believe its going to happen," Kasich said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
I am a lifelong Democrat, now moderate Independent, who is so disappointed with Obama after four years that it would be hard to put into words.
His presidency has been a disaster on every level and it is painfully obvious to me now that he was simply not ready to be the President of the United States and the leader of the free world.
All of your insults to the other side only go to show that you have no grasp of the political, economic and social realities of this election, nor do you comprehend the great difficulties this nation is facing.
You sound like a 10 year old school girl on the play lot throwing insults at some other girl that you don't like.
Please grow up and try to learn something of value before you post again.
I'm going with Nate Slater's site, having correctly predicted 49 out of 50 States in the 2008 election:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Daily algorithm calculations. As of yesterday, he's giving 83.7% odds on Obama (305.3 electoral votes) to 16.3 % odds for Romney (232.7 seats).
We'll see.....