Will independents really decide the election?

Much is made every presidential election year of the independent vote as candidates attempt to appeal to this voting bloc that doesn't identify with either Republican or Democratic ideals - or, perhaps, with a little bit from each. They might be fiscally conservative and socially liberal or they might want to exhibit their independence. Regardless, they are increasing in size and significance.

In the swing states, the number of independent or unaffiliated voters has risen since 2008. For instance, in Florida, the number of unaffiliated voters in 2008 was 2.1 million; this year it's 2.5 million - more than Republican and Democratic voter registration combined. North Carolina was home to 1.4 million unaffiliated voters in 2008 and 1.7 million now. Republicans there saw no gain in voter registration in the past four years and the Democrats only 100,000. Nevada boasts 40,000 more non-partisan voters this year while the Republicans lost 9,000 voters and the Democrats gained only 10,000. In Colorado, unaffiliated voters surpassed registered Republicans and Democrats. (Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin do not ask voters for party affiliation.)

The evidence behind the growing number of independents is abundant. A recent Pew Research poll from August shows a similar trend. Based on interviews with 13,000 registered voters across the country, one-third of respondents indentified as independents - an increase from 27 percent in 2004. Although personal identification does not equate to official voter registration status, the findings are clear: a large number of Americans are shifting away from political parties.

The trend has been on the upswing for decades. A separate Pew Research study from 2009 looks at party affiliation of all Americans based on Gallup surveys. It shows that only 15 percent of Americans identified as independent in 1945. The number gradually increased until its height in 2009, with 36 percent identifying as independents.

"What we found over the years is that party identification certainly shifts with events, but the most notable trend is the growing number who... reject partisan labels," said Michael Dimock, associate director of research at Pew. Dimock said the party association tends to decline as the public becomes disenchanted with the political process and political institutions and become frustrated with partisan politics - factors that don't help the incumbent.

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Tired of eight years of a Republican presidency, independent voters shifted toward Democrat Barack Obama in 2008, who espoused a politics focused, as he famously said, not on blue states or red states but on the United States. It was a campaign theme that spoke to independent voters, who helped propel him to victory in 2008, winning 52 percent of independents to John McCain's 44 percent.

Recent polls, however, show that Mr. Obama will have a difficult time replicating those numbers this time. The latest Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times poll shows that Mitt Romney is leading among independent likely voters in Virginia by a striking 21 points. He is also leading among independents in Ohio by six points and 5 points in Florida.

Both Romney's and Mr. Obama's campaigns are separately touting their advantage in early voting in key battleground states. There are so many ways to spin the numbers it's difficult to determine who actually has the advantage. But it is just as difficult for the campaigns to know who the unaffiliated voters cast their ballots for. A Romney aide conceded that they look at polls to determine how independents are voting. With 18 percent of early voters in Florida not associated with the major political parties and 40 percent in Iowa not affiliated, it's a number that the campaigns have to worry about.

"It's not a good predictor for how people vote," CBS News' polling director Anthony Salvanto cautioned about registered independents, indicating that it's difficult to tell which party they back.

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[ForestWalk]

If you are in the military or a veteran (like me) (Vietnam) ('71-'73) you are probably an independent - its what we lerned - and these comments are for you.
Please do not believe that the Republicans are the party that support the military.
Back in the 60's and '70s it true that the Press and the Dems made it clear that they hated the military. But that was 40 and 50 years ago. AND - if you read the list of boys on the Wall in Washington you will see lots of Detroit's and Chicago's and other big cities that were in the Dems column so it's not the boys we are talking about here. It's the Parties - Dem vs. Rep.
Since the Rep's are making a big deal out of how they love the military - let's take a look. Here is a list of the Rep leadership and their service. These are the guys that are calling the shots in the Republican party.
Karl Rove - chose not to serve
Newt Gingrich - chose not to serve
Jon Kyl - chose not to serve
Rush Limbaugh - chose not to serve
Eric Cantor - chose not to serve
Kevin McCarthy - chose not to serve
Sean Hannity - chose not to serve
Mitt Romney - chose not to serve
Paul Ryan - chose not to serve
And of course we need to discuss those sons of privilege (Ann's five boys) - well Romney did not teach his own sons that service to the country is important - and now he wants you to think that he values it? Don't believe it.

And then there is Sequestration (see http://www.auburn.edu/~johnspm/gloss/sequestration) which the Reps would have you think is all because of the White house. It is by Congress - not the president. The Republican house is the group that put the Defense budget in danger of being sharply reduced.
And this is a good article too - http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/24/barack-obama/obama-says-congress-owns-sequestration-cuts/

Believe me there is blame to be shared by both the Republicans in Congress and the White House.
But in the long run all of this means that the Republicans are not supporting the military than anyone else.
On Tuesday please do not blindly pull the Rep handle because you think they support the military because they don't!
Vote for who you believe has the character to lead us forward. May God continue to bless America.

[YesImright]

Bill Clinton chose to draft Dodge, then drop bombs on Serbia, fool.

Always focused on the right and those who chose to serve their country in other ways.

But hey, I bet you voted Draft Dodger over War Hero (GHW. Bush).

Or A guy who, as far as i know, has never even been asked what he thought about in regards to enlisting Barak Obama, why ask when there are so many republicans in the primary to ask.

So I bet you voted for a guy who never even though about the military vs a war hero in John Mccain.

Every single poll/survey shows Service members vote Republician by at least +20 points.

Sarah Palin has a son in the service, but who cares right? Wait, that was THE question of the 2004 election, which Congress People had kids in the military.

Do you think Obama's kids will serve? NEVER, and who would even dare ask when there are 100s of Republicans in office who have kids you can ask.

Hey did Obama send 20,000 extra troops to Afghanistan? Call him a chicken hawk then.

[tpaine1]

In a striking change from 2008, Romney is winning the early vote 52% to 43%. Obama is going to lose Herbert Hoover sized and for, pretty much, the same reasons.

[dj_chi]

Vegas and Irish bookies still give Obama much better odds of winning. And they don't throw their money away.

[YesImright]

Actually in many cases short odds mean more bets, more money paid out.. Long odds means less bets less money paid out.

Again, liberal math and logic fail.

[mikesfilms]

WAR ON WOMEN:

Women under Romney and Teapals: 1000 anti-abortion bills, curtailing contraceptives, R.Mo Todd Akins thrashing rape victims, VA. Gov "ultrasound" McDonnell forcing devices in women needing abortions, Rush Limbaugh calling student Sandra Fluke a "****." R.IN Richard Mourdock: pregnancy from rape, "a gift from God." Romney will change the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v Wade. Even mentioning abortion might land you in jail. VOTE FOR ME SUCKERS.

[tpaine1]

Why are Democrats always so concerned about what's below the beltline than what's between the ears? I think the fact that fewer than half our minority students NOT graduating from our failed government run high schools is VASTLY more important.

[YesImright]

Mourdock call CHILDREN a gift from God, the lies even from the media continue so that we can have a society free of consequences.

Unbelieveble how all these liberals think about is sex all the time. They worship a guy who was a sexual predator because he of course need to keep abortion legal to sweep the evidence under the rug.

Sandra Fluke purposely enrolls in a school run by Catholics so she can sue them for birth control. this is how these people work. They undermine all the freedoms of society in order to have only one freedom they crave sexual immorality.

[javi_latino]

Romney is offering to work in a bipartisan way with Democrats, and he has a record that shows he works well with Democrats. Obama didn't bring us together, he did not offer the change we can believe in. Obama passed healthcare through democrats alone...he forgot that Republicans and Independents are also Americans. Obama didn't focus on the economy his first two years as he should have, instead he focused on Healthcare. He polarized us, he divided us, he did not give us a strong economical recovery. Romney is offering and will deliver the real change that Americans, main street, desperately need. As an independent I vote for Romney this 2012, and said no to Obama's one sided strategies. Romney will bring us a strong economical recovery, new ideas, will bring down our deficit so that our children don't have to die paying it, and is ready to work with Democrats. Romney even wants to expand the Ohio economy, he wants to bring stronger coal research and jobs to Ohio. Romney wants to bring our unemployment in Ohio from 7% to 4%. Romney does not want the new national normal to be a weak economical recovery but that it instead be a robust recovery as we have always experience. Romney all the way!

[YesImright]

Romney got a fair amount done and governed in a moderate way in Ma.

As usual now that he is gone Democrats who control 90% of the gov't take all the credit for what wen t right and blame Romney for everything that went wrong and the media here has no integrity either.

In 4 years the guy took no salary, the guy that followed him bought a Cadillac, expensive drapes and a desk and remodeled the office.

In 4 years I never once heard the guy complain about how he couldn't get anything done with only 10% Republicans, except when they refused to put a ballot measure out for gay marriage.

[icanseeyou]

THE PLEDGE
"Show unyielding opposition to the
presidents ECONOMIC INITIATIVES."

THE GOAL
"The single most important thing we
want to achieve is for President Obama
to be a one-term president>:

THE FOLLOW THROUGH
BLOCKED - The Jobs Bill
BLOCKED - The Veterans Jobs Bill
BLOCKED - Small Business Tax Break
BLOCKED - Payroll Tax Break
BLOCKED - Paycheck Fairness Act

STILL
5.6 Million Jobs Created

How strong would the
economy be if congress
had vowed to fix it rather
than sabotage it?

Take steps towards a congress that REALLY works.
VOTE ALL BLUE ON TUESDAY

[tpaine1]

Only problem is Obama LOST 8 million jobs so he's still in the red on job creation. "The most Americans EVER in poverty and on food stamps" should embarrass Democrats instead of calling for "four more years" of the same crony socialism that's made Al Gore rich.

[GOP-R--Con-Men]

Can any supporter of republicans cite any republican stance, policy or legislation that favors struggling Americans over big oil, big pharma or teh super rich? And if you can't why do you support them?

[fiberglass3]

Can you name something the republicans DID do over these past 4 years that actually benefitted you?

[boondoggles]

I find it difficult to believe that anyone that loves their country and their children would vote for Obama. Do they not care that he has schackeled their children with an extra six trillion dollar debt. He has resided over two downgrades in our credit rating, had an ambassador and three Americans murdered on his watch and did nothing to help them despite their repeated cries for help. Anyone who votes for this president should hang their heads in shame.Yes, the indpendents will speak November 6th and overwhelmingly vote this president out of office.

[GOP-R--Con-Men]

Sure, why vote for President Obama when he eliminated pre existing conditions allowing anyone including children to get health coverage when they couldn't before. President Obama also allows children to stay on their parents heath coverage until the age of 26.

Now what were you saying about President Obama and children?

[YesImright]

Those things you mention con man only adds to debt and will crush those who pay for the insurance.

[cubscout09]

Koch Industries (Major contributor to Romney/Ryan) is trying to liquidate my Step-Brother's pension fund, in an industry that has an inelastic demand.

Revenge? I demand revenge.

[YesImright]

George Soros has paid off all the news networks and own media matters to ply you with propagda.

Bill Gates funds a losing proposition at MSNBC to further more Dem propganda.

Rich people run the Dem Party too.

It's called a double-standard. You think it's a slander to talk about the Koch Brothers while looking the other way as Obama let's Wall Street fleece the publicn.

congrtas you are part of the problem.

[GOP-R--Con-Men]

Can any supporter of republicans cite and republican stance, policy or legislation that favors struggling Americans over big oil, big pharma or teh super rich? And if you can't why do you support them?

[JeremiahEG]

The premise of your argument assumes a zero sum game which is a flaw. Capitalism which "... has improved the lives of so many people" (http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/30/fact-and-comment-opinions-steve-forbes.html) provides opportunity for all those willing to take risks bringing products and services to market.

There is no actual struggle between teh (sic) super rich and struggling Americans. The "struggle" was invented by Democrats in power to fool people like you into believing they care about your interests. By dividing people into groups, this is accomplished.

The 99% v the 1% is the same story. You do realize that as an American citizen you're part of the world's 1%, right? Upon what moral ground will you stand, when the world's 99% demand your wealth?

But I digress and will address your policy regulation question.

Which President created the EPA, signed both the Clean Water Act and The Marine Mammal Protection Act and proposed universal health care? Nixon. Republicans, despite what you've been trained to believe, are excellent stewards of the environment balancing the needs of humanity with the scarcity of our world's resources. They also care deeply about individuals. Rewarding success when deserved and reprimanding failure when needed.

[GOP-R--Con-Men]

You're wrong but like most republican teabaggers, why let facts get in the way of the truth. Democrats want the wealthy to pay more, republicans do not, Democrats want to cut the 4 billion dollar a year subsidy to big oil, republicans do not.

[ocman_nguyen]

Let's hope independents, republicans, patriotic democrats will make Romney the
45th president of the USA.
4 more days to go to not have another 4 more years of misery.

http://wp.me/p28mLX-s0

[GOP-R--Con-Men]

Please tell us how congressional republicans blocking and stopping any legislation from President Obama to help struggling Americans have made things better? They do factor into the equation right?

[boondoggles]

Independents will elect the next president. Polls are showing Romney running in the double digits higher than Obama in the independent voters. This president has been a disaster, has no good reason to even be asking the electorate for another four more years. Four more years to destroy the economy, ruin our relationships with our allies, embolden our enemies, 44 million people on food stamps. Can't wait to vote this president out of office.