GOP sees path emerging for Romney win in Iowa

Mitt Romney cancelled his events due to Hurricane Sandy and offered his campaign buses to distribute relief supplies. Jan Crawford reports Romney campaign officials believe the storm will "freeze" the race in place until the campaign resumes. / EMMANUEL DUNAND

DES MOINES, Iowa A month ago, as Mitt Romney's campaign appeared to be foundering on just about every front, even allies of the Republican nominee believed his hopes for recovery to be particularly grim here in Iowa.

At the time, he was failing to generate much enthusiasm in his western Iowa stronghold, and President Obama's vaunted ground game in the state -- which had launched him toward the Oval Office in 2008 -- was humming along with an efficiency that threatened to put the state out of reach.

Particularly concerning for the Romney camp was the extent to which its internal polling showed the challenger getting blown out in Obama's eastern Iowa strongholds of Black Hawk and Linn counties, which encompass the population hubs of Waterloo-Cedar Falls and Cedar Rapids, respectively.

Romney did not have to come close to winning in either of those counties, his team had calculated, but in order to have a shot at the Hawkeye State's six electoral votes, he needed a respectable showing in each.

Just when many Republicans here were about to give up hope, the former Massachusetts governor squared off against Obama in the Oct. 3 debate. Overnight, this traditionally Democratic-leaning swing state became one of his most inviting targets.

"A month ago, I could hear the sounds of the Obama train steaming up and leaving the station. He was poised to pull away, which would have had impact up and down the ballot," said longtime Iowa Republican strategist Bob Haus. "Then, a debate happened and the race was recast in 90 minutes. It's hard to tell you what an impact it had."

Since his commanding performance in Denver, Romney has not only closed the gap somewhat in Black Hawk and Linn counties, he has seen a significant boost in the intensity of support in the dark-red, soon-to-be liquidated 5th Congressional District represented by Steve King.

In the 2012 caucuses, Rick Santorum dominated that deeply conservative western section of the state, while Romney struggled to connect with the heavily evangelical and rural population (just as he did in his 2008 caucuses loss to Mike Huckabee). But the Republican nominee now appears to have built a comfortable, double-digit lead over Obama in most of those counties, and his campaign expects turnout there to be sky-high on Nov. 6.

Perhaps even more important for Romney, internal polls have shown him closing Obama's narrow advantage in swing voter-heavy Scott County, where the GOP standard-bearer held a rally Monday in Davenport.

In his remarks introducing Romney at that event, Iowa Republican Gov. Terry Branstad noted that he had won the county in each of his five gubernatorial campaigns and suggested that the candidate's economic message would produce similar results on Tuesday.

Additionally, the Romney campaign believes that it is outperforming its goal in the heavily white, blue-collar counties that dot southeastern Iowa, an encouraging sign for any statewide Republican candidate.

"Our state Senate tracking polls are moving [Romney's] way in swing districts, and the sweep of endorsements over the weekend gives him a sense of momentum," said Iowa GOP operative Steve Grubbs. "I predict he wins Iowa."

Indeed, The Des Moines Register's backing of Romney this past weekend came as a surprise to just about everyone in Iowa politics.

In spite of the kerfuffle that resulted from the Obama campaign's original stipulation that the paper's editorial board interview the president off the record, there was little reason to believe that the state's most widely circulated newspaper would back a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since 1972.

The endorsement came as a pleasant shock to Iowa Republicans, who had become well-practiced over the years in arguing that newspaper endorsements don't matter.

Still, despite the Register's reach and the high regard with which its political coverage continues to earn, there is little question that its influence has waned.

But taken in combination with endorsements by Iowa's three other major dailies -- The Cedar Rapids Gazette, Quad Cities Times, and Sioux City Journal -- Romney's ability to win over top opinion-makers in the state is emblematic of a remarkable turnaround, especially given the tsunami of positive media coverage Obama enjoyed here four years ago.

"Momentum is with Romney now," said Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, adding that the newspaper endorsements "can't hurt and might help."

Iowa GOP operative Chuck Laudner was more buoyant about what the Register's endorsement signaled.

"It punctuates Obama's poor campaign effort here and Mitt's obvious momentum," he said. "The entire Republican ticket is gaining statewide. In a sense, the Register's endorsement says, 'It must be over if even the Register picks Mitt.' "

But even Iowa Republicans who are most convinced that the tide has turned admit that Obama's extensive ground operation here -- which never left and has been growing steadily since early 2007 -- remains a powerful weapon for the president.

Romney has nothing in place that comes close to matching Obama's micro-targeting get-out-the-vote machine, which one state Republican described as "startling in its attention to detail."

Still, the latest RCP Average of Iowa polls shows Obama holding onto a lead of one point in the state. And in a "state of the race" email to supporters on Monday, Bill Burton of the Obama's Priorities USA super PAC wrote that the contest there is "a dead heat," with the president ahead by one point in the group's latest internal poll.

Perhaps the area of the state that each campaign will pay closest attention to heading toward Election Day is Polk County -- the most populous of Iowa's 99 counties and home of the capital, Des Moines.

Romney strategists believe that the Republican can lose Polk County and still carry the state, but they must keep Obama's margins down in the capital region. That's one reason they dispatched Ann Romney to Des Moines on Tuesday evening, where the former first lady of Massachusetts hosted the first Romney rally since the campaign suspended all of its overtly political events in light of the devastation from Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic area.

Vice President Joe Biden will be close on her heels when he arrives in Iowa on Thursday for rallies in Muscatine and Fort Dodge.

[sloan5]

Mitt Witt is going to lose the election! He is lying himself to the White House! Do we want a flip flopper of a Pres?

I will vote for Obama and I know most of my friends will vote for him too.

The Pres has acco,plished a lot more than any other Pres in history. Can not trust Mitt Witt! No core values!

[stupa5]

See what the top GOP really thinks about Romney

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRJa2OaiwWw

[Maerzie]

If Romney wins in ANY state, I'd say we have some very LAZY people , who take their democracy for granted, and haven't done a stitch of researching anything about the guy or evaluating Romney's lying and deceptiveness! No true American, in his right mind, would just vote on all the lies in the multi-millions of dollars of slanderous ads! Romney should have NEVER made it into a presidential campaign because he isn't honorable presidential material at all, but, because he did should be enough to tell people the deterioration that has happened to our education of voters, our values system, and our carelessness about our country. Becoming so lazy that one is gullible to lies is very dangerous. Too many believe our country is immune to dictatorship or the tyranny we see on TV, in other countries. Unfortunately, we are only as immune or as vulnerable as THEIR attention and watchfulness cares!Nothing proves how easily people can get duped, as Hitler duped his nation, as our current election. How many voters are even ignorant that Republicans in Congress intentionally BLOCKED
progress for our economy, and even voted AGAINST Obama's Jobs Bill THREE times?? Or, that Romney actually mad many of his millions by sending HUNDREDS of our good jobs over to China?? Sadly and alarmingly, quite a few!

[RollotheNorman]

Here's a better headline: GOP sees mirage in Iowa.
LOL, this must some of that Willard surge that ended last week. Obama has gained in every poll except, predictably, Gallup and Rassmussen since about Tue last week.

[ludvig1-2009]

Last Des Moines register endorsement of Republican candidates were Nixon and Agnew both of whom had to resign in disgrace because of separate criminal activity, Nixon with Watergate and Agnew because of past happenings in his home state. One can only wonder where this endorsement will lead.

[drmirabilis]

So Romney has one good debate night, and Obama has one bad one (probably because he was distracted by the growing tensions in the Middle East that day between Turkey and Syria). Because of that one debate, some people changed their whole way of thinking about the race. They decided to accept the Republican policies of favoring corporations and billionaires over average working people, the same policies that led us into the recession in the first place, the policies that have led to corporations and CEOs continuing to make gigantic profits while average people's adjusted incomes are lower than they've been in decades. The same people who decided to accept the Republican line refuse to care that Romney has repeatedly lied in very big ways according to numerous nonpartisan sources, that he refuses to give specific numbers for his budget, that he has shifted his positions again and again from the primary debates to the presidential debates to what he tells the billionaires about the 47% behind closed doors at $50,000 a plate fundraisers. Even if I didn't support Obama, even if I didn't realize that Obama at least tries to help the middle class and has accomplished many goals that he set out to do, I wouldn't vote for Romney. I'd feel foolishly taken advantage of if I did.

[hillzhaveays]

Drinking lots of Koolaid and getting a very substantial diet of Lib Blog Drivel, I see. Thanks for the input that been repeated over and over and over and over by every liberal partisan hack between here and the Mississippi.

[sandiegopete]

Well, Drmirabilis, you posted your thoughts and in return you got the usual personal attack from the right. The Republicans can't campaign on what they believe in because their proposed policies are so repugnant to the general population. So, they just make lame references to Jonsetown and say you don't know anything. They just don't like the idea of the truth being said. The Republican campaign consists of name calling and nothing else.

[Necroscope84]

I love all these Romney landslide claims. Only landslide will be reality settling in as Obama wins reelection. Funny how they won't even mention which polls anymore or if they do it's just their own internal poll, maybe rasmussen, lmao. Gonna be a lot of sad Pandas come Nov 6

[Necroscope84]

Oh, now he has momentum in Iowa too? Lmao, gotta love these delusions. Actually swing state polls show Romney falling further and further behind. Sorry Romney but just because you'll keep saying your'e winning doesn't make it true. Nice try at that self fullfilling prophecy but it's not going to happen. Out of over 20 polls, only 2 show good for you'll and they're both outliers. Rasmussen has the worst record of any pollster in history but go ahead and keep pointing to it. Not going to do you a bit of good come election day.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/30/1152853/-Leaked-Florida-GOP-Memo-Democratic-turnout-machine-is-cleaning-our-clock

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/rasmussens-2012-polling-has-had-a-republican-bias-all-year/

[wethepeepoh]

Romney will WIN BY A LANDSLIDE!!

Obama and the democrats are currently doing ALL THEY CAN to STEAL the election - but it won't work this time!!

The American voters have witnessed first-hand the massive Democratic power-grab and betrayal of American values and principles by this administration and it will be reflected on this presidential election cycle!

The American voters are done with the lies from the leftist media and this President to justify all their infractions and abuses to the American people.

They even have the audacity to release a picture of Obama in the situation room allegedly coordinating efforts for Hurricane Sandy (nice photo op) never mind he being in the situation room during Benghazi and ordering the military to stand down while they watched our men get killed from above.
The next morning he is back to campaigning in Vegas w/ Jay Z and Beyonce.

Priorities and all that!!

We need to vote Democrats out of office completely!!

Vote Obama OUT!!
Vote all Democrats OUT!!

Vote Romney/Ryan and Republicans in 2012 across the board.

[sueb45]

And how are we trying to steal the election? Seems to me that it's the Republicans who are trying to suppress the vote.

[Maerzie]

RIGHT! It's the Republicans who tried all the voter suppression scams all over the country that the Supreme Court squashed stayte by state! This guy's comments are proof that he has ONLY listened to the propaganda, put out intentionally for gullible minds, and has never used one iota of his brain to do ANY independent research. THIS is exactly the type who will lose our democracy for us because she takes it for granted! His words are almost word for word parroting, directly from the propaganda aimed at people who are too lazy to find out any facts and just believe the lies! How very painfully sad!

[sueb45]

Sending Ann there should do the job...for Obama. Remember,Mitt, himself said they don't want to use her too much so that people don't get tired of her---and that ship sailed awhile ago!!!!