CBS News/ October 31, 2012, 3:00 AM

Poll: Obama holds small Ohio edge; Fla., Va. tight

The Race in Florida

President Obama continues to enjoy a double-digit lead among women, 53 to 43 percent, but that lead has been almost cut in half since last month. Romney has increased his advantage with men from three points last month to nine points now, 52 to 43 percent.

The president has the support of younger voters in this poll, 55 to 41 percent, while Romney leads with seniors, 53 to 42 percent. A month ago, the President had an edge with seniors.

Romney has expanded his lead with white voters and now leads the president by 22 points among this group, 59 to 37 percent. Four years ago, Mr. Obama received 42 percent of the white vote in Florida. In this poll, he is getting 37 percent.

The Race in Ohio

The race in Ohio remains largely unchanged from a week ago, with the president maintaining a significant lead with women (56 to 39 percent), while Romney is ahead by six points among men, 50 to 44 percent.

Seniors are backing Romney by 9 points, 52 to 43 percent, while Mr. Obama leads among younger voters, particularly those under 35, 58 to 36 percent. Romney leads among independents (49 to 43 percent) and whites (50 to 45 percent).

The Race in Virginia

In Virginia, the gender gap has narrowed slightly but it is still significant: President Obama holds a 10-point lead among women, 53 to 43 percent, while Romney holds a 9-point lead among men, 52 to 43 percent.

Virginia voters under 35 continue to favor the president, 54 to 41 percent, while Romney has made gains among voters between 35 and 64 - cutting down an eight-point Obama lead to three points among this age group, 50 to 47 percent. Virginia voters 65 and older support Romney by 13 points, 55 to 42 percent.

Among independents in Virginia, Romney has surged from a two-point deficit two weeks ago to a 21-point lead today, 57 to 36 percent. He has also increased his lead slightly among voters in military households.

Romney maintains a strong 22-point lead among white voters, 59 to 37 percent, while 93 percent of black voters are supporting Mr. Obama.

The Issues

The economy remains the most important issue to voters in all three states, and voters in Florida and Ohio are closely divided as to which candidate would do a better job handling it. In Virginia, where the candidates were neck-and-neck two weeks ago, Mitt Romney now has a four-point lead, 50 to 46 percent.

Voters in all three states are more optimistic now about both the national and state economies than they were in the summer. Four in 10 voters in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia now think the national economy is getting better. Back in August, just a quarter thought so.

A similar trend can be seen when these voters assess their own state's economy, particularly in Ohio. Back in August just 33 percent said that the economy in Ohio was getting better; now that has risen to 52 percent.

Voters who think the economy is improving in their state do give credit to the Obama administration. 7 in 10 think his administration deserves at least some of the credit, including at least four in 10 who say it deserves a lot of the credit.

At the same time, among those who think their state economy is getting worse, majorities think the Obama administration deserves at least some of the blame.

On other specific issues, President Obama has the advantage. More voters in all three states see him as better able to handle health care, Medicare, education and social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage, foreign policy and terrorism.

In all three states, voters also pick President Obama to do a better job helping the middle class. But when it comes to who would do a better job working with members of both parties, Florida and Virginia voters pick Mitt Romney. In Ohio, voters are divided

Views of the Candidates

As he has throughout the campaign, Barack Obama wins on empathy. Six in 10 voters in all three states think Mr. Obama cares about their needs and problems. Voters in Florida and Virginia are divided over whether Mitt Romney does, and most voters (52 percent) in Ohio think he does not.

On the specific issue of understanding the needs and problems of women in the workforce, about two in three voters in each state say Barack Obama understands, while about half of voters say Mitt Romney does not.

Barack Obama leads on another measure as well: honesty. Most voters in all three states think Barack Obama is honest and trustworthy, while voters are less sure of Mitt Romney.

But Mitt Romney is ahead on leadership. Although most voters think both candidates have strong qualities of leadership, more think so of Mitt Romney.

Neither candidate, however, is seen as having clearly explained their specific plans for the next four years. Most voters in all three states don't think either candidate has done so, though President Obama does slightly better than Mitt Romney.

Overall, more voters continue to view Barack Obama favorably than view him unfavorably. Views of Mitt Romney are mixed, though they have improved over the past month in Florida, from 41 percent favorable to 48 percent.

Voters are divided in these states over the President's job performance. About as many approve as disapprove of the job he's doing as president.

The 2012 Senate Races

The Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate in Florida (Sen. Bill Nelson) and Ohio (Sen. Sherrod Brown) retain their leads over their challengers (Nelson leads 52 to 39 percent over Rep. Connie Mack; Brown leads 51 to 42 over state treasurer Josh Mandel). The race is closest in Virginia where Democrat Tim Kaine has a slim four-point lead (50 to 46 percent) over Republican George Allen.

For full poll results, see next page

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This poll was conducted by telephone from Quinnipiac University's interviewing facility October 23--28, 2012. The number of likely voters interviewed in each state is 1,073 in Florida, 1,110 in Ohio and 1,074 in Virginia. In all three states, phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the sample in each state could be plus or minus three percentage points in Florida, Ohio, and in Virginia. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.


2/3

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
491 Comments Add a Comment
linkicon reporticon emailicon
PEGROSS says:
Well 60 Minutes/CBS decided to release more of the Sept 12 interview last night. This was after the Rose Garden. All I can say is its about time and thanks for withholding a BIG part. Sure makes a lot said in the debates and after, a lie. You may want to give it a watch. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50134495n&tag=mg%3B60minutes
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
tjs723 says:
Hello:

CBS News and all of their political reporters are colluding in the destruction of democracy in America in NOT reporting voter suppression and irregularities around the country!!

Eleventh-Hour GOP Voter Suppression Could Swing Ohio
http://www.thenation.com/blog/171011/eleventh-hour-gop-voter-suppression-could-swing-ohio

South Florida County Extends Early Voting — But Only In One GOP Stronghold
http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/11/04/1136371/south-florida-county-extends-early-voting-but-only-in-one-gop-stronghold/

GOP Senator Defends Romney Campaign's Misleading Jeep Ad -- http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/11/04/1135301/gop-senator-defends-romney-campaigns-misleading-jeep-ad/
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
uggugg says:
Just because Mitt Romney met Benjamin Netanyahu in college doesn't mean Romney is an authority on Military matters which could help Israel. Romney doesn't know anything about the Military, the most Mitt Romney can boast about is being in the Boy Scouts when he was a kid, this type of experience can get us in a Nuclear War before we know what happened. The last 10 years of Bush and the Republican Parties crippling 10 trillion dollar war expense has us where we are today. The Jewish population, if they are paying attention to the past ten years, need to understand America's finances have been strained. America and the Jews need to lose any fear they may have, fear is not an asset. Iraq and Afghanistan should prove that. America and Israel are a united team worldwide. We need to negotiate from strength not from fear. Benjamin Netanyahu continually showing fear doesn't help the world's view of Israel and America's relationship. Other Nations draws wrong readings from these foolish actions which could cause anyone of them to do something stupid, drawing both of us into also doing something stupid. The young Jewish voters need to understand this to lose their silly fears and vote for President Obama and they will be glad they did down the road.
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
uggugg says:
If the Republican Congress will not give Obama what the poor and middle class and the economy needs in general, which also benefits economic growth to generate tax revenue so as Our Government can pay her bills and maintain a healthy economy and lifestyle, why would that same Republican Congress give to Mitt Romney the same thing they would not give to President Obama. If they did, we would all know there is a Fox in the hen house for sure. In other words, Mitt Romney, to deal with that Congress would have to give up your Social Security, your Medicare, you right to everything you now have through President Obama. Mitt Romney would set back the working class people in America, equal to the working class people in China, then your houses would drop in price to what they are in China because no one could afford to own one except the rich and they would own all the property and you could rent from them. They would go back to when the Coal companies dug the coal, built the houses and rented to the miners, built the grocery store and sold groceries to the miners. Corporations would own our soul. Don't let this happen, vote for Barack Obama for another 4 years and enjoy your life while Obama is fighting for you.
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
WhatWouldJesusDo says:
Jesus said to Peter: "Feed my sheep!" John 21:17 I live in a state ravaged by Hurricane Sandy. And, let me say that Obama is all about takign care of the "least of us." Ryan made a "picture show" of HIS efforts; it was ALL about looking good for the cameras, not BEING good in the way of Jesus Christ Our Lord and Savior.

Truly I say, Romney and Ryan are hypocrits, who make a mockery of Jesus' command to "love one another." John 13:34. What "love" is there in Romney's false attacks on his "neighbor" Obama? Thou shalt not bear false witness? Romney.

Wake up! Do not vote for a rich serpent like Romney, who talks a great talk but only offers a tainted apple for us to bite! I, for one, would rather starve than bite Romney's "apple."
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
viewer432 says:
We all know polls can differ greatly. But I was very surprised that Frank Luntz (CBS political correspondent employee) stated on CBS This Morning (11/02/12) that Romney was only behind Obama by 1.5 points in Ohio, acknowledging (with Charlie Rose's tacit agreement) that the just released CBS, NYT, Quinnipiac poll (showing a 5 point Ohio lead for Obama) was in error. Does anyone know if all the results of this poll in error?

Viewer
reply
PEGROSS replies:
linkicon reporticon emailicon
If you check out the data on this poll you see that its very heavy weighted to the Left.

Florida 30%R - 37%D - 29%I
Ohio 29%R - 37%D - 30%I
Virginia 27%R - 35%D - 35%I

error +-3
linkicon reporticon emailicon
Yertle-Turtle says:
Republicans for President Obama said "The Tea Party will not silence us."

Listen with your heart to President Obama and join in prayer.

"Then you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free."
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
Yertle-Turtle says:
WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR ROMNEY TO BE HIS OWN MAN.

Is there any way for Romney to RIGHT the ship in 5 days?

Yes, by turning LEFT and:

1.) Releasing his tax returns.
2.) Stopping the attack ads.
3.) Disclosing his major contributors.
4.) Promising to have a clearly bipartisan committee headed by a Democrat to make Obamacare better not gone.
5.) Reducing military spending to save middle class safety nets.
6.) Tighten gun control laws.
7.) Increase taxes on the wealthiest 1% of Americans.
8.) Support equality across all lifestyles.
9.) Support a woman's right for full control of her body.
10.) Make a college education affordable for every American willing to serve their country.
11.) Support the Dream Act.
12.) Commit to developing alternative energy sources.
13.) Lead the world in an effort to stop global warming.
14.) Appoint centralist Supreme Court justices.
15.) Refuse to be influenced by the Tea Party.
16.) Thank President Obama for his dedication and service to the America people.
17.) Form a coalition in the U N to bring peace to the Middle East.
18.) Stimulate small business growth; make everyone an owner in this country.

Everyone knows none of these things are going to happen because it would be political suicide for Romney to take these positions unless he is willing to switch parties and run again in 2016 as a true compassionate Democrat beholding equally to 100% of all Americans.
reply
Guitfiddel replies:
linkicon reporticon emailicon
Thank YOU for telling the TRUTH "Yertle-Turtle"! GREAT BLOG!
linkicon reporticon emailicon
sadiedac says:
My question to CBS news is why have you not embraced the situation in Libya? Our ambassador and 3 other Americans were killed. This should be top news, especially when we have pictures to show us what happened and calls for help and was denied. When we have people who have lied to us about this, something needs to be done. Do you want people who lie running our government? I am so upset with the media. Where is your values and alligance to our country and for those who serve our country? I am to the point of not watching the news because I don't believe what you all say anymore.
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
RetiredArmy_Nurse says:
Yep, the Prez will take it. I'm not sure what the electoral vote will be, but it will be well above 270. The problem will be, thanks to gerrymandering, a teabagger congress. With those fools still a force in the House, it will be hard for America to move forward. Perhaps 2014 will be the first time we see the incumbant make gains in congress as America flushes these rascals out.
reply
See all 491 Comments
Scroll Left Scroll Right