Polls: Presidential race is extremely tight

Second Presidential Debate Obama Romney split image generic / Getty Images

Fifteen days from Election Day, two national polls indicate that the presidential race is as close as ever, showing President Obama and Mitt Romney statistically tied. As both candidates head into their third and final debate with no clear lead, Monday night's debate could be a critical moment in the sprint to Election Day.

A new poll by George Washington University/Politico found that Romney leads the president by two points among likely voters, within the 3.1 percent margin of error. Romney garnered 49 percent support to Mr. Obama's 47 percent, which is an increase from the 46 percent the Republican candidate received in the same poll one week ago.

Another national poll released Sunday by Wall Street Journal/NBC News shows Romney and Mr. Obama are tied at 47 percent among likely voters. Among registered voters (not necessarily likely to vote), however, the president is ahead by five points.

One thousand registered voters and 816 likely voters were polled and the results have a 3.4 percent margin of error.

In the WSJ/NBC poll, while only 46 percent approve of the president's handling of the economy - compared to 52 percent who disapprove - the president does slightly better on voters' opinion of his handling of foreign policy, the subject of tonight's final presidential debate, with 49 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.

• Poll: Obama's lead in Ohio narrows
• Foreign policy the focus for final debate
• On day of debate, new Obama ad hits Romney on foreign policy

Gallup's Daily Tracking Poll shows Romney leading the president 51 percent to 45 percent, which is outside the 2 percent margin of error. The seven day average of likely voters shows Romney down one point from his high last week and most of the respondents have been asked after the second debate, which Mr. Obama was thought to have had a strong showing.

Fox News released several state-specific polls Monday. In Ohio, the president leads Romney 46 percent to 43 percent, within the three-point margin or error. In the same poll released a month ago, the president had a seven point lead in the crucial battleground state.

Quinnipiac University and CBS News released an Ohio poll today showing Mr. Obama up 50 to 45 percent.

The enthusiasm gap continues in the Fox News poll, Romney leads the president by ten points among those "extremely" interested in the election. In addition, the poll shows a turnaround from last month, with more respondents giving Romney a favorable rating - 48 percent favorable to 46 percent unfavorable.

In Florida, the Fox News poll shows Romney with a lead, with Romney posting 48 percent support among likely voters compared to the president's 45 percent. The results are within the three-point margin of error of 1,130 likely Florida voters.

The poll shows improving signs for Romney in the Sunshine State as last month's poll showed Romney behind the president with 44 percent to Mr. Obama's 49 percent.

An increase of support among women is attributable to Romney's increase as the president's 19-point advantage among women voters in Florida has shrunk to just one point in the Fox News poll.

Another Florida poll shows the race a little tighter. A CNN poll released Monday shows Romney is supported by 49 percent of likely voters to the president's 48 percent, also within the margin of error.

The CNN poll also shows a decreasing gender gap as Romney is down by just two points.

[Galt14]

Obama has won this election and he will make sure he gets all liberals on the supreme court. The republican party is a thing of the past. Its time for a new party to emerge without religious ties. but in the end this country has changed into Europe 2.0.

[Hebridean7]

"An increase of support among women is attributable to Romney's increase as the president's 19-point advantage among women voters in Florida has shrunk to just one point in the Fox News poll."

Leigh Ann, I think you mean to say that Romney's overall increase in the state of Florida is attributable to an increase in support among women. To "attribute" is to "ascribe" or "to relate as a cause or a source."

[0bama2O12]

It's so tight I can hear it. Seriously, what maroon would not vote for President Obama?

[toymic12]

The maroons that see this.
Think My Fellow Americans. Take all the emotion out of it.
Please share some intelligent insight and not insults. Elaborate......
I think some people have made up their minds as to who to vote for without really understanding what this election stands for and what the candidates stand for and what it means to us as Americans. Sadly some are voting based on color. Some have made their choice based on their current situation which is the right way to go. I try to make a informed decision on these things because it does matter.
These are the reasons I would not vote for Romney no matter who he was running against:
1.Bain Capitol outsourced Jobs over seas when he was CEO and continues to do so with him the majority share holder. Checkout the Illinois company closing because of Bain. Also checkout the conditions the new employees in China will have to endure. Not very American. If he did it before, he'll do it again. He is doing nothing about the issue in Illinois. In fact he is ignoring it. If the people in Illinois are hurting the way they are while crying out to him knowing he has the ability to curve the outcome of their situation, what do you think he will do when you are hurting.
2.The 47% comments. People let you know exactly how they feel behind closed doors.
3. Does not support the Lilly Ledbetter fair act.
4. Insulted foreign leaders multiple times in him visits over seas.
5. Will not show his tax returns which indicates he has something to hide.
6. Used the tragic situation in Libya to score political points which is shameful IMO.
7. Regularly switches positions on his policies like abortion, Tax break, and foreign policies.
8. The reason he didn't run for a second term as governor of Mass is because he clearly had no chance of winning. Check it out yourself.
9. His own state of Mass is not supporting him and he is behind 57 to 42 percent in polls. There is something to this.
10. The Tax breaks in his plan does not adding up and will result in someone like myself holding the bag.
11. Wants to get rid of Medicare and Social Security as we know it but he wont just come out and say it.
12. America is not a business you can run up profits for a small number of people and bankrupt it as he has been know to do as a business man.
13. There are 11 bills on the table right now that will create about 2 million jobs and the republican party refuses to work with the "LEFT" because it will show progress thereby giving Obama success. They do this all to pull the wool over our eyes so that we look at this administration as being unsuccessful and incapable. All the while 2 million potential people could be doing better and have jobs. Basically what that means is the current republicans care more about about the destruction of a president that getting us back to work and easing the suffering may of us are facing. Control to them means more than helping us recover.
14. Will probably get us rapped up into another war in the middle east based on his comments about Iran.
14. Just overall untrustworthy from my point of view.

[IVoteMyConscience]

"I believe in the American spirit," President Obama said. "A President must care about 100% of their people."

Obama said that on film:

"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fNUQQBE8iE"

"My priority is jobs," Romney said.

Romney's record on jobs is on video:

"http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ZMndjLIQUFw"

In America, "47% of the people believe they are victims," Romney said. "That 47% believe they are ENTITLED [emphasis Romney's] to health care, food & housing. These are people who pay no income tax. Forty-seven percent of Americans pay no income tax. It's not my job to worry about those people. I'll never convince them to take responsibility for their lives."

Hmmm.

The steelworkers in the video above pay income tax. They take responsibility for their lives. I'm guessing that you reading this pay income taxes and take responsibility for your lives. My husband and I pay 35% income tax. We sure as heck take responsibility for our lives!

Meanwhile, Romney's defense of his unreleased tax returns is that last year he paid 14.1% income tax. (And there's evidence that he paid extra so American wouldn't know how low his tax bracket actually is--that's trying to buy votes.)

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all are endowed with CERTAIN UNALIENABLE RIGHTS, among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."--the US Constitution

Did Romney really dismiss in contempt all of us Americans who pay taxes more than twice as high as his, as well as the basic tenant of our US Constitution, when he thought he was speaking secretly behind closed doors?

The record is on video:

"http://www.motherjones.com/transition/inter.php?dest=http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser"

So who told the truth in this 2nd 2012 Presidential debate? Who lied?

The record is on video:

"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXpKq4UYtXw&feature=related"

Who stood firm on his platform for election? Who switched his positions?

The record is on video:

"http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jebDlVAcpGo"

Who told the truth in the 1st 2012 Presidential debate? Who lied?

The record is on video:

"http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TWHLgMCDuOs"

Romney's handlers claim debates are no place for "fact-checking" and that Romney will not be limited by "fact-checkers."

A Presidential candidate who doesn't want to be fact-checked?

What could that possibly mean. . .other than lying?

Apparently, Romney's handlers claim it means they disagree with "facts" because they like "empirical data." However, "empirical data" ARE "facts." A "fact," according to the Oxford English Dictionary, is "a thing known or proved to be true," and "data" is "a collection of facts." Yes, data are facts. "Empirical" simply means anything at all "verifiable by observation or experience."

Empirical DATA = [observed or experienced] FACTS = THE TRUTH

This is a particularly meaningless red herring designed to fool Republican voters into believing there's a difference between two identical terms and confuse them about why the facts, when checked, don't match what Romney says.

This is why President Obama doesn't object to being fact-checked.

It's a good thing American voters aren't as easy to lie to as Romney thinks.

Americans deserve the truth from our Presidential candidates.

Fact-checker's list on the 2nd 2012 Presidential debate, with citations, compiled by Milt Shook:

http://pleasecutthecrap.typepad.com/main/2012/10/second-debate-romney-lies-debunked.html

Fact-checker's list on the 1st 2012 Presidential debate, with citations, compiled by Milt Shook:

http://pleasecutthecrap.typepad.com/main/2012/10/a-small-sampling-of-romney-lies-at-last-nights-debate.html

For moderate voters, Obama and Romney compared, with citations, by Milt Shook:

http://pleasecutthecrap.typepad.com/main/2012/10/if-youre-a-moderate-voter-thinking-of-voting-gop-read-this-first-please.html

Obama's record as President, with citations, compiled by Milt Shook:

http://pleasecutthecrap.typepad.com/main/what-has-obama-done-since-january-20-2009.html

Whom among the American people Obama has really represented during the past 4 years? Revealed in detail by Milt Shook:

http://pleasecutthecrap.typepad.com/main/2011/08/more-politics-101-obama-is-smarter-than-us.html

By mid-October, 2012, the Obama campaign had broken all previous records for number of individual donations with 10,000,000 donations from Americans of all walks of life. That's ten million Americans not only voting for Obama, but investing their hard-earned money in a future lead by him. (And we all know exactly how hard-earned that money is these days.)

Please--read, follow up citations to their sources, educate yourself.

Don't be bought by simple-minded television ads paid for by billionaires who hope to gain financially by your loss.

Make an informed decision about what's best for you and for America.

And VOTE.

[AcidicHotwire]

Whoa! I'm not going to go through all of your links because I've already done my research. What's more, I reviewed several different Fact Check pages compiled by several different individuals, not one site by one author. The result is quite clear. Both politicians fudged, but Obama had way more flat out lies than Romney no matter how you slice it.

And Romney's 47% remark was actually in support of taxpayers (like you claim to be), so where's the insult to you? Besides, it's a true statment. It may not be politically correct, or even pleasant to consider, but it's still true. And Romney will never be able to convince them to vote for him because the takers will always vote for the candidate who offers more bread and circuses.

[TSW93]

Honestly I do not understand how 10 different new articles have diffrent statistics. If it is a national poll and we are suppose to have an understanding of who is leading. At least half should be within one percentage point of another. One second Romney is in the lead after others say Obama has been and is still in the lead. Honestly I think it will be another 4 years for Obama. I could be wrong. Just going off of my own understanding of all the poll results. I'm not here to say either side is wrong. I just think that we need to work on this margin of error a little more.

Also I think that it is disrespecful how everyone is referring to Obama. Whether you like it or not he is the president and I do not think that anyone has the right to say the things that they are saying. In this article it made me mad that he is referred to Mr. Obama. It is President Obama, just show your respect.

[AcidicHotwire]

Disrespect breeds disrespect. Had Obama in any way acted like the president I would've swallowed the GOP loss 4 years ago and moved on. But he hasn't. He acts like a petulant child, always whining and crying about how nothing is ever his fault. Everything is always someone else's fault. The Republicans, Bush, whatever. If he feels the need to disrespect me by not accepting responsibility for his actions, then I won't respect him by referring to him by title. I will not, however, resort to the other names by which he is called. That would simply bring me down to his level.

[winter360]

I don't expect to hear much difference in the foreign policy positions between Mitt Romney and Obama tonight. I am watching Democracy Now!'s debate tonight that is going to allow third party candidates to respond. democracynow.org

[RobLit7]

Please note this:

The race is over. All you have to do is vote.

Given early voting, Romney needs to win 55% of the remaining vote in Ohio.

This is, for practical purposes, impossible.

He needs 59% of the remaining vote in Iowa.

And about 56% of the remaining vote in Wisc.

In sum:

Obama will be our President for 4 more years.