Poll finds Romney leads by five points in swing states

Mitt Romney is leading President Obama by five percentage points in critical battleground states, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll out Monday - a gain the survey suggests is linked to a spike in support among women.

The poll shows Romney ahead, 51 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters in 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Women typically trend Democratic: In 2008, female voters chose Mr. Obama over Republican Sen. John McCain by a 13 point margin. Now, according to USA Today/Gallup, Romney is tied with the president among women who are likely voters, 48 percent to 48 percent. He is leading by 12 points among men.

"In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since since the first presidential debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake tld USA Today. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."

But the Romney camp shouldn't celebrate yet, argued Obama pollster Joel Benenson: "In the last election, Gallup's 'registered voter' model -- not its 'likely voter' model -- was a much more accurate predictor, with their likely model missing the mark in 2010 by 9 points right before the election," he argued in a memo to reporters. "That explains why Gallup's results are way out of line with a dozen recent swing state polls that show the president with a double-digit lead among women."

Among registered voters (not just likely voters) in the swing states, the president leads by nine points among women and two points overall, 49 percent to 47 percent.

[judoart]

I think women, moms in particular, will be the deciding factor in this election. As an artist I had to make a political cartoon on this subject.Here is my cartoon hot off the canvas:

http://www.yjstudios.com/blog/2012/10/16/women-vote-for-romney

[bigmanfrommaine]

Huh, I thought women were smarter than that

[USMC1969_1973]

"I love the smell of liberal panic in the morning."

"It smells like...VICTORY."

[USMC1969_1973]

TROUTFISHMAN2:
I get your analogy, liberal panic and poop have the same odor.

[cubscout09]

Self-described, "likely voters" seems to be a code word. Obama has never done well with "likely voters".

[ImATaQUitO]

He did well enough with them in 2008. "Likely voter" is code for people who are likely to vote. He's awesome with people who are unlikely to vote, but that is a dubious distinction.

[Grey_Goo]

Let's not fool ourselves, Obama is right it was Bush's fault, but Obama's fault is on Obama, it's time to move on from this socialist-capitalist crony pig and select a new president - Romney, yea someone that knows how to actually balance a budget -- for the people, not for the machine.

[caglacwolf]

Yes, I am going to vote for Romney and he will best for our country and I feel that if people don't love America then they should leave.

[mikesfilms]

What to expect from a Romney administration: He'll change the Supreme Court against women and let the Teapubs wage the War on Women: Turn US into a religious Iran-like dictatorship. Attack women's freedom of choice with 1000 anti-abortion bills, women's health curtailing access to contraceptives. R-Mo Todd Akins thrashing rape victims. Rush Limbaugh naming student Sandra Fluke a "****", Va Governor-ultrasound-McDonnell forcing devises in women in need of abortions and applying Shariah law to those who refuse. Women might as well live under Taliban.

[RocketBlood]

You ignorant clown, do some research. Obama sent $1.5 billion to the Muslm Brotherhood. You know, the same people that stone rape victims to death. The people who won't let a woman leave the house unless accompanied by a male relative. BTW, driving and voting, forget it.

Lil' Hussein Obama has helped in the war on women like no other before him, but you stupid drones refuse to admit his evil.

[harv823]

Do you really think that women will vote for Romney when he's against abortion even in the events of rape or incest? Sorry, women don't like to be told what to do with their bodies by old white guys.

[all-gores]

Won't women vote for Obama because he's eye candy ?

[sandrashearer]

You are so uniformed...Didn't you watch the debate and other speeches made by Romeney...Repeating the same information over and over doesn't make it true. Romney and Ryan both have explicity said in the case of rape or incest or the health of the mother they are not against abortion. What they are against is taking innocent life frivously and thoughless. Get your facts straight--remember people watch debates and know what's actually been said!!

[nearl451]

Gee. I guess the election is over then.

Seriously, I really like the new Rosie Perez commercial.

"Mitt your policies really suck!"

It is priceless.

[gator68jd]

I have a bridge to sell you if you believe this poll. Every other poll out there shows Obama up 9-14 points with women.

[RocketBlood]

Woman are not that stupid. Anyone can see what a horrible job Hussein the Incompetent has done.

That why he he is running on fear and smear. He can't run on his record.

ABO - Anybody But Obama 2012