Obama holds slight electoral vote edge, according to new computer simulation

By Anthony Salvanto and Doug Rivers

President Obama would hold a slight Electoral College edge if the election were today, according to a new computer simulation model, mainly because enough of the battlegrounds still tilt ever-so-slightly his way -- but he's not nearly favored for re-election to the extent he was a few weeks ago.

CBS News and YouGov's simulation shows how the national presidential vote impacts the Electoral College, following Mitt Romney's resurgence and the first debate.

We tested what would happen in the Electoral College under three very close national vote scenarios: either a slight Obama or Romney popular vote win, and a tie. The model shows us how the nation's votes would be distributed in each case, and how the states would ultimately tip one way or the other. (We tried all three scenarios because if there's one thing - and maybe the only thing - that the national polls agree on today, it's that this race is close.)

If the popular vote is tied

A tie in the national popular vote means Mr. Obama would likely get re-elected narrowly with 290 electoral votes--just over the 270 needed to win.

The president can simply tie the popular vote and still win the Electoral College because he has more state-by-state combinations to get to 270 than Romney does. So he'd most likely squeak out wins in most of the battlegrounds where he leads - enough for that 290 majority - while losing a few others, and breaking even in the popular vote. He'd rely heavily on slight wins in Ohio and smaller states like Colorado and Iowa and Wisconsin to get him there, because Romney would take larger prizes of Florida and Virginia by very small margins, as well as North Carolina.

However, this would be a razor-tight race all around: less than one percent would separate the candidates in five battleground states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Virginia). All told, the model shows a 65 percent chance of Mr. Obama winning in a tied popular vote scenario. And Romney is within electoral striking distance, too, because he'd likely win the big prize of Florida under this and most of the scenarios we examined. That alone gets him much closer to 270 and ups his chances.

Before we look at the other scenarios, here's more detail on how the model works: First, we estimate where the race stands at this moment in both battleground and non-battleground states using YouGov's interviews with 35,700 registered voters across the country, conducted for this project. Then, since the national vote is really just an assemblage of state votes, we look at how the states are likely to tip from their initial position as we see shifts in the national vote. We used one million computer simulations to estimate the chances of each possible Electoral College combination that could result, and from that we learn which are the most likely to occur.

Importantly, it is meant to gives us a snapshot of today, not a prediction, because it is based on current information and the current dynamics of the race.

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[guymacher]

I thought Dems wanted to scrap the Electoral College? Let's decide this with the popular vote!

[ragtech512]

Actually this map is giving Obama most of the now "Toss-Up" states. reverse that and Romney needs only to swing one (2 tops) other states. And, with the momentum Romney has going for him; that a very definite possibility.

[hypnotoad72]

Computers or people, polls based on 1000 will not properly reflect 150000000.

[joshisanonymous]

I'm sincerely not trying to insult your intelligence but 1,000 people really can reflect 150,000,000 with a very high degree of certainty. It has to do with how a sample is drawn. A true random sample (or at least a close approximate) can represent huge populations with a, relatively, very small sample size. This is backed by centuries of statistical science development.

[atalakpa]

Romney sold me lemon during the debate. I would not vote for him. He does not sound sincere. He has changed position in many issue and cannot be reliable president. I vote O again.

[Frankie211]

I think you used the lemon for your Kool Aid. Can't believe you would actually make the same mistakes twice. You no the definition of "Insane" is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result!

[BigBlivefromny]

TRICKLE DOWN ECONOMICS WORKS? Really? Bush was President from 2000 to 2008 and gave the RICH HUGE TAX BREAKS! Did they create JOBS? Uh duh! No, we entered THE WORST RECESSION EVER...EVER, EVER people!!!!!Since the depression...Yes, the rich took all that money, then INVESTED IT OVERSEAS you imbeciles. It trickled down allright, right into TAX FREE ACCOUNTS like ROMNEYS MYSTERIOUSLY HUGE 100 million IRA account. Oh, and his Swiss bank accounts. He is a JOB CREATOR? YEAH, IN CHINA YOU FOOLS!!!!!

[Frankie211]

They should really check I.Q. before they allow anyone to comment on this site!

[pran38]

You people are stupid, have you not watched the fact-check for the debate last night?????? Obama won for lying and misleading in his debate. You all think we are doing bad as a country now.....just vote Obama back in and it will be the death of American. The stations have busted him with the fact check!!!!!!!!! Face it, Obama is the liar and can't handle the job of running this country

[BigBlivefromny]

Pran38: Funny comments! Actually in 2000 i sat with my Grandmother who was 90 and lived through the depression....and when Gorge Bush STOLE his first term with the 'hanging chads' Bull in Florida and the supreme cout gave it to him....she said " This is the end, that idiot will destroy this country". After two terms of Bush you can see just how right Grandma was! Yes America, let's do that all over Lol!!!!!!

[mountainstates1]

Tagg Romney, is that you?? Oh please don't beat me up! LOL...

[jimbo31521]

It disturbs me to see television networks running polls on the presidential race. Every one of them is openly biased toward one candidate or the other. They probably are keeping their thumbs on the scales. It would be better if they were to leave polling to the professionals and hope they will produce at least a little less-biased results.

[glennbronx]

I am NOT planning on voting for Romney, but HAD an open mind through this summer. As his GOP primary challengers Santorum and Gingrch claim/ed, Romney is an "etch a sketch" President with no REAL core set of values, even though, he DOES know how to successfully accumulate $$$! He says one thing to some people some of the time and other things to other people.....etc. He a worst "flip flopper" than his fellow Massachusetts resident John Kerry!
For me, the "hidden" 47% speech confirms my decision from mid-summer/pre-convention that Romney is a SUCK UP to the monied interests. Obama may be a PANDERER to that same 47%, but I believe that Obama IS able/has been able to tell his own donors/Dem. leaning lobbyists to shut the f*** up in his first term enough times, that he deserves a chance to clean up the HUGE mess left by George W. in HIS 8 years. I REALLY miss Bob Dole.

[HopeforAmerica]

Romney Etcha-Sketch has No moral compass. He continues to lie about his position because he continually Flip-flops on Every Issue! Moreover, he's so desperate to be president that he has stooped to telling businesses to use coercion as a means of forcing employees to vote for Romney!! Romney is Utterly Despicable!! WHY Hasn't CBS NEWS OR ABC ..OR NBC Reported this Audio to the Public?? The People want Real Journalism. http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/10/17/1037881/leaked-audio-romney-employers/

[Just2Post]

Romney might be an Etcha-Sketch candidate, but the basis of his decision making will not be the Quran, a little like the Quran (polygamy) but at least pagans are not murdered or considered the enemy. We'll see. He is a bitness man, not an organizer.

[reneemarqua]

CBS is truly ignorant for letting whoever the ignorant person is that wrote this article! Whether you like it or not he IS still our president. Let it had been Bush.... You wouldnt have called him Mr. Bush you would have said President Bush. So until Romney (if he ever) wins the election, you refer to MY president as President Obama, not Mr Obama. I will let you call him Mr President though!! ;-)

[5NB]

Actually, I remember many times during Bush's presidency when news articles and TV reporters referred to him as Mr. Bush.

[EsquireXII]

In your list of states that are blue and red, you left out Mississippi (MS) and included MI (Michigan). The totals are correct because even though you listed MI in the red with a 16 EV you evidently really only gave it the count of mississippi which is 6 EV.

[suncat13]

Romney reminds me of George W. Bush...he'll tell you exactly what you want to hear, then move forward with what he and his advisers planned to do in the first place. His advisers had a difficult time reining him in, but they often talked him into what they wanted.

Haven't we learned our lesson? Why do we want another puppet government?

[5NB]

That behavior reminds you of Bush?? It doesn't remind you of anybody else? It reminds my of nearly every single politician I can think of. And I most definitely include Obama in that group.