If popular-vote loser wins, rift would likely ensue

CBS

This article originally appeared on RealClearPolitics.

If the presidential election were to play out according to RealClearPolitics' latest polling averages, Mitt Romney would surpass President Obama by 1.0 percent in the nationwide vote.

Cue the balloon drop and pop the champagne corks in Boston, right? Not exactly.

Under the same current polling scenario, Obama's relative strength in the battleground states could propel him to victory over Romney in the Electoral College.

A candidate has been elected president while losing the popular vote four times in American history (including John Quincy Adams, who in 1824 finished second in the popular vote to Andrew Jackson but was elected by the House of Representatives when none of the four candidates won a majority in the Electoral College).

The scenario is always an unlikely one, but given the tightness of the 2012 contest, an electoral victory on the heels of a popular vote defeat isn't out of the question for Obama or Romney.

In the days before the 2000 election, George W. Bush's campaign reportedly prepared talking points to dispute the democratic fairness of what was then seen as a more likely outcome -- that Al Gore would win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

But amid the subsequent Florida recount and Supreme Court decision that awarded Bush the presidency despite his loss in the popular vote count, the Republican's team was emphatic that only the Electoral College mattered.

Despite the protests waged by many Gore supporters, the constitutionally mandated criteria for winning the presidency were as clear then as they are now.

"It's striking that both sides tend to adjust their position on the Electoral College based on whose ox is being gored," said George Washington University Law School professor Jeffrey Rosen. "Republicans would have a hard time claiming that someone who won the Electoral College was not legitimately elected, in light of what happened in 2000. Because there's no Constitutional doubt at all on the question, there's really no serious argument that if Obama lost the popular vote and won the Electoral College he would not in fact be president."

According to a Gallup poll conducted last year, 62 percent of Americans favored amending the Constitution to abolish the Electoral College, while just 35 percent preferred to keep it in place.

But for now at least, both sides are left to grapple with the potential controversies that would likely erupt under the established system.

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[teachcbs]

Dear CBS,

The ABC moderator for the VP debate tonight was totally biased.
She is an obama supporter, and obama had even attended her wedding!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

She allowed biden to interrupt and talk out of turn!!!!!!!!!!!!! And then she would also cut off Ryan!!

As far as abortion after rape, a friend of mine was a baby from rape, she is now an adult, married, with kids of her own..

And my 15 yr old mom gave her life for me, she died during my birth..

I'm done watching ALL ABC programming after this!!!!!!!!!!

Obama needs to take a walk.

[GOP-R--Con-Men]

The irony of voting for the GOP republicans to run America even as they plot and push unamerican voter suppression schemes. All while lying to voters non stop. The irony, the irony.

[Slim2471]

Unamerican voter suppression -- like requiring people to show IDs to demonstrate that they are, in fact, American? Yeah, that's so appalling...

[GraniteGuy2012]

Ironically, I think there is a greater chance of a 269-269 Electoral tie than there is a repeat of 2000.

Can you imaging the arm twisting of Electors on both sides to try and get that one Elector to change their vote? (And the bizarre but humorous possibility that one Elector on each side changes votes and it stays 269-269!).

There are actually 6 different combinations of results based on the 30 or so states that are locked in solidly to one candidate or the other.

[Slim2471]

You should look up the definition of "ironically".

[Dancing-in-the-Streets]

"President Obama would be a lame-duck president on Day One of his second term," he said. "He would not have any mandate to initiate policy, and power would reside in Congress rather than the White House."
-------------------------------

And THIS B.S. is why we need to show them a Landslide Victory for Obama and show as many repubs as possible the door! They've forgotten the word co-operation, they think its their way or the highway...well we need to show them the highway!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OBAMA/BIDEN/and a Democratic Congress 2012!!!!!

[GraniteGuy2012]

Really dancing? Co-operation requires compromise on BOTH sides. What have the Democrats been willing to give up? NOT A DAMN THING! They think agreeing with 100% of their policies is "co-operation"!

Obama will be a party to a landslide alright....the LOSING Party!

[Lerianis4]

Graniteguy2012, the Democrats have compromised and moved as far to the right (actually, they have moved too far to the right) as they should have in years before.

It's now time to tell the Republicans "No more, we are not moving any further towards fascism and you are going to have to start doing the compromising, which you were NOT doing in the past 12 years!"

[wilsmith24]

I have been watching politics sense I was 12, It is a bit amazing, I have never seen a person so boldly lie and change his view at the drop[ of a hat as Romney has. Are people really buying that smeel. Read his website. It clearly shows 9 tax cut and 8 are for his rich buddies. Do the people of this country just like being screwwed?

[GraniteGuy2012]

Wil.....REALLY? Obama is a Pathological liar! Cut the deficit in 1/2? LIE....Close Gitmon....LIE.....A stupid movie most of the Arab World DID NOT EVEN SEE when Al-Qaeda killed our Ambassador in Lybia....LIE LIE LIE! Barack INSANE Obama is the LIAR (At least Clinton was getting some in the issues he LIED about)

[Lerianis4]

GraniteGuy2012, again.... he COULD have cut the deficit in 1/2 if he had been allowed to put into place the progressive policies and laws that would have allowed him to do so.

The Republicans wouldn't allow that because if things got too good, too fast while Obama was in office, the people of America would realize "Holy crap...... The Republicans are wrong on near everything! We'd better not vote them into office ever again!"

[bigmanfrommaine]

If this happens the Republicans will never ever let it go. It doesn't matter that they were the beneficiaries in 2000. They have an amazing cynicism for the truth. Fox news would have an aneurysm reporting how Obama stole the election and was born on Mars and yada yada yada. The sad part is how many people actually buy this garbage

[bluejacket2-2009]

The southern confederate states can have their children vote to increase national numbers if they want but in the end the northern states with a huge electoral advantage will always favor democracy and the freedom of all including minorities...

The only way for the GOP is to prevent the increasing numbers of African and Latino Americans from voting-which is fascism.

[GraniteGuy2012]

Numbnuts....which party freed the slaves REPUBLICANS...which party wanted to continue slavery...THE DEMOCRATS....

[Lerianis4]

GraniteGuy2012.... the parties have DONE A COMPLETE 180! What were the Republicans in the Civil War are now the Democrats of today.

[tepeterso]

Fantasy article. But could happen. Yes the Consitutution is clear about the winner is the winner of the Electoral College. It mentioned the SCOTUS decision but did not delve into that further,issue was the SCOTUS decision constitutional? The minority on SCOTUS at the time did not think so.

[Lerianis4]

The Constitution needs to be changed on this issue, so that the popular vote is the means by which the President is elected.

The excuses for the Electoral College don't exist anymore. We have a relatively well educated populace who can get educated on various issues and usually do, contrary to the Republicans ********.

[tsigili]

When 2/3 rds of the country, are conservative, why should the 1/3 that is liberal be allowed to dictate to the other 2/3 rds?

That is what the popular vote would actually do......and that is WHY we have the electoral college, in the first place, and precisely why it needs to STAY!

[GraniteGuy2012]

TSIGILI! You war correct...though I would like to see the Nebraska/Maine model used in every state...

[enlightenu]

"Cue the balloon drop and pop the champagne corks in Boston, right?"

A bit of a clueless statement. Scott, nobody will be celebrating in Boston if Romney were to win. He was a moderate who went far right, so yes, we dislike him now. Very much so.

[GraniteGuy2012]

As someone born and raised in Boston..the people of Boston are idiots! Mumbles Menino..6 terms? ***...Obviously they mean Romney's campaign HQ, not the general population.