New jobless rate ends four-year talking point for Romney, GOP

CBS/AP

Among the arsenal of dismal economic statistics that Mitt Romney has had at his disposal during his presidential run, one was particularly powerful: Unemployment above 8 percent for all but the first 11 days of President Obama's term.

Romney has used the number at almost every campaign stop for months, and even mentioned it in his closing remarks during Wednesday evening's debate. "We've had 43 straight months with unemployment above 8 percent," he said.

That particular talking point was shattered two days later when the unemployment rate ticked down three-tenths of a percentage point to 7.8 percent -- exactly the same as it was when Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009. It was the second Republican talking point to fall, after last week's news that more jobs have now been created than lost since Obama was sworn in.

"From a political standpoint, you don't have to be a political genius to know that this is probably good news for Obama," Republican consultant Rich Galen conceded of the latest jobs report. Nonetheless, Galen was also quick to point out the glaring caveats. "If I were the Romney guys, I would go back and say well, after four years we're back to where we started from," he said. "This is still the weakest recovery in the history of recoveries."

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Romney: Unemployment dropping because Americans are giving up

Romney had already concluded before Friday that the economy alone would not propel him to the White House; in one reflection of his broadened approach, he's giving a foreign policy speech Monday at Virginia Military Institute. Yet with Romney's main selling point his experience in the business world, his campaign can't ignore the economy. And plenty of other bleak data points reinforce his point: there are still 12 million people out of work, job growth continues to be sluggish, and if the Bureau of Labor Statistics counted those who have dropped out of the workforce, the unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent.

The 8 percent number has been a political football ever since Obama advisers projected in a pre-inaugural report that a $775 billion stimulus package would keep unemployment below 8 percent. A slightly larger stimulus did pass, but unemployment reached a high of 10 percent in October 2009. The true depth of the recession was not known until last year, when the Commerce Department said the economy had contracted 5.1 percent between late 2007 and the second quarter of 2009.

Romney aides, aware that the latest jobs figures will require a rhetorical adjustment, argue that Americans understand 7.8 percent unemployment is still too high and does not reflect a true recovery.

"Those 43-plus months with the unemployment rate above 8 percent don't just disappear. That's a big part of President Obama's record," senior adviser Kevin Madden wrote in an e-mail when asked how Romney would handle the latest jobs numbers on the campaign trail. "With the economy still sluggish, we will continue to ask voters if they can really afford another four years like the last four years. We have 23 million Americans still struggling to find work and for them, our economy isn't living up to its potential."

The campaign sent out similar talking points in an email to its surrogates titled "Americans are still waiting for a real recovery." In the e-mail, Romney aide Kristen Sabella cited the 11 percent figure as the "real unemployment rate" that includes workforce dropouts. Romney himself used it Friday at a rally in Virginia's coal country and said the reason the jobless rate has declined is "primarily due to the fact that more and more people have just stopped looking for work."

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the civilian labor force has actually grown since the beginning of the year, while the unemployment rate has, for the most part, slowly declined. Although the percentage of those employed has fallen in previous months due to more people dropping out of the workforce, analysts report that the new rate of 7.8 percent is due to an increase in the number of people who were able to find jobs in September. A Romney aide later clarified that he had been referring to the overall share of the population that has entered the job market.

Galen and other party strategists acknowledged that the jobs report is a morsel of good news for the Obama campaign after the president's weak debate performance earlier this week, but they said the bigger economic picture is hardly anything for the administration to brag about.

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Obama on jobs report: We've come "too far to turn back now"

"I'm sure that the Obama campaign will suggest this is progress, but that has to be put in the context of what you're actually doing form a policy standpoint," said GOP consultant Jim Dyke. "It appears as if their current economic policy is hoping that the data out of the Labor Department is better than the month before, and I don't think that's going to go over well with voters -- especially ones who are still hurting and looking for work."

The strategists also said voters are not as fixated on a national number as they are concerned about their own economic livelihoods and how they feel about the direction of the country. On that count, Romney still has a compelling argument to make in the next month. "Numbers and percentages get lost on people. It's how they're feeling out there and do they know people that are still looking for jobs," said veteran GOP strategist Ron Bonjean.

Romney made the point personal at his campaign event Friday morning in Abingdon, Va. "I know right now you're thinking about one job: your job," he said. "I'm thinking of your job as well."

[louisiana78611]

The new employment figures released just can't be true! People I personally know, and I, were not counted for one! Our unemployment benefits stopped many months ago. I know I will not get any benefits... BUT!... I should be counted If I reapply for unemployment benefits. I want anyone who really cares about this to let their friends know, who are still unemployed with out benefits, to reapply so they will be counted. I'll bet there are enough of us to cripple the system once this gets going. This is one effort that truly needs to go VIRAL in the USA. Please help spread this effort and we should see real numbers soon.

[rksharma-2009]

It is obvious that in order to deal with debt, we need more revenue than spending. This is clear even to a 3rd grader as 10-15 = -5 and 15 -10 = 5. But to republicans, this kind of logic makes no sense and they will continue to send this country go down in a huge debt hole.

[lgccac]

Anyone with a brain who chooses to use it knew the Obama regime would put out bogus numbers showing unemployment under 8%, coincidentally, right before the election.

If you actually count the number of people who are unemployed, the "real" unemployment number is well over 11%.

[retmw1]

So you are smarter then the people who have been doing this for years.

[1ATL1]

Here I'll show you how easy this stuff is. I predict within two weeks from now the DJIA will dip at least 500 points probably a little more. The media will make a huge deal blaming Obama. Romney will use it to say see there the economy is failing. It's all part of the script.

[nohater]

romney is frightening because he is not forthcoming about so many things such as tax returns, identifying his wealthy backers, identifying wealthy backers he met with on a yacht flying the flag of the cayman islands. romney even hid his wealthy backers behind a veiled curtain during the RNC. what else is romney hiding? with obama, he is more of an open book flaws and all. if romney is elected what more will he hide from Americans? if an individual is not forthcoming, how can anyone who isn't brain impaired trust such an individual? as an independent was leaning toward romney but started to change when he selected ryan and it's been changing from then on.

[tvwatcher5345]

ok so obama gets re-elected and the democrats maintain control of the senate...what is going to be hysterical is that republicans have to come out and vote for a mormon they don't like and a roman catholic....i will be watching FOX when they announce obama's re-election, and i have the following day off as a vacation day so i can listen to rush from noon to three, and it only cost sheldon how many tens of millions??...too funny...can't wait!! also ordering chinese food to celebrate, God Bless the republicans!

[bluejacket2-2009]

Unemployment dropping to 7.8% all but blows Romney's debate act out of the water... And, there are TWO more debates coming...

What's really funny, two conservative pollsters, Rasmussen and We Ask America (anything with America in the name is GOP RED) took 24 hour polls Thursday the day after the debate in every significant battle state and all showed Romney up... even OHIO yet we all know Ohio is NOT going to vote for the scum bag Romney after saying the auto industry should go bankrupt.....

Total politics to tick up Real Clear Politics web site for Romney..

The GOP is a bunch of sleaze bags... Romney is a phony and NOT good enough to Govern the USA-don't forget it.

[Socialistnation]

He kicke Obama' ass in the debate straight up, not even close.

[shadow1561]

We've gone too far in debt to see any meaningful recovery that will last beyond the seasonal employment people are being offered for this Christmas season. Christmas hiring is no recovery at all. We all know Americans just end up going further in debt. A person has to be really stupid to think these seasonal jobs is sign of a recovery. Polls that have been taken of businesses and companies show that they will be less likely to hire, if Obama is relected for another 4 year term. America must be a glutton for punishment to want to vote for someone who in his 4 year term has made their lives economically poorer and whom businesses and companies say will make them less likely to hire. You can't even feel sorry for our country anymore because they do the same things over and over again, expecting different results. This is insanity.

[shadow1561]

Everyone knows companies and businesses hire seasonal help this time of the year. UPS gives almost every driver a seasonl helper because their volume doubles. To call this lower unemployment rate a "recovery"is ridiculous because we all know these new jobs end after Christmas.

[ongelooflijk-2009]

No doubt, Romney was the best performer in Wednesday's debate----emphasis on 'performer'; focusing primarily on generalities and dancing upon the periphery of a majority of the issues.

Although there was little if any substance in anything he said------he sure did sound good! Could have sold a glass of saltwater to a sailor marooned at sea, which is analogous to his and Ryan's prescription for a floundering economy and struggling middle class!
I hope those watching and listening realize this and know that looking and sounding good doesn't necessarily make for the best policy!
I'm not looking for a president who is the best debater but one who is honest, deliberate, thoughtful and decisive and who wants what's best for 'all Americans'. These are qualities that Obama has and Romney doesn't!
Romney's a first-class chameleon, as evidenced by his now saying he was completely wrong about the 47% and for numerous other statements in the past!
As for the 47%, did he mean he was wrong to have said it or wrong about what he said? I guess we'll never know!

[logictoo]

I think would like someone who can think on his feet. I have to adnit that the current President is a very good reader but too sure about his comprehension. Don't know about Romney, I not heard him read very much.