By

Stephanie Condon /

CBS News/ October 3, 2012, 1:29 PM

On debate day, polls show tight race

On the day President Obama and Mitt Romney will face off in their first debate, a new round of polling shows a tight race nationally and a more competitive race in a couple key swing states.

A new Quinnipiac survey of likely voters nationwide shows Mr. Obama leading Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent. That puts the president slightly within of the poll's margin of error, which is +/- 2.2 percent. Mr. Obama's lead can be attributed in part to his 18-point lead among women.

Voters' slight preference for Mr. Obama may give Romney the advantage of going into the debate facing lower expectations -- 54 percent said they expected the president to win the debates, while 28 percent expected Romney to. Likely voters are split over who would do a better job handling the economy, with 48 percent naming Mr. Obama and 47 percent saying Romney would.

A National Journal nationwide poll shows the candidates on even footing, with 47 percent support each among likely voters.

A poll released Tuesday by NBC and the Wall Street Journal also shows a very close race: Mr. Obama leads Romney among likely voters nationally, 49 percent to 46 percent -- within the poll's 3.4 percent margin of error.

This poll similarly shows Mr. Obama with a solid lead among women, as well as among Hispanics. As many as 71 percent of likely Hispanic voters say they support him. The president also benefits from the fact that just 13 percent say the economy will get worse in the next four years -- the lowest number since Mr. Obama took office. And while a majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, 57 percent say the economy is improving.

A trio of NBC/WSJ polls in key states also show Romney gaining some ground. In Virginia, Mr. Obama leads 48 percent to 46 percent. In Florida, Mr. Obama leads 47 percent to 46 percent. In a September NBC/WSJ survey, Mr. Obama led in both states by five points.

However, Mr. Obama still holds a solid eight-point lead among likely voters in Ohio (51 percent to 43 percent).

A Suffolk University poll also shows Mr. Obama leading by just three points among likely voters Florida -- within the poll's four-point margin of error. Mr. Obama takes 46 percent to Romney's 43 percent, while 7 percent remain undecided.

Fifty-two percent of likely voters in this survey expect Mr. Obama to win tonight's debate, while 19 percent say Romney will.

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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    Stephanie Condon is a political reporter for CBSNews.com.

160 Comments Add a Comment
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walkthetalk says:
Hey! There zillions of them, Obama Bong lovers, out there. If we are real Lucky, some of stoners won't be able, to make it to the polls. I wish i had a few hundred tons, of weed to give away, come Nov.
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walkthetalk says:
TOO much chom!
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Misty60 says:
Substantive issues O won, Romeny did do better than I thought he would except for one comment - if your 60 or older you don't have to listen.
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noblahma says:
Wow. I thought I knew who I was going to vote for. Now I'm not so sure. Obama looked clueless and weak. What happened to him? I am stunned.
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sharkboy234 says:
Obama is in it to win it
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alphabet77-2009 says:
Romney had red, crazy eyes and was throwing out really puzzling comments.

For instance, that he was not cutting any taxes at all.

What?

Until now he's been saying that he wanted to cut taxes. The Tax Policy Center has been evaluating the plan he put forward to reduce the tax system to 2 tax brackets: 10% and 25%, lower the tax for corporations, and do away with tax on capital gains, dividends, and inheritances. It was the Tax Policy Center that has been estimating that Romney would be spending more than $4 trillion in tax cuts.

And now, midway through the debate, Romney springs on everyone that he isn't going to cut taxes at all. Can a candidate just switch his policies on the fly like that, at any time?

How do you know what his policy is going to be tomorrow?

How can you argue with someone like that?
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butch2312 replies:
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I don't know where you're getting your information from. Romney's Five Point Economic Plan has been on his website for weeks. http://www.mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2012/08/mitt-romneys-plan-stronger-middle-class01

Maybe you'd like to read it instead of making false accusations.
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dhk08002 says:
I'm shocked, my atoms in my body can actually feel Romny's gavity of influence... and that debate was so close it got no where. Now I have to see another debate to see who's the better canadite for this election. Something tells me that this year's election is gonna get tighter and uglier than anticipated.

Plus, this debate was so thrilling it actually brought me to the edge of my couch.I'm having popcorn for the next debate.
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walkthetalk says:
Dude! Don't you watch Public Bull S&*% news, alias PBS. These Clowns are Obama Clones. Sad to think my hard earned Tax $'s, fund Chaiman Mao TV.
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walkthetalk says:
He's on his own ten yrd line, now he's at 40, he just crossed the 80, OOPS! now he's back at his own, three yrd line. It's gonna be one L of a game folks, stay tunned.
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marcie10000 says:
ENOUGH! I am watching Mitt Romney and his painted on closed-lip half-smile and non-blinking Tyra Banks eye smile - and I cannot stand to hear him engage in utter lies. Yet the President keeps his cool and talks in common language. Can't wait to see how Fox News spins Romney's performance!
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