Are polls "biased" to boost Obama?

Gillespie argued that pollsters' overstated predictions of Democratic voter turnout would explain why "Governor Romney could be tied or leading with independents in those polls and yet losing the net poll to President Obama."

Critics have also argued that in addition to oversampling Democrats, pollsters are undersampling people who might be sympathetic to Republicans.

"Everyone right now believes that the polls are biased to President Obama because of this kind of a sample," said conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt in an interview earlier this month with Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "I'll tell you what's on people's minds. I'd really love to hear you answer it, which is that was the height of the President Obama 'Hope and Change' movement. He was extraordinarily strong in November of 2008... Against that backdrop, what level would you become concerned as a professional pollster that you had oversampled Democrats?"

Many nonpartisan pollsters, including Miringoff, say they weigh their surveys using available statistical data - and not by party identification and other characteristics that might change over time.

"We do not weight for party ID," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which is conducting battleground state polls along with CBS News and the New York Times. "We do not predetermine how many Democrats, Republicans and independents will be in our sample."

The reason, he says, is that "party ID is a changing statistic. People will over time change back and forth in terms of how they view themselves politically."

Instead, Brown says the polls are weighted by "immutable characteristics - race, gender, age." Respondents are then asked their party identification during the interviews.

"We do that because there is a set standard that we can compare ourselves with to make sure we're getting an accurate demographic representative. And that standard is the United States Census Bureau data," said Brown. "What we get is what we get," he added.

Moreover, some pollsters argue that using the 2008 turnout numbers to draw conclusions, as Gillespie and others have done, ignores the fact that state demographics are likely to change over a period of four years.

In an interview with CBSNews.com, Miringoff pointed to the fact that "there are a lot more Latino voters this year than there were four years ago. Exit polls from four years ago aren't going to pick up that change." Similarly, he argues, 2004 exit polls wouldn't have suggested that Mr. Obama could compete in traditionally Republican-friendly states like North Carolina and Virginia - but he won both in 2008.

"The numbers that people are using as the yardstick for whether pollsters like us are wrong are the exit polls from last election," said Miringoff. "They were good for the time they were taken, but that was four years ago."

Still, some Republicans argue that there's a so-called "confirmation bias" among pollsters that's impacting how they conduct their surveys.

Erick Erickson, a conservative blogger who has recently been critical of Romney, said that even though he believes Romney is behind, polling organizations are likely influenced by a Democratic bent.

"I do not believe the polls are all wrong. I do not believe there is some intentional, orchestrated campaign to suppress the GOP vote by showing Mitt Romney losing. I actually believe that Mitt Romney trails Barack Obama," Erickson wrote in a blog post on Wednesday. "But I also believe the polls are reflecting a bigger Democratic strength than is really there."

Erickson points to a so-called "confirmation bias" in mainstream polls, citing a blog post by the National Review's Jim Geraghty. "The polls are confirming what the press thinks and that they have a larger than 2008 Democratic turnout is of no consequence to them," he writes.

Miringoff dismissed the notion that polling agencies would fall prey to such a media bias.

"Even if I could in any way do what pollsters are often accused of doing when others don't like the results, there's no motive," he said. "There is an election and somebody is going to win and when they do we will either look good or we will look bad. I would prefer to choose the right candidate with as a close as a point spread as possible."

Politically, he said, "we don't have any skin in this. We're evaluated on how accurate we are."

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[Diagora5]

Here are the actual election margins from the battleground states in 2008, along with Rasmussen's poll margins:

Colorado - actual: Obama +8.5, Rasmussen: Obama +4 (skewed McCain by 4.5 points)
Florida - actual: Obama +2.5, Rasmussen: McCain +1 (skewed McCain by 3.5 points)
Indiana - actual: Obama +1, Rasmussen: McCain +3 (skewed McCain by 4 points)
Iowa - actual: Obama +9.5, Rasmussen: Obama +8 (skewed McCain by 1.5 points)
Nevada - actual: Obama +12.5, Rasmussen: Obama +4 (skewed McCain by 8.5 points)
New Hampshire - actual: Obama +9.5, Rasmussen: Obama +7 (skewed McCain by 2.5 points)
North Carolina - actual: Obama +0.5, Rasmussen: McCain +1 (skewed McCain by 1.5 points)
Ohio - actual: Obama +4, Rasmussen: tie (skewed McCain by 4 points)
Pennsylvania - actual: Obama +10.5, Rasmussen: Obama +6 (skewed McCain by 4.5 points)
Virginia - actual: Obama +6.5, Rasmussen: Obama +4 (skewed McCain by 2.5 points)
Wisconsin - actual: Obama +14, Rasmussen: Obama +7 (skewed McCain by 7 points)

So, the average skew for Rasmussen's polls in the battleground states in 2008 was 4 points toward the Republican candidate, and they skewed toward the Republican in EACH AND EVERY ONE of these polls (an undeniable sign of bias). And in the 2010 midterm elections, Rasmussen's polls were skewed almost 6 points toward Republican candidates, clearly making their organization less accurate and more biased than all of their major competitors.

Rasmussen's obvious flaw is that it "adjusts" the results of Democrats' responses in each of their polls (i.e. reduces them), because they assume that they are constantly oversampling Democrats. But how could they accidentally oversample Democrats in virtually every single race? That doesn't make sense, especially when on average more people across the nation have identified with the Democrats for decades. Regardless, Rasmussen always reduces the Democrats' total in their polls by 4-6%, which explains why they were so obviously biased 4-6% toward Republican candidates in the 2008 and 2010 election cycles.

If you still refuse to acknowledge that Rasmussen's polls are biased toward Republicans, then you have been SERIOUSLY propagandized by the proven liars at Fox News. They will tell you whatever they need to in order to make you hysterical, because hysterical people are easy to manipulate.

[bobwest123]

Mitt Romney, is a liar, he do or say anything to get elected. But if he does get elected the REAL Romney will come out to play. Someone who said "poor people are NOT my concern, 47% of Americans are free loaders. Fire people and ship their jobs to China. He will go to war with Iran. Where is this man mandate? Were is his policies? I heard him say on a video tape that "HE WILL DO NOTHING, that Obama policies IS WORKING and if elected he get all the credit for Obama policies. Why didn't Obama bring this up? He wouldn't lie his way out of this it's on tape. Anyway I happy that President Obama, do NOT tell lies. What did Mitt Romney win? Being a bully? Lying? That all he did, President Obama was only quoting what Mitt, said on his campaign. CBS,CNN/Fox news one of the same a sham and full of lies and deception. Mitt is a horrible man, who is a liar that have NO mandate or policies. Mitt backers want a war with the middle east. If he elected he will, start a war with Iran. The current Vice President son is serving, NONE OF HIS FIVE SONS WILL BE GOING TO WAR ALSO. BUT IT'S OK FOR THE 47% TO GO TO WAR. I notice all the countries the Republican NUT party have gone to war with ARE OIL COUNTRIES.

[ihateignorants]

if you actually think oblahblahblah is doing good you sure are ignorant. 47% of Americans will vote for oblahblahblah no matter what, so Mitt is right! it is not his job to worry about them. He will never change their minds, why waste the effort. get out of your house or pick up your obama phone and check the facts you ignorant ****.

[jeannutson]

One fact that still stands clear is that the performance of the economy,the extent to which Obama has been able to fulfill his campaign promises and the final decisions of undecided voters will surely play a major role in the outcome of the election regardless of what any survey results may show.

[Diagora5]

So the Republicans block most of what Obama wanted to do, and it is somehow his fault?

You only believe that if you have been propagandized by Fox News.

[yu1832]

Mitt Romney made 42 million in 2010 and 21 million in 2011. Have you wondered how did Mitt Romney made his fortune? Robert Reich, a professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley, explains it in a 3-minute video. Go to Youtube and search for


How Did Mitt Romney Get So Rich? Robert Reich Explains


Unlike Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Romney wasn't a job creator. Romney made his fortune by 'Harvesting' companies for profit. Romney outline Bain's business model in a 1985 video. Watch the original footage of video for yourself. Go to Youtube and search for

Mitt Romney on Bain's plan to buy and harvest companies


Your comment or criticism is welcome, but please watch the video before you reply.

[Banqueno]

So lets look at what you statement is saying, you are saying basically that Romney made his money by just gutting companies for his gain right?, the real answer you should look at is that Romney put his brain power to work for him and he did that very well, what I don't hear from you and your partisan thoughts is the fact that Romney stole this mony from other corporations for his gain, this is a stupid assumption in your part simply because he turnned around many companies and made them profitable which is something you or ordinary people can do, it takes smarts and guts to make the call on whether or not a company will succeed, so get off the Democarats talking points and focus what the Obamma and the Democrats have done to this country (6 Trillion in debt and growing in less than 4 years).

[nov6]

"There are a lot more Latino voters this year than there were four years ago"?
PEW just came out about 4 million more Latino are eligible to vote compared to 08 and only half of them will vote. 130 million voted in 08 .The 2 MILLION
new Latino voters only add about 2%. So that is helping Obama leading by 4 to 8 points in the polls, Liberals realy cant do MATH

[aintfakin]

your math and lib math
right wingers live in a perfect world
whenever something comes out they dont like it is "biased"
who is "biased" here????

get a grip
try a little of that personal responsibility you right wingers tout all the time and quit yer cryin and lyin

[sloan5]

If Ann Romney is worried about the mental capacity of Mitt Romeny if elected as President, my God do we need a nit witt and mentally incapable presiden to run the country? Of course his wife knows best. This shows how stupid Ann Romney talking about her husband mental capcity if he wins the presidency. America, we dont want a president who is mentally incapable and and will have mental issues if he wins the Presidency.Ann Romney is destroying her own husband and making him lose this election. We want a President like Obama who has all his faculties in place,.Can Romney handle a 3:00 a.m phone call in case there is an emergency? He will fall apart and Ann Romney will be there to hold his hand but unfortunately can not make decisions. Good Luck!


Go Obama Biden 2012!

[jbonnit]

Your kidding me right? We want a president who has the highest unemployment since the Great Depression and has Put every Americans share of the National Debt at over $51,000.00 per person, not per family!!!!!!!!! PER PERSON!

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 03 Oct 2012 at 09:30:34 PM GMT is:
$16,174,869,656,750.64

The estimated population of the United States is 313,619,041
so each citizen's share of this debt is $51,574.90.

Ya, I want the same guy back in office,,,,,LMAO

Romney/Ryan 2012

[walkthetalk]

Fair and unbiased, only exist in Heaven. Maybe Mr. Rommey will have better luck there?

[apu_20]

"Media is biased"; Polls say.
"Media is not biased"; Media says.

Well, that certainly reassuring.

[1stlttightwad]

This debate is going to be great!!! People will hear from Romney..WITHOUT it being redacted,cut, edited and misconstrued by the main stream and the super biased media...Suck it up libs. The truth is fixin' to come out and you ain't gonna like it. Obama can't handle himself with his trusy ole telepromter..can he...Off the cuff he stumbles and bumbles and can't remember what he said.

[47_percenter]

Soooo all the polls are wrong and just by chance ONLY Romney's is correct? I am not making wine with those grapes. They are quite sour and I am going to get sports cream for the losers they are awfully sore. They are already saying that Romney will probably lose the debate because the dems and liberals will skew that too. Just Like Rush to eat Limbaugh said that Obama had the national weather service make the hurricane warning bigger than it was to delay the RNC. And let me see... MR (Mitt Romney or Mentally Retarded, both apply to him)talking about the 47% in PRIVATE to RICH FAT CATS and saying something else to us is telling the truth? You put alot on Obamas lying because you have nothing else to say. He is a good man, Romney even said so,that means if Romney is telling the truth but you do not believe it then he is lying but if he tells the truth then how could he tell a lie, but if he is lying then how is he telling the truth... ERRORRRRRR!!! LMBO Like my Star Trek Reference? Put some butter and jelly on him cuz C. Mittgomery Burns is toast! Now I hope they will leave Obama alone so he can do his job. Maybe they will with no election to try to stop him from winning.