Poll: Obama opens substantial leads in key swing states

(CBS News) With less than six weeks until Election Day, President Obama has opened up significant leads over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters.

Mr. Obama holds a 10-point lead in Ohio among those who say they will definitely vote, a lead propelled by a 25-point advantage among women. Romney holds an 8-point lead among men. The president holds a 35-point edge among voters under 35 years old, and a 5-point lead among those ages 35-64; the two candidates are effectively tied among Ohio seniors. Sixty-two percent of Ohio likely voters say the auto bailout, which had a significant impact on the state's economy, was a success, while just 30 percent say it was a failure. Both candidates will campaign in Ohio Wednesday; the president led Romney by six points in the state last month.

Mr. Obama also holds a huge lead among women in Pennsylvania, where his advantage overall stands at 12 points. The president leads his opponent by 21-points among women, and they are split among men. The two candidates also split the support of whites, but the president holds an 87 percent to 11 percent lead among nonwhites. Romney holds a 5-point lead among Pennsylvania seniors, but that is more than offset by the president's 14-point lead among those ages 35-64 and 34-point lead among those under 35.

In Florida, Mr. Obama's edge over Romney has risen from three points before the political conventions to nine points today. His gains are due to improved performance among women, white voters and seniors. Nearly half of Florida Democrats now say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in the past - up from 24 percent at the start of August, and only slightly less than the percentage of Florida Republicans who are more enthusiastic. Two in three Florida likely voters support the DREAM Act policies put in place by the president to allow young illegal immigrants who came to the country as children to obtain work permits and not face deportation.

Here are the overall figures: Mr. Obama leads 53 percent to 43 percent in Ohio. He leads 54 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. And he leads 53 percent to 44 percent in Florida. In all three states, the president is seen as better able to handle the economy. And in all three states, majorities of voters think Romney's policies will favor the rich.

The poll is not all bad news for Romney. The race is far closer among voters who say they are paying a lot of attention to the campaign - it's a tie among that group in Ohio, and Mr. Obama's lead in Florida shrinks to four among this subset. And in two of the states, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Republicans remain considerably more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting this year.

Still, there is little here for the Republican presidential nominee to celebrate. Mr. Obama holds six point leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania on the question of who would do a better job on the economy, and a five point lead on that question in Florida. Last month, Romney led in Florida on handling the economy.

And in the wake of the release of Romney's secretly-recorded "47 percent" comments, 56 percent of Florida likely voters, 58 percent of Ohio likely voters, and 59 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say his policies would favor the rich.

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[VLiniP]

I agree Zenia, Do your homework monkey, oh thats right monkeys can't read or add.

[nomorebama]

Did leftist Obama all of a sudden become a moderate? NO he hasn't...Obama lied through his teeth throughout the entire debate!!!! It was disgusting! His record proves that he is a extreme leftist and everything he said was to try and appease the mainstream Americans and is not his true agenda!

[VLiniP]

Are you kidding me. You go ahead an believe the rhetoric of your flip flop artist MITT. You can thank us for saving your "rightwing I know better for all" hind end after Obama takes this one again. YOUR PROBABLY ONE OF THAT 47% HE TALKS ABOUT, Just to stupid to realize he means you.

[MrsCarrasco]

Very surprised that Romney would say that he would ask parents to their daughters to get married in order to better the the nation? To be married doesn't always better the nation. Remember divorce ruins credit and someone retirement for most all middle class. To tell a nation during a debate is very surprising.

Please boys just answer the questions.

[Beadwindow2030]

Oh, really? Twenty plus days will tell then, eh? What will all the liberal pollsters say when Romney wipes out this scourge.

[stevehamilton858]

One data point does not a trend make. The fact that Romney overwhelmed the moderator to get to speak over 60% more than the president was a factor in the perception that Romney had given a much stronger performance than the president. But, in my judgment, the president's staffers could have done a better job preparing him for Romney disavowing the $5.7 trillion calculation by the CBO of lost revenue from his tax cuts. If the president had been given a 3"X5" card with half a dozen subtotals from the CBO calculation, the president could have destroyed Romney's credibility in the first few minutes of debate. Someone on the president's staff should have planned for the probability that Romney would act as he did.

I believe this article emphasizes the key variables that ought to be tracked: who is ahead and by how much in the swing states. That should be the best predictor of who's going to end up living at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next year.

[VLiniP]

Amen

[rockerrick]

FRI OCT 05, 2012 AT 10:05 AM PDT
What Debate? Gallup +1 Obama (50-45)
byNCJimFollow
22
PERMALINK 19 COMMENTS
Short diary with good news.

The Gallup Daily Tracking poll which includes one day after the debate has Obama ticking up one percentage point.

Guess lying, bullying, flip flopping and drinking coffee for the first time didn't pay Mitt.

And now the news will be all about the jobs report.

[owldog]

The pundits after the debate were nauseating - you think they were talking about a beauty contest or a boxing match - glad to see the people are speaking.

BTW - debates are now sponsored by mega-corporations and their lobbyist, not exactly non-partisan.

[rksharma-2009]

Romney changes his position every day. Today he wanted to appeal to the center so he changed his positions. According to him, the Bush taxes to become permanent, cut taxes by 20%, remove estate tax, and further lower the corporate taxes. All these numbers add up to 4.8 trillion dollars in taxes. You add another 2 trillion on new defense spending, does add up to 6.8 trillion dollars, close to 7 trillion dollars. Why was he denying this? He wants to repeal Obama care, and replace it with what? When Romney says that his plan does include people covered for preconditions. Not true. It is only true for those people who are already have health insurance, and they were to lose job and no longer are on health care for 90 days, then these people are covered for preconditions. He lied through out the debate, and it is unfortunate that the President did not call him up on all his lies. President was way too civil. I wish he had gone after Romney and taken off the shelter that he is hiding under.

[tryhonesty]

Mitt Witt Willard is the largest FlipFlopper, NO CORE on record. His vp pick Ryan (Lyan, Joe McCarthy II) is just a plain LIAR. Willard (Silver Spoon) can never relate to an Average American. Willard has been abusing the Average American Worker most of his adult life.

[MonkeyTree1]

OBAMA JUST LIES

Obama has destroyed the country with Big Government expansion, deficit spending, and obstruction of the conservative reforms.
The Government sector is the new Elite sector. They now make all the money and get all the benefits.
Politicians will not vote for a pay cut. The government sector can afford to have children.

So those of you in the private sector your the new poor and the slave to the government sector wishes.

Cant you see the division that's going on
Get a Clue

VOTE FOR ROMNEY

[zenia5]

I think Monkey's been in his tree a little too long.