How Romney could survive a loss in Ohio or Virginia

Republican presidential candidate Gov. Mitt Romney speaks at a campaign fundraising event in Atlanta, Wednesday, Sept. 19, 2012. / AP Photo/Charles Dharapak

This article originally appeared on RealClearPolitics.

(CBS News) One is a state that every successful Republican presidential candidate has won since 1856. The other was considered a "safe" stronghold for modern GOP White House hopefuls as recently as 2004.

But of the eight states that likely will decide the presidential race, Ohio and Virginia are the ones most frequently cited by Republican strategists (in private conversations) as worrisome for Mitt Romney heading into the campaign's final dash.

"Their biggest concern right now is: How do they win Ohio and Virginia?" one GOP strategist said, echoing comments made by several other national Republicans outside of the Romney campaign. "They've got an issue with those two states."

Obama leads in Ohio by 4.8 percent and in Virginia by 4.7 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling averages.

There are many reasons why Romney's climb looks steeper in these two states than it does in other battlegrounds, but at the heart of the matter is a perception that the economies in both are rebounding faster than is the case elsewhere.

It is a sentiment that has been highlighted by the Republican governors in the two states, each of whom has had to balance touting the economic improvement under his own leadership while being careful not to credit Obama.

"We had lost 400,000 jobs -- our people were hurting, and our families were hurting as a result of the recession," Ohio's John Kasich said at the Republican National Convention. "But when we came to power with my colleagues in the legislature, we took our problems head-on."

Virginia's current unemployment rate of 5.9 percent is well below the national average of 8.1 percent, and Ohio's 7.2 percent rate is buttressed by renewed economic activity surrounding a revived American automobile industry. The latter comes on the heels of the bailout championed by Obama early in his term -- a rescue that Romney opposed.

"You can't have Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan chastising the president and his record for a high unemployment rate at a national level and not give him credit for a lower rate in certain states," said Democratic strategist Maria Cardona. "You can't have it both ways."

Amid the daily barrage of often contradictory swing-state polling, the two campaigns agree that Ohio and Virginia remain tightly contested, and each side continues to expend financial resources, deploy field operatives, and utilize the candidates' time in both states on a scale perhaps unsurpassed elsewhere.

There is a scenario whereby Romney could eke out an Electoral College win while suffering defeats in both states, but he would have to run the table in the other six tossups, including Wisconsin, which had been viewed as leaning firmly in Obama's direction until native son Ryan was added to the GOP ticket. (The president currently holds a 6.4 percentage point lead there, according to the RCP Average.)

A more likely strategy for Romney to survive, should he lose Ohio, would be for him to hang onto Virginia and then pick off either Iowa or Wisconsin -- states Obama won by double digits in 2008.

Iowa affords a relatively modest six electoral votes to the winner but has been a major focus of the Obama campaign lately. (The RCP Average shows the president with a razor-thin 0.2 percent lead.) He took a three-day bus tour of the state last month and Vice President Biden has also traveled there frequently.

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[SkeezixB]

The blackbox is not a ballot.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/story/2012-09-19/electronic-voting-fraud-security/57809062/1

[No-soup-for-you]

by EmpireGeorge______
Obama and HIllary are responsible for the worst foreign policy disaster in our history...

--------------

Again, Empire skips riiiiiight over his hero GWB...

What a clown.

[inbethlehem]

You must be very young or very dumb. I think I would rank the Vietnam war, the War in Iraq, 9/11, Pearl Harbor, the Bay of Pigs, The USS Cole, The first World Trade Center bombing and about a hundred other events higher.

Oh, I almost forgot...and Mitt the Twit's European tour this summer.

[anneshelby]

If he stopped attacking US embassies it might help Romney. Just a hunch.

[EmpireGeorge______--]

How about if Obama would stop putting the Terrorists Muslim Brotherhood in power, in various countries like Libya and Egypt, his Middle-East policy wouldn't be exploding in his face (pardon the pun).

Obama and HIllary are responsible for the worst foreign policy disaster in our history.....this makes Carter and the Shah, seem like nothing.

[fxr60]

All Romney has to do is show them how to run a business and get EVERYONE working again! Also point out that the CBO has just come out with the estimate the new tax bill ( Obamacare) will hit 6 MILLION middle class citizens with 50% HIGHER TAXES than reported. This will effect people making UNDER $200,000 that Obama said that it would NOT affect. CBO said nearly 80% of those facing penalty would be making up to or less that five times the Federal poverty level. Currently that would work out to $55,850 or less for an individual and $115,250 or less for a family. Penalty would be about $1200.00. "Bad news and broken promises from Obamacare keep on piling up" said one Senator. If the Bush tax expires-it will only be worse for the people. Weak on defense and terrorism, economy, gas prices higher, 43 mos. of unemployment, 23 million Americans out of work, $16 TRILLION in debt. and household incomes have fallen more than $4,000. Think its time to give someone else a chance to turn this country around and I think Romney/Ryan ticket can do it!!!!

[marychgo]

There are nearly 160 million households in the United States; the six million you're screaming about represents 3.75% of the total. And every one of those households could avoid paying that horrible, outrageous $1,200 tax if they just got health insurance!

[reubenrcbs]

I am sorry to say, I don't understand why anyone would want to vote for Romney, unless you were one of the uber rich. Even if you were a single issue voter, about concern for the unborn, about traditional values, whatever those might be, it would seem that your lively hood is going to be jeopardized, diminished or eradicated, if this man gets his way. He is not trustworthy in any stretch of the imagination. Is that what we want from our leaders? If he is so against people, people like us who are not paying as much taxes today as we did when we were working, then he really doesn't understand people or this economy at all. To me, he seems dangerous. What with all his talk about war and throwing away half our population. We're having problems but we need some one who will work for us all and is a tad optimistic about solving the problems.

[Kieren1]

Romney could only afford to lose 2 of all of the swing states. It's not at all likely given Obama is leading in all of them.

[melbatom]

You do not know at this stage of the play who will win what. If the current adminstration prevails you can bet business will stop in its track and move to other nations. This democratic party system is anti business and for all purposes the current adminstration has NO BUSINESS EXPERIENCE for business purposes of any signifcant amount. Sorry but the poles are just not true.

[filmguy107]

Better Question: How can America survive a Romney win????

[cubscout09]

Did you know that Ohio is one of "16 states that let companies divert some or all of the state income taxes deducted from workers' paychecks. None of the states requires notifying the workers, whose withholdings are treated as taxes they paid."

http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johnston/2012/04/12/taxed-by-the-boss/

[TimeToEvolve]

Who cares about Robbed Me anyway? The Republicons have not given us a decent President since Eisnehower for God's sake. We must use this opportunity to purge out government of the Wall Street plants (Republicons) and get a real second political party in America.

[cubscout09]

Ford was the best, but, somehow I don't recall ever voting for him.