Obama has slight edge in electoral map estimate

CBS News

(CBS News) If there's one constant in the presidential race, it's this: A small group of states that will decide things. CBS News now estimates President Obama has 237 electoral votes at least leaning his way; Mitt Romney has 206, based on state and national trends over recent weeks, state characteristics, and the demographic groups currently in play. These figures include those from still-contested battleground states that are now also leaning (for the moment, anyway) to one side or another. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.

Wisconsin remains a tossup race and a battleground, as it was even before Paul Ryan's selection. If anything it's gotten even more tossup-y. Our Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT poll out today shows the president holding his lead there but the gap has closed to two. The state's partisan profile and electoral history points to tight races - 2008's wide margin was the exception, not the rule - and it figures to be that way again.

The overall electoral math remains focused on big toss-up prizes like Ohio and Florida. In both places the President has held leads, as he does in our newest polls, but they're certainly not large enough to overcome any variations in turnout or shifts in allegiance from softer supporters as we go forward. Smaller toss-ups like Colorado and Nevada out west, and Iowa and New Hampshire, continue to play pivotal roles.

A lot of data out this summer - including our own polling - suggest the president is ahead in Pennsylvania. This may not surprise, as the state's Democratic-leaning history would suggest that so long as Mr. Obama is leading (or close to even) nationally - as he is - Pennsylvania would be among those more likely to stay in his camp. (The state has voted Democratic since 1992 no matter the national winner.) So it leans blue right now but remains on our battleground list of states to watch, as Romney still has the potential to make inroads - especially if he generates a national wave later on.

North Carolina remains a battleground to watch, too, but also should be considered leaning slightly to Romney. Recall that Mr. Obama barely won the state in '08 in a year that he had a national wave at his back. North Carolina upped its Democratic vote share that year at a greater rate than many other states did, and Mr. Obama outperformed other recent Democrats across smaller counties and with white voters and men. But Romney's stronger standing among those groups, coupled with a still-tough state economy, make this a comparably larger challenge for the Democrats, who could keep it in their column if they maximize their base turnout. Both sides are spending and organizing hard, so stay tuned. Meanwhile New Mexico, with strong support from Hispanic voters, appears more likely for Mr. Obama.

Battlegrounds (10 total):

Ohio (current race status: Tossup), Florida (status: Tossup), Colorado (status: Tossup), Iowa (status: Tossup) , New Hampshire (status: Tossup), Wisconsin (status: Tossup), Virginia (status: Tossup), North Carolina (status: leans Romney), Pennsylvania (status: leans Obama), Nevada (status: toss up)

[gbrum]

Romney 272 Obama 266

Count it.

[RollotheNorman]

Point your browser here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

I'm not sure why RCP is showing FL in the Willard column. By their own average FL is a dead heat, although the latest CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll shows +3 for Obama, and the other two averaged would be basically junk polls. This means if the vote were taken today, (if you give Obama FL) the result would be about where it has been stuck the last 6 months - Obama 332/Willard 206, Willard loses by either 33 or 62 EV. And there shall be wailing and gnashing of teeth.

[marychgo]

Here's hoping strong grassroots work can overcome the GOP's reprehensible voter suppression efforts in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. NO ONE wants to see anyone vote who's not eligible, but it's simply unAmerican to try to keep ELIGIBLE voters from voting!

[Eco99]

The whole Electoral College is antiquated and goes against the whole one person one vote that we claim is so great about democracy. The problem is it will never be addressed as both parties have a vested interest in maintaining it as serves to suppress third parties from becoming viable. Our two party system is broken but the people that can fix will never do so. Look at all the other "Democracies", none of them operate as ours does and money has much less influence and bipartisianship is needed to get things done.

[RollotheNorman]

Absolutely.

[DarrylHP]

I agree. The only chance we have is a Constitutional amendment via the (never used) method stated in Article V, where two-thirds of the state legislatures ask Congress to call a national convention to propose amendments.

Let's get on with it!

[wfw3536]

Romney will win Wisconsin which will put him over the 270. Picking Ryan will be the decision that will win it for Romney.

[RollotheNorman]

Naw, despite recent rumors, WI is not a swing'n state. Couple of more weeks will clarify that.

[wfw3536]

RollotheNorman------------RealClearPolitics has Wisconsin as a swing state ever since Ryan was picked. In fact a couple of Polls show Romney ahead in recent days.

[LIBERTY_GRACE]

Romney will win every swing state. I see a landlside on the horizon.

[RollotheNorman]

Right now, if the election was held today, the EV total would be Obama 303 Romney 235. You're not seeing so good apparently.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

[GOP-R--Con-Men]

I have been analysing the GOP for years and I have deciphered their playbook. And some of the things they do will seem strange unless you know what their goals/end game actually is. Remember everything they do is toward that end.

1. Republicans love deficits when they are the party that creates them. Now you might say, why is that? Republicans hate government and it's ability to help ordinary Americans. Have any republican president EVER ran a deficit by spending money on people to benefit them? No! So what do they do? They empty the treasury wasting money on unnecessary wars and tax give a ways the corporation, big oil and the super rich and the while Americans are in dire need of help from their government. Those entities don't need the money and some never asked for it.

But republican know that they can use a empty treasury to proclaim the country is broke and we can't afford this or that program for ordinary Americans. Then they said you should pull yourself up by your boot straps. Even though republican cut the boot straps and programs that might help you. But they have NO PROBLEM giving billions to corporations, big oil and the super rich. Why would they do this? Remember republicans NEVER want government to be beneficial to Americans. So if government programs prove benefical that's a problem for republicans because it goes against their decades oud mantra that government is the problem and it must be reduced or eliminated.

There's much more to their tricks and games but you get the picture.

That's why they must be voted out of office.

[0bama2O12]

CBS are you kidding? Obama has a huge advantage over Romney.

[LIBERTY_GRACE]

Democratic enthusiasm way down.......republican up. Romney wins.

[RollotheNorman]

Yeah, but CBS is trying to keep 'em glued to the set. Chuck Todd was pulling this at MSNBC in '08 two weeks before the election. All the major polls were showing Obama up a solid 5 pts and Todd was trying to tell the audience, on the basis of secret polling that he was privy to, that it was really neck and neck. The election took place and the popular vote difference was ~ 5 pts.

[ballwyllo]

Yes if you must put it that way...if you know the guy you have now isn't getting the job done...that's when the American voters tend to make the right decision and choose a different path. So partisan polling aside, the electorate will choose to change. Finally Obama's promise of hope and change is going to come true. I hope the country changes the president!