Are the media too poll-obsessed?

CBS News

(CBS News) Did you hear about the Gallup poll that shows Mitt Romney got no immediate bounce from picking Paul Ryan as his running mate? Or the Public Policy Polling survey that has Obama leading by three points in Ohio? Or the Purple Strategies poll that shows Romney with a slight edge on Obama in Florida, Virginia and Ohio?

Joel Benenson, who tests the public opinion for the Obama campaign, thinks there's an "obsession" with polling this election that makes poll reporting excessive and oftentimes inaccurate.

"Public polls can serve a purpose, but it has got to be limited," Benenson said. "There is no value in reporting the poll of the day, just as there is the flavor of the day in an ice-cream shop."

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The White House's top pollster, who also led Obama's polling team in 2008, said he noticed there are more public polls than ever before and nearly every news organization has its own polling team. The result, he said, is too many conflicting reports.

"One will be shooing Obama up 9 points," Beneson said, referring to a CNN poll last week. "another [will have] 4 points ... Rasmussen always has Romney up."

Reporting on these various polls might be easy, Benenson said, but he wishes journalists would take into account there are often conflicting results.

It's a sentiment also shared by top Romney pollster Neil Newhouse, who said despite his many differences with Joel, they "generally agree on baseball, and on this topic." Public polls he added, will be a lot more accurate after the conventions when the companies switch from registered to likely voters.

"The hunger for the box score -- who's ahead and who's behind -- serves the appetite of the media much more than it serves the needs of the voter," he said.

Of course, there will always be "good" polls and "bad" polls - the National Council on Public Polls breaks down the more reliable surveys from the unscientific ones based on who funds the poll, how those surveyed were chosen, how many people were interviewed, etc. The fact that there's been an increase in the number of political polls out there requires readers to practice more discretion.

This is also a difficult time in the election for pollsters, as most people don't start really paying attention to the election until the conventions and Labor Day. Romney's pick of Paul Ryan for his running mate might still be little too fresh for it to really sink in with voters.

Factor in a poll's margin of error -- the Gallup poll, for example, has Romney/Ryan at 47 percent and Obama/Biden at 45 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus three points -- the race is far too close to get a really accurate sense of where the general public is leaning at this very moment.

Before readers get frustrated and skim over the latest poll headlines until the day before Election Day, CBS polling director Sarah Dutton would like to let them know the surveys are about much more than numbers -- it's worthwhile to note the theme or message.

"Our polls are as much about how voters view the candidates, the issues they care about, and why they support their chosen candidate as they are about who's ahead," said Dutton.

Dutton leads CBS News' own polling operations, which published a poll with Quinnipiac and The New York Times earlier this month that found women helped propel Obama in the swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

To get a sense of who would win at the moment, however, people will have to depend on public polls. Neither Benenson nor Newhouse would reveal their own data and conclusions from the trail. But Benenson did say that Election Day could be a real nail-biter.

"We said all along this is going to be a competitive close race, contested down to the wire," he said, adding it was definitely close in the battleground states.

[robert1129]

The only ones that are interested in the polls are the campaigns, political junkies and the media. At this early date, the rest of us could care less about the polls.

[RollotheNorman]

I think reporters should be given at least 6 semester hours in stat's and poll construction before being allowed to comment on polls. Perhaps then they could tell the difference between junk polling and sound polling, which too many can't do now.

[kbrum1066]

Polls are essentially worthless. They are easily manipulated by a number of ways and this far from the election date, there are way too many things that can change... for crying out loud the world could end any second now and make them REALLY worthless.
They can be manipulated by selecting certain areas that will swing one way or another, by phrasing the questions in a particular manner or by limiting the possible responses (most polls NEVER have the response that I REALLY want to give), etc.
BUT - there are too many gullible people out there that believe them AND there are too many people out there who will vote for "the winner" and "jump on the bandwagon" ... which may be the reason so many of these polls exist in the first place.
The sad part is that most people vote for what is in it for them rather than what is the best for the country. We have no personal responsibility in this country, we have too many people who are so lacking in self-respect that are PROUD to be on the dole, too many people who want everything given to them instead of earning what they get, too many people interfering with other peoples lives, etc.
Like Rome, we are headed for a fall....

[Jaylah54200]

by ZionistCensorship August 17, 2012 6:11 PM EDT
Who won that race at the Olympics by .001 seconds?????????

________________

Do you understand that a political poll isn't the same thing as a timed race?

Guess not.

[Bojax39]

"Is the media too poll-obsessed?"

Well DUH! :-) BUT we need an impromptu poll to make sure.... Anybody who thinks the media is "pollaxed", raise your hand.

[randomites]

Why don't we take a poll to decide this issue?

[Stopfmg]

Polls are meaningless. I feel that way even when I like the outcome. It is a real waste of time!

[Jaylah54200]

The headline of this piece is a no-brainer, isn't it?


Particularly when most of the polls are within their stated margin of error. Why would the media announce that a candidate was "leading" by 3 percentage points when the stated margin of error was +/- 4%?

Go ahead and publish the results of the polls if you think you must (although I do get tired of reading the same thing every day), but leave the spin out of it. If the poll results are within the margin of error, then report it as the candidates running "neck and neck" or whatever. And if there isn't any change between today's poll and yesterday's poll, then skip it.