How Mitt Romney's campaign strategy could set Republicans back for a decade

(The New Republic) TAMPA -- As they assemble in Tampa, the Republicans should consider not just whether they can win back the presidency in November, but whether they can create a viable majority that can endure past an election cycle. But they won't. Mitt Romney and his party are oblivious to their longer term prospects. They are committed to a strategy that may win this year, but will lead to another Democratic landslide in two or four years.

For a party out of power, the key to creating a viable majority is to pick up important groups within the opposition's coalition, and to increase the support of groups within its own coalition. In 1980, Reagan brought into the Republican party the Southern and white working class voters that had begun moving away from the Democratic party in 1966. At the same time, he retained traditional Republican support among the business and professional classes. From 1992 to 2008, Democrats picked up professionals and Northern suburbanites -- women in particular -- who had become disenchanted with the Republicans' social agenda. The Democrats also dramatically increased their vote among minorities, and particularly among Latinos. As the white working class vote has shrunk, the minority proportion of the electorate has risen, giving the Democrats a demographic advantage. This advantage is evident in a state like California, but also in states like North Carolina or Colorado that Obama won in 2008.

Special Section: Campaign 2012
Special Section: Republican Convention 2012
Can Romney move the needle with Latino voters?

What, then, could be the path to a Republican resurgence? The first thing would be to break the Democratic hold on the minority vote by winning back a reasonable share of the Hispanic vote -- say, 40 percent or more, which Republicans once got. Success in this case depends on advancing policies on immigration that win favor among Hispanics, but it also may hinge on Republicans take the side of Hispanics in a battle over scare public resources with blacks. One could see this kind of black-Hispanic division surfacing in 2005 Los Angeles mayoral election pitting James Hahn, who enjoyed black support, against Antonio Villagarosa.

George W. Bush and Karl Rove always understood the importance of the Hispanic vote to the Republican future. That accounted for Bush's support for immigration reform; his repudiation in the summer of 2000 of Republican congressional attempts to eviscerate social spending (you can't attract the Latino vote by promising to dismantle the welfare state); and by the elevation of half-Latino George P. Bush at the convention and during the campaign. Bush got about 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000 and above 40 percent in 2004, although the exact numbers are in dispute.

The second element of a Republican strategy would consist of cutting into the Democratic advantage among women and professionals. Bush and Rove were also into that. In 2000, Bush ran on a slogan of "compassionate conservatism," he kept the religious right at bay during the conventions (and in 2000, believe it or not, said he would not impose a litmus test on the appointment of Supreme Court justices) and he tried to convey through the prominence of Colin Powell at the 2000 convention a politics of tolerance and inclusion. Bush did not create a lasting majority -- the Iraq war, the Great Recession, and his unwillingness or inability, once in office, to defy the radicals in his own party doomed the Republicans in 2008 -- but his political efforts in 2000 and 2004 at least showed an understanding of what Republicans had to do to create a majority.

In 2012, the Republican presidential nominee enjoys favorable circumstances. Barack Obama remains saddled with an economic downturn; and he has been unable to clearly establish himself as the candidate of Main Street against Wall Street. But Mitt Romney could not only lose the election, but set back any attempt by the Republicans to re-position themselves as a majority party. Romney has abandoned Bush and Rove's strategy. He has taken a hard line against illegal immigration, backing measures in Arizona and other states that would stigmatize Latinos; desperate to defeat Texas Gov. Rick Perry, he even opposed Perry's attempt to provide tuition for the children of illegal immigrants. Little that Romney can do at the Republican convention will erase an impression of hard intolerance toward Hispanics. Romney will be lucky if he wins 30 percent of the Latino vote.

Bush and Rove understood that majority coalitions have never been built on strict consensus. Instead, successful coalitions are heterogeneouos. They include groups (such as Southern whites and Northern blacks during the New Deal) that don't get along with each other, but still prefer the one party coalition to the other. And a successful candidate will offend one part of the coalition (with the expectation they'll still vote for him) in order to reach out to parts of the opposing coalition. Bush could support immigration reform and pick off Hispanic votes with the expectation that he would still win white working class votes. But Romney, perhaps because he is not really a Republican conservative, has sought to be all things to all parts of the Republican base -- from the Tea Party opponents of any social spending to the nativists worried about a Mexican takeover of America to religious conservatives wanting to ban all abortions. As a result, Romney has closed off opportunities to pick off parts of the Democratic coalition.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

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[Htos1]

The dhimms are having wet dreams around here,just know this,when you come for us,as the alinskyites start a holocaust under the guise of "changing demographics" and your dear leader winks and nods,we have a 10,000 to one ratio,generally.You're gonna need a LOT of feral males from down south.

[greenlantern1]

Reagan campaigned for FDR, not Hoover!

[mtset]

Republicans can never win the Hispanic vote, with exception of Cubans, because Hispanics favor high levels of domestic spending. Amnesty for illegal aliens would simply create an even bigger underclass of Democratic voters.

[greenlantern1]

Where the Republicans when Janet Reno was enforcing our immigration laws?
Remember Elian Gonzales?

[SD92040]

After the devastating losses the Democrats suffered in the 2010 election, I'd be less worried about the Republicans and more concerned with the viability of the Democrat coalitions. If the democrats get shellacked again in November, they could have their agenda rolled back for decades.

[greenlantern1]

McCain beat Obama?
Dewey beat Truman?

[mikeonthebay]

Obama has already accused Romney of killing a guy's wife, being a felon, being a tax cheat, being a money launderer, closing factories just to abuse families, being a draft dodger, torturing a dog, and assaulting a fellow student. The Occupy Wall Street movement is the best illustration to date of what President Barack Obama's America looks like. It is an America where the lawless, unaccomplished, ignorant and incompetent rule. It is an America where those who have sacrificed nothing pillage and destroy the lives of those who have sacrificed greatly.. The left is using any event as a distraction as it pursues the Saul Alinsky tactics of community organizing. Obama's game plan is to divide the community into the Haves and the Have Nots, make the Have Nots believe they are unjustly treated by the Haves, build resentment against the American social and economic system, use church congregations to mobilize street agitators, and lobby government for higher taxes and big-spending welfare programs in order to confiscate the wealth and power of the Haves and turn it over to the Have Nots.

[el_cid2008]

You and Cntrygirl3 have radically different expectations of what results Obama's policies will produce!

[Bigheader]

Saul Alinsky champion of the "Have Not's" Been dead for 40 years.
The community of the "haves" has no responsibility to Republic that help fund their rise to economic wealth?
Take what you can and leave the scraps for the "have not's"

The Boston Tea party acted within the law?
The founding fathers or as the British know them as traitors to the empire.
The original American terrorist blowing up dams and water locks in the Owens Valley.
Our history is filled with people who have fought the established order.

I can only say wow.

[cntrygirl3]

He won't even need 4 years to do what he intends or says he intends. Within 2 years the country will be in depression as he helps the richest 1% to suck in what little wealth the 99% have remaining. With the majority of the country reduced to third world poverty status the government will continue to cut social spending eliminating medicaid and welfare. Eliminating most health and safety regulations. The benevolent rich will once again rule and those with jobs will be virtual slaves taking whatever salaries their employers choose to give them and whatever benefits if any. For the most part jobs will move overseas as will sales of the goods made there. All that will be left is service jobs to ensure the comfort of the rich. Once more the old and poor will simply die if they have no family and social intolerance will be the rule of the day. This sounds radical but remember back to the early 20th century right before the depression, this was the world of America then, before Social Security, before medicaid, before medicare, before EPA, before FDA, before OSHA. When a man was injured and he couldn't work his family starved on the street. Businesses haven't really changed that much, they worship one thing and that is money. Judging by the amount of secret donations being funneled to the Republican PACS they are pretty certain Romney can give them back that time of absolute power.

[KPeters_from_UK]

by Catch22NJ August 28, 2012 3:44 PM EDT
Why are those on the left always such drama queens?
---------------------

Seriously?

Who has screaming about Obama supposedly being a Muslim and born in Kenyan? Who refuses to compromise and has thwart every effort on Obama's part...Mitch McConnell admitted that the GOP will obstructing every effort. Who just recently said on air that Obama controls the weather reports and warnings in order to disrupt the GOP convention?

[KPeters_from_UK]

It is a bold move on Romney's part courting the Far Right but it is completely risky and I believe will eventually fail and will bring in the Democrats in 2014 or 2016. The division in the States will deepen and the political pendulum will swing far to the left.

We'll see an up turn in polls around the GOP convention and days after just as when everyone got so excited by the Palin choice. After the honeymoon period, the veil will disappear from the Far Right and the harsh truth of reality of the GOP future will begin to seep through. Not just the harsh reality but fear; real and non-real. Ryan's choice is one step too far in the heavy-handed, austere, Spartan ideology of the New Far Right GOP. Courting the Far Right of Santorum's Religious fascism is further proof.

Austere Spartan cuts hasn't worked in Greece, Spain, and France. The vulnerable, the poor, the working classes and middle classes have recently revolted against their version of Romney/Ryan thus ruining all chances for moderate compromise. Cameron's version has brought the UK back in to Recession where we are now experiencing the worst Double Dip Recession since the WWII. If they do win...mark my words...they will last one term and then someone like Hillary Clinton will win in 2016.

We understand what backlashes are all about and we will continue to experience them until the moderates come in.

[Mikexxxxxxx]

"...How Mitt Romney's campaign strategy could set Republicans back for a decade..."

TOO LATE, "W" Bush has already "been there, 'dun that" to America.

[beavertonhilton]

mission accomplished!

[Housessmart]

Both political Parties need to be held accountable for not passing the 'Legal Workforce bill' known exclusively as E-Verify (H.R.2885) or a crucial amendment known as the 'Birthright Citizenship Law' (H.R.140). The TEA PARTY however has this initiative that if they affirm more authority and influence in the Republican Party, these two laws will find passage. Join the local TEA PARTY and cast your vote for MITT ROMNEY. By infiltrating the Republican Party the TEA PARTY will have overall influence to stop illegal immigration; stop the welfare inducements for illegal aliens to fly here or slip past border agents; cut back on the freeloaders who live as parasites of the American taxpayer; open up more oil drilling areas, a fair tax code for everybody; stop Obama from allowing the United Nations from more influencing in American laws, implementing regulations that homebuyers can actually afford them; the cause of the economic recession; no more bailouts for the banks and financial institutions, who then instead of lending money to small businesses and other loans, invested it in hedge funds and other unsafe investments; Slice the federal government in half, then a third; lower the U.S. treasury 16 Trillion dollar deficit and many controversial issues such as in the Heritage foundation 2007 survey. That another mind numbing comprehensive amnesty; a certainty under President Obama and his czars would cost taxpayers $2.7 trillion to complete. This isn't about any specific group of people; it is about illegal aliens—plain and simple. 40 percent of foreigners enter America via the airlines and overstay their visas. We need more laws as Mexico where illegal entry is a felony and they know exactly whose in their country because they track you—not of course in America.

THE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT CONVENTION S ARE ALL ABOUT MONEY. THE CORRUPTION IN BOTH PARTIES; THAT'S WHY WE NEED THE TEA PARTY TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE, OTHERWISE THERE WILL NEVER BE ANY CHANGE.

I doubt whether the Republican convention or the Democratic one shortly, will cover many problems this country has? In fact every policy has been left in the dust until after the presidential election. For certain unbiased referees need to be watchful of non citizens registering or voting illegally in this momentous election. Enacting many laws under the Democrats, Liberals or Republicans will remain virtually impossible to pass. As an Independent my vote is not going to President Obama and the only reason I am voting for Mitt Romney, is to insure more TEA PARTY LEADERS unseat all those in Congress. I think potential VP Paul Ryan is a good choice, as he is yet another TEA PARTY politician? Any new laws that make financial sense have never had any possibility of enough votes in the House of Representatives and certainly not the Senate, held in contempt of the will of the people. With a steel grip in the Senate, and constantly failing to reach cloture by arch Liberal incumbent Sen. Harry Reid whatever in the way of bills of any need, will never reach the floor.