Study: 3.7M in U.S. at flood risk due to warming

Trucks travel past flooded fields in Carencro, La., March 13, 2012. Authorities declared a state of emergency in an area of southern Louisiana after floodwaters from heavy overnight thunderstorms inundated dozens of homes. / AP Photo/The Advertiser, P.C. Piazza

(AP) WASHINGTON - Global warming-fueled sea level rise over the next century could flood 3.7 million people in 544 U.S. cities temporarily, according to a new method of looking at risking of rising seas published in two scientific papers.

The cities that have the most people living within three feet of high tide — the projected sea level rise by the year 2100 made by many scientists and computer models — are in Florida, Louisiana, and New York. New York City, often not thought of as a city prone to flooding, has 141,000 people at risk, which is second only to New Orleans' 284,000. The two big Southeast Florida counties, Miami-Dade and Broward, have 312,000 people at risk combined.

"Southeast Florida is definitely the highest density of population that's really on low coastal land that's really most at risk," said lead author Ben Strauss, a scientist at Climate Central. Climate Central is a New Jersey-based group of scientists and journalists who do research about climate change.

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The studies look at people who live in homes within three feet of high tide, whereas old studies looked just at elevation above sea level, according to work published Thursday in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research and an accompanying report by Climate Central. That's an important distinction because using high tide is more accurate for flooding impacts, said study co-author Jonathan Overpeck, a scientist at the University of Arizona's Institute of the Environment. And when the new way of looking at risk is factored in, the outlook looks worse, Overpeck said.

"It's shocking to see how large the impacts could be, particularly in southern Florida and Louisiana, but much of the coastal U.S. will share in the serious pain," Overpeck said.

Sea level has already risen about 8 inches since 1880 because of warmer waters expand, Strauss said.

Sea level rise experts at the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration who weren't part of the studies said the results make sense and were done by experts in the field.

"All low elevation places in the many urban areas along the coast will become more vulnerable, like Boston, New York City, Norfolk (Va.), New Orleans, Charleston (S.C.), Miami, Washington, D.C./Alexandria (Va.)," said S. Jeffress Williams, scientist emeritus for the USGS, who wasn't part of the studies. "More people and infrastructure will be at increasing risk of flooding."

[occupy_cbs]

Hey -- how about this from one of the world's biggest skeptics?


Climate Deniers Are Giving Us Skeptics a Bad Name
February 29, 2012
S. Fred Singer

Now let me turn to the deniers. One of their favorite arguments is that the greenhouse effect does not exist at all because it violates the Second Law of Thermodynamics -- one cannot transfer energy from a cold atmosphere to a warmer surface. It is surprising that this simplistic argument is used by physicists, and even by professors who teach thermodynamics. One can show them data of downwelling infrared radiation from CO2, water vapor, and clouds, which clearly impinge on the surface. But their minds are closed to any such evidence.

Then there is another group of deniers who accept the existence of the greenhouse effect but argue about the cause and effect of the observed increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. One subgroup holds that CO2 levels were much higher in the 19th century, so there really hasn't been a long-term increase from human activities. They even believe in a conspiracy to suppress these facts. Another subgroup accepts that CO2 levels are increasing in the 20th century but claims that the source is release of dissolved CO2 from the warming ocean. In other words, they argue that oceans warm first, which then causes the CO2 increase. In fact, such a phenomenon is observed in the ice-core record, where sudden temperature increases precede increases in CO2. While this fact is a good argument against the story put forth by Al Gore, it does not apply to the 20th century: isotopic and other evidence destroys their case.

Another subgroup simply says that the concentration of atmospheric CO2 is so small that they can't see how it could possibly change global temperature. But laboratory data show that CO2 absorbs IR radiation very strongly. Another subgroup says that natural annual additions to atmospheric CO2 are many times greater than any human source; they ignore the natural sinks that have kept CO2 reasonably constant before humans started burning fossil fuels. Finally, there are the claims that major volcanic eruptions produce the equivalent of many years of human emission from fossil-fuel burning. To which I reply: OK, but show me a step increase in measured atmospheric CO2 related to a volcanic eruption.

http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=3263

[occupy_cbs]

akovi1947: "as we begin to experience Global Cooling with the Carbon Credit cycle be reversed to pay us to increase our CO2 emissions to help warm things back up?"



Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

2005 and 2010 are statistically tied as the hottest years in the surface temperature record (according to NASA GISS and NOAA NCDC, and likely according to HadCRUT4, once the update is released).

If solar cycle 24 continues to develop as expected, and and if an El Nino cycle develops as expected, and if there are no major volcanoes or other major changes in aerosol emissions, then this method projects a possible annual temperature record in 2012, and a likely record in 2013. In fact, because we can be confident that 2013 will be at or near a solar cycle peak, and we know the CO2-caused warming will continue upwards, 2013 will probably break the surface temperature record even if it's a moderate La Nina year (again, assuming there are no volcanic eruptions or other significant unaccounted-for effects).

http://www.skepticalscience.com/prediction-new-surface-temperature-record-2013.html

[sandiegopete]

Concerned about flooding? Just do what the Republicans do. Close your eyes real tight and say repeatedly "there is no such thing as climate change" and everything will be alright.

[ge556]

But now, they're getting flustered. They can't decide whether there's no climate change, whether it's getting cooler, or whether it's getting warmer but it's not our fault. They can only agree that we shouldn't try to fix it, and definitely we shouldn't put less carbon into the air.

[occupy_cbs]

"They can only agree that we shouldn't try to fix it, and definitely we shouldn't put less carbon into the air."



Yeah....too funny.....even lead denialist roy spencer is getting away from his "science" background and into BAD ECONOMICS!


Roy Spencer's Bad Economics

While they can't seem to agree about what is causing global warming (except that it must somehow mainly be something other than human CO2 emissions), the few climate scientist "skeptics" do all seem to agree on one issue - that somehow reducing greenhouse gas emissions will harm the economy. Why these climate scientists consider themselves economics experts is a mystery, but as we have frequently detailed, climate economic studies consistently show that CO2 limits will actually save money.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/roy-spencers-bad-economics.html

[occupy_cbs]

louiville35: "What a loser fraud, phony as a three dollar bill."



I agree that lord monckton should be hung for his fraudulent LIES.

All one has to do is view the YouTube video for quick verification:

Monckton proposes mining industry news ventures in Australia

Australia reacts to Lord Monckton's call for a 'Fox News' funded by 'super rich'

Campaigners warn against mining interests buying up media after Lord Monckton calls for UK and Australia to have a 'Fox News'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbteCsXc_DU

[occupy_cbs]

bugwhips: "Solar companies are dropping like flies, Europe and England are moving away from solar and wind because they are environmentally damaging and way to expensive."



Seriously, put down the crack pipe, since you're way too buggy now!

Renewables like solar and wind have DOUBLED in just the past 3 years in the U.S., and due to government-subsidized Chinese PV panels, the boom is in the U.S. PV installation industry, while the bust is in the U.S. PV manufacturing industry.

Quite ironic that anyone like you -- a fossil fuel sycophant -- can actually say that clean and green renewable energy is "environmentally damaging and way to expensive," when in fact PV prices have been plummeting and are completely environmentally-friendly -- compared to dirty and finite fossil fuels!

[occupy_cbs]

Likewise louie, you, buggy and rush limprod probably sit in the same pew at your church of religious DENIALISM every week, worshiping at the feet of BIG OIL and the rest of the fossil fuel industry!

[occupy_cbs]

bugwhips: "NASA NOAA are pseudo science"



Typical far-right extremist attacking scientists at JPL, NASA, and NOAA, while swallowing the DENIALIST BLOGS like anthony watts, and praising the delusional politician, lord monckton!

You just took the cake buggywhipped!

[occupy_cbs]

You anti-science republican extremists have been whipped into a frenzy with endless fox/rush propaganda!


Monckton proposes mining industry news ventures in Australia

Australia reacts to Lord Monckton's call for a 'Fox News' funded by 'super rich'

Campaigners warn against mining interests buying up media after Lord Monckton calls for UK and Australia to have a 'Fox News'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbteCsXc_DU

[occupy_cbs]

Monckton proposes mining industry news ventures in Australia

Australia reacts to Lord Monckton's call for a 'Fox News' funded by 'super rich'


=====
louiville35: "Typical liar who has to misrepresent someones position."
=====



Sorry bubba, but nobody had to misrepresent lord monckton's clear need to push more propaganda via new fox nooz ventures in Australia and the U.K., since all you have to do is watch the YouTube video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbteCsXc_DU

[occupy_cbs]

akovi1947: "I'm dyslexic and I thought the LEFT was supposed to promote tolerance toward those with disabilities."



I do have a great deal of tolerance towards my fellow human beings -- right, left and center -- until it crosses the line of ignorance by their need to spew anti-science political rhetoric and total denialism towards a scientific consensus among climate scientists, while supporting endless propaganda by the fossil fuel industry that continues to rape us for their record profits in order to fund stupidity!

[ge556]

akovi1947, do you agree with your source, www.iceagenow.com?
Do you believe that more snow means cooling? Have you ever lived in the North? Most of the snow comes when it's above 20 degrees F. Do you know why?

Do you believe that a glacier sliding 2600 feet in a month indicates cooling?

[ge556]

BTW, notice that the glacier slid in July. What do you suppose caused that?

[occupy_cbs]

Monckton proposes mining industry news ventures in Australia

Australia reacts to Lord Monckton's call for a 'Fox News' funded by 'super rich'

Campaigners warn against mining interests buying up media after Lord Monckton calls for UK and Australia to have a 'Fox News'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbteCsXc_DU

[occupy_cbs]

ge556: "So the deniers, who denounce all the models, are now using an overly simplistic model, and ignoring the historical data, in order to falsely claim that sea levels are not rising. And they falsely claim that Watson's paper made the claim."


Exactly!

While I try not to use blogs as sources of information like the deniers must use, in this case, this Australian blog describes exactly what happened when 'The Australian's' Stuart Rintoul, misrepresented a scientific paper by Phil Watson, Team Leader of the Coastal Unit in the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water.


Read all about ' Australian's War' on Science here:

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2011/07/the_australians_war_on_science_67.php