Newest tick of the "Doomsday Clock" awaited

The hands of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists "Doomsday Clock" / Associated Press

Humanity will soon be getting an update on how close we are to catastrophic destruction, as scientists and security experts decide whether to nudge the hands of the famous "Doomsday Clock" forward toward midnight — and doom — or back toward security and safety.

The clock, in use as a symbol of imminent apocalypse since 1947, now stands at six minutes to midnight. On Tuesday (Jan. 10), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) will announce whether they will nudge the minute hand forward or backward to reflect current trends in world security. The last time the clock hand moved was in 2010, when the group moved the hand from five minutes to midnight back to six.

In making the decision, the Bulletin considers the current state of nuclear weapons, climate change and biosecurity, along with other issues that could influence humanity's survival. The closest the clock has been to midnight has been 11:57 p.m., set in 1984 when the U.S. and the Soviet Union were in a diplomatic stand-off and tensions were high. The farthest humanity has ever been from destruction, according to the clock, was in 1991, when the Doomsday Clock stood at 17 minutes to midnight. That year, the Cold War over, the U.S. and Russia began cutting their arsenals.

The clock ticked back toward midnight at the next update in 1995, however, when hopes of total nuclear disarmament began to fade. That update set the hands at 14 minutes until midnight. In recent years, the clock has ticked closer to destruction as the Bulletin has focused on concerns about nuclear terrorism and climate change.

The 2010 shift away from doomsday was due to nuclear agreements between the U.S. and Russia and productive climate talks at Copenhagen.

The announcement of the new "doomsday time" will come at 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday. The Bulletin is expected to consider factors ranging from Iran's nuclear program to the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster to the state of policy on climate change.

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[gruven13777]

If "Doomsday" happens tomorrow, what good will this clock do us?

[displeased2]

Perhaps it's because the reasons for their so-called doomsday are preventable.

[swami96b]

So what they're saying is, we've been more or less within 15 minutes of the apocalypse since 1947?

Well, they're scientists, right? Let's test the theory.
More than 2,250,000 fifteen minute periods have elapsed since the clock began counting. Now let me count the number of apocalypses... ah... 0.

Pretty poor performance! Even if we do get one, the best we can say is "the clock was correct 1 time out of 2,250,000 ". You'd think, being scientists, they'd toss in a little Bayesian analysis and observe that the probability of reaching "midnight" within the next six minutes is laughably low.

[Scimajor]

It surprises me that these scientists would be promote something that is, by its nature, not quantifiable. The time on the clock is almost entirely arbitrary. I can only assume that it is a lame attempt to "dumb down" the information for the general public.

[displeased2]

It's just a method of notifying the general public how close we are to destroying our own civilization. Of course, making that prediction is subjective, but the reasons for that prediction are derived from scientific studies.

[enlightenu]

that's why it's a clock, a simplified graphic that doesn't even show any numbers

[LordNatonstan]

I agree it's almost definitely going to move forward, we're in a much more fragile state now with all the disasters of last year and the tensions with Iran

[Raptorsmasher]

The doomsday clock will likely go backwards. Natural disasters are a not part of the calculation, and Iran, despite conservative belief, is not the military threat they would like it to be.

[rightbehind]

The world is a very dangerous place now because technology vital to US national security was allowed to leave US borders to line the pockets of free trade neocon republicans. If you wanted to destroy a planet level the playing field.