Childhood obesity calculator may be most accurate predictor yet
Researchers say they can predict a newborn baby's odds of becoming an obese child using a simple new calculation.
The new formula factors in six easily-available pieces of information: a child's birth weight, body mass index measurements of its parents, the number of people in the household, what type of occupation the mother has and whether or not she smoked while pregnant.
"This test takes very little time, it doesn't require any lab tests and it doesn't cost anything," study author Dr. Philippe Froguel, a professor from the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, said in a press release.
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In a new study, the researchers derived the formula using data from a study that tracked 4,000 children born in Finland since 1986. At first the researchers were trying to develop a more complex formula looked for mutations in the children's genetic profiles, but they failed to make accurate predictions.
However, once they used data that was readily available at the child's birth to create the formula, the researchers found the 20 percent of children predicted to have the highest risk of obesity at birth made up about 80 percent of the obese children in the study pool.
"Once a young child becomes obese, it's difficult for them to lose weight, so prevention is the best strategy, and it has to begin as early as possible," said Froguel. "Unfortunately, public prevention campaigns have been rather ineffective at preventing obesity in school-age children. Teaching parents about the dangers of over-feeding and bad nutritional habits at a young age would be much more effective."
While the researchers were unable to accurately predict child obesity risk using a formula based on genetic variations, they say about one in 10 cases of obesity are caused by rare mutations that disrupt appetite regulation.
Their findings were published Nov. 28 in PLoS One.
Childhood obesity is a leading cause of early type 2 diabetes and heart and circulatory disease worldwide in developed countries. Among U.S. children, obesity rates have tripled over the past 30 years, with more than one-third of American kids and adolescents currently overweight or obese.
Parental obesity, smoking during pregnancy and socioeconomic status are already known risk factors for childhood obesity. Other risk factors include high-calorie diet, lack of exercise and psychological issues that may lead a child to overeat to cope, according to The Mayo Clinic.
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Professor Paul Gately, a childhood obesity specialist at Leeds Metropolitan University in the U.K., told the BBC the calculator may help lead to a more focused warning about obesity risks.
"We've done a great job of outlining that obesity is a serious issue but we have made the general public paranoid that everyone is at risk," said Gately, who was not involved in the research. "Tools like this will help change that attitude. Once we use the tool, we need intervention programs for children at a greater risk."
"That calculation would have an 80 percent chance of being right so it really does a good job," adds Dr. Jonathan Fanaroff, an associate professor of pediatrics at University Hospitals Case Medical Center of Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, to CBS Philadelphia. "Maybe this calculator will get some families who might otherwise not take a healthy lifestyle seriously to take it more seriously."
The childhood obesity calculator from the study is also available online.
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The FDA has poisoned the people for profit$$$. The Government has allowed the food to be altered from its natural state and it has caused illnesses.This is the same way that big tobacco hid the danger of cigarettes from smokers in the past.See here on Soda
Use a Specialized diabetes Diet and the FAT melts off
Just google SPIRIT HAPPY DIET
Perhaps someday someone will teach these researchers how to run statistics with continuous variables and design research methods accordingly. Perhaps they'll learn how to temper their conclusions based on limitations to the rigor of the research methods (though that might stop them from rushing press releases to ignorant journalists every time they find a hypothesis that fits archival data... and what fun would that be?). E.g., why not publish the percentage of adult body fat for which the formula accounts (let alone a confidence interval for the effect)? Were the predictions for adult obesity also dichotomous (i.e., obese vs. not obese)? Why rush for publicity over 1 archival study with dichotomized variables and amateurish analyses that barely offers prediction (in 1 historical setting), but does nothing to explain the underlying processes? Is it responsible to leave people to assume the processes and test out their random hypotheses on kids?
How do people this bad at research get funding? No wonder the general public is so confused about health-related issues.
Then they can be weeded out by employers and health insurance companies and rejected. Their parents should also be convicted of misdemeanors if they fail to follow the diet prescribed by the hospital when they go home. And when they go to school, they should continue their special diets and be separated from the normal kids. By then any vending machines containing dangerous foods and drinks will have been eliminated. Stores will have to monitor their food purchases and put the info into a government data base. Actually, everyone's food purchases should be monitored so they only eat healthy foods. Since what is healthy changes constantly maybe just give them a list as they enter the store of food choices that are available. Cigarettes, liquor have to be outlawed as we can't discriminate against just one group. Genes for predicting smoking addicts and alcoholics, if present, should all be in our medical file. Poor people who can't afford the "right" foods will just have to have their babies taken from them and put in homes where it can be provided. It's for the good of everyone, the fashion industry, teenager girls offended by fat girls, mothers embarrassed by their fat kids, and mostly for taxpayers who won't have to support the medical care for these poor losers. I think governor Christie should just hang his head in shame and depart from the public spotlight. Maybe he could be replaced by someone who looks better and won't embarrass our country by being a fat pig. Anyway, good work. Maybe a permanent tattoo also just to make sure everyone knows you are going to be fat when you grow up. And instead of December 21 being the end of the world, well a free world, it's a simple thing, starting with branding people who won't look good in tights when they grow up.