Unrest in Egypt, after Gaza Crisis: Obama's choices in the Middle East

U.S. President Barack Obama smiles as he leaves the 7th East Asia Summit in Phnom-Penh on November 20, 2012. Mr. Obama was set to defy Beijing's protests and use the summit to raise concerns over South China Sea rows that have sent diplomatic and trade shockwaves across the region. / CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP/Getty Images

All sides involved in this month's Gaza crisis face an array of choices. Israeli generals and politicians have chosen to declare victory -- saying that they have "restored deterrence," basically meaning that Israel's Arab neighbors have again seen the might of the Israeli military so they will hesitate to start large armed conflicts.

The Palestinian Hamas faction is insisting that it was victorious. It withstood eight days of pounding by the Israeli military (as a response to many months of rocket fire from the Gaza side), and in the ceasefire talks hosted by Egypt, Hamas was able to act as though it was the equal of any other party involved.

True, Israel and the United States still refuse to speak directly with Hamas, labeling it as a terrorist organization. But no truce could be arranged without the mediators turning to Hamas, again and again, for agreement.

Within days, the chief mediator -- Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi -- shocked the region by declaring, in effect, that he is above the law. Morsi claims to be the supreme protector of the "revolution" that deposed the pro-American president, Hosni Mubarak, last year.

• Egypt reformist warns of Morsi decree turmoil
• Israel eases Gaza border restrictions after truce

Confronted with this set of new facts -- and a host of older facts, such as Iran's nuclear program, which President Obama has warned must not produce nuclear weapons -- the American president could choose to be highly active, or to stand back for a while and let the Middle East simmer.

The problem is that the Mideast, left practically unwatched to simmer, tends to boil over.

So far, because the United States is so pleased that Morsi mediated successfully between Israel and Hamas, Washington is giving Morsi a fairly easy time. In the first Obama administration comment on the apparent power grab in Cairo, the State Department meekly said that it raises "concerns" because "the revolution" was supposed to mean that no one man will ever again wield too much authority in Egypt.

But, beyond that, the U.S. only urged that everyone keep calm -- and perhaps move toward writing a constitution that would protect the civil rights of Egyptians.

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Mr. Obama may decide to be more ambitious in the Middle East, but at the least he will probably wait until after the Israeli election on January 22 before launching any major initiative. He had a special envoy for peace in the Middle East for a few years, former Sen. George Mitchell, but Mitchell quit after finding that he could not make much headway in keeping Israelis and Palestinians at the negotiating table.

In the Gaza talks, however, Mr. Obama demonstrated the unique role of the U.S. by sending Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to push the talk forward in Jerusalem, Ramallah (in the West Bank), and Cairo. She was able to preside over the announcement of a cease-fire on Wednesday in the Egyptian capital, where she spoke of a need "to consolidate the progress" and improve the lives of Israelis and Palestinians.

As well as trying to help Israeli and Palestinians negotiate -- defying strong skepticism on all sides -- Mr. Obama could pursue a wider goal of creating a pro-peace, pro-stability coalition in the Middle East. Sunni Muslim nations that opposed the growing influence of Iran, a Shiite Muslim country, could take part -- notably Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

In Turkey, there is the challenge that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been saying hostile things about Israel. But for many years, often kept hush-hush, Turkey and Israel had strong military and intelligence cooperation. They have many shared concerns -- including what will emerge from the instability and deaths in Syria, the Arab country that is sandwiched between them.

Western diplomats note that, during the recent Gaza truce talks, the heads of Turkish and Israeli intelligence were both in Cairo.

Mr. Obama could help a new push for a pro-stability regional coalition by mediating an end to the bitter argument over the killing by Israeli troops of nine people on a Turkish aid ship that was heading for Gaza in 2010. Israeli officials say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did recently come close to issuing an apology to Turkey.

[eroteme2]

Big decision for Obama whether to become involved or stand back. I think standing back would be the best, this way he could spend more time on the golf courses and his basketballing, he may be overdue for a vacation. He should not have to spend his time campaigning now but this he likes to do, perhaps he can campaign for his fellow Democrat congressional people. He is a good standbacker.

[askagain]

Ulgnud - Agreed. One step further, the United States should give Israel a free hand to take care of the problem.

[AOCGUY]

Just in case I missed the change I did some quick research to determine what land masses were considered part of the United States. As it turns out I was correct, neither Israel, Gaza, Syria, nor Egypt fall under the United States. I also noted that not one of those countries shared a border withe the US nor do any of those countries produce any oil that is sold in the US. I fact I can't fid a single thing that any of those countries do to contribute the the wealth or security of the United States.

[judymar14]

Why should it have to concern the US? Leave them be and if they want to kill each other, go for it. I'm sure Isreal will come out on top. Another four years of Obama flying around the world meeting with leaders of countries who hate us. Obama needs to stay home to deal with what is going on here. Michelle is noted for her vacations, and the children have seen more of the world that any other First Children. Whether the Obama's pay for these trips or not, it still cost tax payers millions for security.

[nygurl1]

Lordy - you sure are bigoted!
TRY FACTS!

[sandiegopete]

The United States does have a difficult row to hoe with regard to the middle east. On one side we have radical right wing fundamental Islamists in control of Gaza and on the other we have radical Jewish fundamentalists in control of Israel. Neither side will give an inch and eventually there will be massive distruction in the middle east because each side would rather die than give an inch to the other side.

The United States really needs to find and develop alternatives to petroleum as a primary energy source. The nut cases on both sides will eventually destroy access to the petroleum reserves in the middle east. And, it appears that will happen sooner rather than later.

For those that may claim the U.S. can attain petroleum self-sufficiency I remind them that U.S. petroleum is sold on the world market and when the middle east petroleum is no longer available China, India and the EU will bid up the price of U.S. petroleum.

[Ulgnud]

If the sequence of events escalate as you suspect, U.S. oil can be declared as a national resource and kept at home for reasonable prices. Failing that an incredibly high export tariff could be imposed. There is no reason we should have to bid against the world for us to enjoy our own resources.

[essam0001]

Mr. esteemed director of the International Monetary Fund
Greetings and after
I like to inform you that what is being fabricated of events within Egyptian territory and that security Thikha views and Astbartah order control in stock prices in order to reap profits in the form of systematic fraud hidden under the leadership of fun and is the Antichrist, who warned him all divine religions and whose real name is Mohammed Abdel Fattah Abdel Hamid agent and is Powered national security and all those strong existing field hatched them that game for that matter, and evidence of this when the demonstrators to go to the Abbasid headquarters of the armed forces have been dealt with firmly and dimensions of the demonstrators, but What happens Mohamed Mahmoud Street and these demonstrations, which lasted five days leave the government in order to reap profits Almttsmaren who sell under those concerns and is a type of systematic fraud under the care of security

[samXXkiley]

coucou,
this is a second chance for Obama to prove to the Americans that they made the right choice. The world also awaits, especially the Syrian and Palestinian peoples.
"au revoir"

[Ulgnud]

Don't hold your breath. Despite all Obama's blathering about Israeli support, they have already publicly mentioned the Obama administration is the most hostile to Israels interests yet. That story vanished quickly too.

[waldopal]

Under Clinton the US attempted to negotiate a peace between Israel and Palestine but under Bush, the US used force to further Israel's interest by invading Iraq and other actions. Obama started by saying the US would be more equal between Israel and Palestine but his actions were pro-Israel. The failure of the peace talks were the US opportunity to back out of the conflict but Omama refused to take it. As long as the US backs the right-wing government in Israel, Israel will continue its current path of force to subjugate the Palestinians. The US should abstain from Palestinians UN bid to make Israel face reality.

[Ulgnud]

The Palestinians created a problem for themselves by electing terrorists to their government. They started shooting first. For several months. Israel finally got fed up and popped them. Shooting at people will never win negotiating points. Make Palestine in Gaza a nation? Then there is a genuine nation state instead of a few terrorists to declare war against when they start shooting against. I doubt the regular Palestinians truly want that.

[eroteme2]

'The president could choose to stand back for a while'. The president stood back for his first four years with regard to foreign affairs why shouldn't he stand back for the next four.

[Ulgnud]

Works for me. Then he is less likely to gaff things up even worse.

[usunus]

The analysis is dead wrong.The situation does not allow the president to be " highly active ".He can only lie low and let things take their own course like in post-Gaddafi Libya.There are,as he said famously,bound to be bumps in the road.Morsi is a huge bump,till date !