Analysis: Success of Mideast cease-fire demands patience and forward-looking approach rare in the region

A Palestinian baby wears a Hamas bandana during a rally to celebrate the Israel-Hamas cease-fire in the Jebaliya refugee camp, north Gaza Strip, Nov. 22, 2012. / AP

TEL AVIV Making the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas actually work -- and last -- may be a task that requires the wisdom of Solomon and the patience of Job.

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Israel, Gaza cease-fire holds overnight

The agreement is based on deep mutual mistrust, carries no signatures, and comes with warnings from both sides that their fingers remain on the trigger.

History teaches us that it won't likely hold forever. All that has been achieved, for certain, is "quiet for quiet." However, if both sides can manage to act in their own best self-interest and exercise political maturity and restraint, keeping their eyes on the long-term, it could actually turn out to be a win-win, and something to build on.

• U.S. skeptical of Mideast cease-fire prospects
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• Fragile Mideast cease-fire takes hold

Hamas' new standing

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Israel, Hamas air strikes leave deadly aftermath

Israel claims to have "crippled Hamas's military power" with eight days of missile strikes on the Palestinian territory. It's worth noting, however, that pretty much the same boast was made after the 2009 invasion of Gaza. If the truce is to hold, that boast had best not be true this time, either.

Israel signed the cease-fire deal on the tacit understanding that Hamas will control the even more militant factions inside the Gaza Strip.

Islamic Jihad -- which Iran says it has supplied with technology to make the rockets that have now, for the first time, made it to the outskirts of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem -- crowed that it used only a fraction of its capabilities and arsenal. The group also says it remains committed to what it terms, "the path of Jihad and resistance."

Hamas' own charter is based in part on the Quixotic aim of destroying the state of Israel. The new realities demonstrated by the negotiations which led to the cease-fire have shown, however, that the organization would be wise to leave that particular goal in the fine print for now.

As well-known commentator Chemi Shalev wrote in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz: "Hamas may not be interested in peace, but it could be capable, if it wishes, of delivering long-term security arrangements, which, contrary to peace, might possibly be attainable as well."

No militant movement can hope to beat Israel militarily. According to the latest figures available (2009), Israel's military expenditure was about ?10 billion -- about $3 billion of which came in the form of military assistance from Washington. That is greater than the combined defense spending of its immediate neighbors Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon combined.

Hamas has emerged with an enhanced status in the Arab world. Maintaining it means finding new best friends.

Alliances old and new

Syria used to be the loudest Arab voice in support of Hamas. The cacophony of the discordant disintegration of the Assad regime has reduced that to a barely audible squeak.

• Noose of war tightens on Syria's capital

Hamas must also be seen to be distancing itself from Iran, if it wants help proving its legitimacy in the region.

Qatar, the only Arab country willing to pour much need investment money into the Gaza Strip's moribund economy, has as much interest in seeing Iran's influence reduced as Israel does.

As a key architect and de-facto guarantor of the cease-fire, Egypt has everything to win and a lot to lose of it goes wrong. With aspirations to re-emerge as the leading light in the Sunni Arab world, Cairo has reason to grasp every opportunity to curtail Shiite influence -- which Iran epitomizes. The Gaza deal would seem to have put Egypt on the fast-track.

• Egypt emerges as a major Mideast power broker

Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speak in Cairo, Nov. 21, 2012.

/ Getty

Announcing the cease-fire alongside Egyptian Foreign Minister in Cairo, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton praised the Egyptian government for "assuming the responsibility and leadership that has long made this country a cornerstone of regional stability and peace."

Minutes before the truce came into effect, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he wanted "to express my appreciation for the efforts of Egypt to obtain a cease-fire."

Tomorrow's landscape

The jitters Mohammed Morsi's election to the Egyptian presidency sent through Israel may have been calmed for now, but they're being replaced by equally vexing, and perhaps harder to resolve issues.

To undercut the influence of the more radical factions in Gaza, Hamas must deliver not only peaceful skies, but economic prospects for its impoverished subjects.

It's a tall order, but if Hamas manages to pull it off, the combination of having been seen to force Israel to make a deal and improved economic conditions could add to its status and enhance the group's chances of overshadowing Fatah, which runs the West Bank, and which the Israelis see as the only "reasonable" Palestinian faction.

Hamas could end up superseding them, leaving Israel, and its backers, with a dilemma of almost biblical proportions.

Religion is often cited as being an integral part of the problems of the Middle East, especially the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

This time, however it might help if both Hamas and Israel looked to their sacred texts. Both the Jewish Torah and the Muslim Quran recognize Solomon and Job as prophets.

[FP1970]

Note to Israel: Don't fall for phony ceasefires, kill as many Hamas cockroaches as you can.

Note to Americans: Every Islamist fighter, politician or sympathizer that gets killed is one less that can immigrate to America and try to impose Shariah law.

[signseeker1717]

Worrying about imposition of Sharia law in the US is paranoiac concern over a non-existent problem, no matter WHO comes here; it's like being afraid you'll be attacked by alligators in Antarctica.

The US Constitution and those of all 50 states make it illegal to implement ANY religious canon - Islamic law, Jewish law, ancient Egyptian law - whatever. Any attempt would be found unconstitutional, even IF there was an appetite for it. Silly and antiquated Blue Laws, the closer thing we had, have systematically been struck down. By the same token, it is ALSO unconstitutional to establish law a AGAINST a religion; just ask Oklahoma.

[Rick_Carter1]

The only hope for a permanent lasting peace in the Middle East is for the U.N. to finally give the Palestinian people their fair share of the overall Palestine region, so they can have an autonomous homeland which they can call their own. This means an equitable re-partition (i.e., re-division) of the overall Palestine territory between the Jordanians, the Palestinians and the Israelis, which also includes secure (i.e., defensible) borders for all parties concerned. Without this kind of territorial justice, there can NEVER be any lasting peace in the Middle East, in which case this war torn region of our world will be destined to become the future trigger for a global conflagration (apocalypse) which can eventually swallow up all of mankind here on Earth. PLEASE DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN, U.N. !!! - Rick Carter

[Rick_Carter1]

(I did my very best, FGPs !!!) - RC

[signseeker1717]

This is basically the Two State Solution, which many countries, including the US, have long advocated. Israel must agree however, and has steadfastly refused thus far.

[wordsarejustpuffsofair]

they want their land back? sounds like a matter for civil court. or maybe they can buy it on the open market. stupidest thing in the world to kill and die for "land"

[wordsarejustpuffsofair]

Bib did the right thing. There'll be time enough for war if necessary. Better to act with restraint from a position of strength and always leave the door to peace open. I imagine if the rockets start flying into Israeli territory again, there'll be little holding him back.

[maltedmilkballs]

This has to be the biggest waste of a news story. If Hamas can do this or that or, if Israel will do this or that.
Bottom line, again just read the charter of Hamas.
So, now back to business as normal. Our silly government will give "aide" to Egypt and the people of Gaza.
For peace to be in this area, two things must happen at the same time. Palistine to have its own country (p.s. never has been a country of palistine in the past) and for the world to kill off hamas, i.e.....the brotherhood.

[samXXkiley]

coucou,
Israel have understood that the policy of repression and threats they kept for years on the Palestinian people, is useless. This climate of permanent tension can not last forever. A just and lasting solution is needed more than ever.
"au revoir"