US officials: Core al Qaeda 'essentially gone'

This image from video provided by the SITE Intel Group purports to show al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri in a web posting by al-Qaida's media arm, as-Sahab, Feb. 12, 2012. / SITE Intel Group/AP Photo

(AP) WASHINGTON - A year after the Navy SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden, the al Qaeda that carried out the Sept. 11 attacks is essentially gone but its affiliates remain a threat to America, U.S. intelligence officials say.

Core al Qaeda's new leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, still aspires to attack the U.S., but his Pakistan-based group is scrambling to survive, under fire from CIA drone strikes and laying low for fear of another U.S. raid. That has lessened the threat of another complex attack like a nuclear dirty bomb or a biological weapon, intelligence officials say.

Al Qaeda's loyal offshoots are still dangerous, especially Yemen's al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP. While not yet able to carry out complex attacks inside the U.S., such groups are capable of hitting Western targets overseas and are building armies and expertise while plotting violence, according to senior U.S. counterterrorism officials who briefed reporters Friday.

"Each will seek opportunities to strike Western interests in its operating area, but each group will have different intent and ability to execute those plans," said Robert Cardillo, a deputy director at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The other officials were authorized to speak only on condition of anonymity.

The shift from a single, deadly group to a more amorphous threat may not seem much of an improvement. But the U.S. believes that the bin Laden raid and continued U.S. counterterrorist action have reduced the chance of a sophisticated, multipronged attack on the U.S. like the attacks of Sept. 11 or the deadly bombings in Madrid in 2004 and in London in 2005.

An attack with chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by any al Qaeda-related terror group also seems less likely in the coming year, Cardillo said.

Al Qaeda's Zawahri has not managed to harness multiple groups into a cohesive force focused on a single, catastrophic attack, officials said.

Al Qaeda's key affiliates in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq and North Africa have pledged allegiance to Zawahri but, unimpressed with his leadership, "have not offered the deference they gave bin Laden," Cardillo said. Zawahri has a reputation as an abrasive manager and a less than charismatic speaker.

That loss of a single, charismatic voice likely means "multiple voices will provide inspiration for the movement," leading to a bout of soul-searching as to what the splinter groups want to target and why, Cardillo said.

"There will be a vigorous debate about local versus global jihad within and among terror organizations," he said.

Another potentially positive sign is al Qaeda's failure to hijack the Arab Spring revolt in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya. On the negative side, the officials said, al Qaeda is working hard to co-opt rebels in Syria.

If the political wrangling in any of the post-revolt nations fails to produce stable, responsive governments, al Qaeda and its ilk may be able to seize the void, the officials said.

That's what has occurred in Yemen, where AQAP has taken full advantage of the local government's preoccupation fighting multiple political opponents. AQAP has grown in size and territory covered despite constant and expanded targeting by Yemeni and U.S. counterterrorist forces, the officials said.

Another threat cited by the officials: Homegrown extremists, either lone actors or small groups inspired by al Qaeda, who remain intent on committing violence.

The officials also noted that every time U.S. counterterrorist forces strike, they must take care to avoid everything from civilian casualties to hitting the wrong target, lest the blowback produce more enemies.

"The key challenge will be balancing aggressive counterterrorism operations, with the risk of exacerbating the anti-Western global agenda" of al Qaeda and its affiliates, Cardillo said.

[robert1129]

Then what the heck are we doing still in Afghan???

[Bullricky]

What a nice "official" report. Here's a Minority Report:
Bin Laden is dead. After five years of living in retired seclusion with his four wives and numerous children, he was killed by a Seal Team. The super secret helicopter that crashed in the courtyard wasn't destroyed, but sold to China by an irate Pakistan. They were upset because they failed in securing Osama's safety. As retaliation, they closed all land routes to Afghanistan for coalition forces, blew up a convoy en route, set a trap that killed 11 Seal Team members, closed the drone airstrip in Pakistan and now actively assists Iran in acquiring nuclear weapons and launch vehicles. Net effect: Negative. Anybody want a "reset" on this?
Armed conflicts strictly limited to Afghanistan and Iraq have now spread to Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Bahrain, and Nigeria' Boko Haram, to name just a few. The "Arab Spring" has put radical Islamists in charge in Libya, Tunisia, and soon in Egypt, among others. Islamic immigrants to France, England, Germany and other Western European countries have become more vocal and militant. An ancient and once discredited form of Sharia law--anti-women, anti-Western and anti-jewish--is now a predominant form of Islam, and growing.
Does this look like the threat is "essentially gone"?

[aintfakin]

sounds like you are a threat to yourself

[Bojax39]

"US officials: Core al Qaeda 'essentially gone'"

"Essentially" is not good enough. Don't pester the American people until you can report that they are wiped off the earth.

[sdemaggie]

So why are we still removing our shoes at airports? Why are we patting down 4 year olds at airports? Why are we deploying psuedo science machines to "sniff" for explosives? One department that's time is over is homeland security.

After considering the amount of economic resources wasted on this department my conclusion is this rinky dink organization has done more harm to our economy and infringed on the Bill of Rights more then the cold war.

[hypnotoad72]

So no more #2s being flushed, I mean killed?

[hypnotoad72]

But while it's a good thing their threat is increasingly diminished, does this mean we'll finally be able to get out of the middle east and have our troops guarding the streets here in case fringe pockets of them come out at night?

[StephenKriz]

Al-Qaeda was never an existential threat to the United States. They are a useful bogeyman to keep ignorant, gullible Americans afraid while the Pentagon rapes the American taxpayer and defense contractors get rich at the same time. While the U.S. squandered $2 trillion+ on a fictional "war on terror", other countries like Brazil and China were building and improving infrastructure, investing in education and positioning themselves to be more competitive in the 21st Century. It's a pity we are so easily duped.

[Lerianis4]

Agreed. It's also a way to make us give up our right to not be patted down at the airports and treated like potential criminals every time we want to fly.

[jonnyooh]

I've heard rumors that al Zawahri is in love with his sleep-in nanny goat. Does anyone know if this is true?

[robert1129]

Not true. The nanny goat has better taste.

[rwsmith29456]

Now that they've announced this there will be a spate of attacks to prove Al Qaida there will be a spate of attacks.

[rwsmith29456]

Sorry, that is to prove Al Qaida is still strong.

[Bulldozer-Shaz]

Delusional wishful thinking Satan...

[hypnotoad72]

Says you

[Molly-Pchr]

But we're on a heightened alert with the approach of the "anniversary" of the death of Bin Laden.