U.S. confident of peace talks with Taliban

Taliban fighters look on after they joined Afghan government forces during a ceremony in Herat on January 5, 2012. / Aref Karimi/AFP/Getty Images

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is expressing new confidence that talks with the Taliban next week offer the best chance yet to end the 10-year-old war in Afghanistan.

But the intelligence community warns that the Taliban is more interested in continuing fighting than making peace.

To guard against the Taliban using the talks to boost its standing while delivering little in return, the U.S. this week will lay out confidence-building measures — or specific steps that the U.S. and the insurgents agree to take ahead of formal talks.

A senior U.S. official said those talks, if they ever take place, would include the United States, the Taliban and the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive diplomacy.

Several current and former U.S. officials said the most substantive give-and-take to date between U.S. and Taliban negotiators could happen in the next week, with the goal of establishing what the U.S. calls confidence-building measures — specific steps that the U.S. and the insurgents agree to take ahead of formal talks. Those talks, if they ever take place, would include the United States, the Taliban and the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai, a senior U.S. official said.

Like others interviewed, the official spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive diplomacy. Elements of the U.S. outreach to the Taliban are also classified.

The diplomatic, military and intelligence branches of the U.S. government differ over the value of talks with the Taliban or whether now is the right time to so publicly shift focus away from the ongoing military campaign that primarily targets Taliban insurgents. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and some uniformed military leaders have recently sounded some of the strongest notes of caution, especially on when to grant Taliban requests for the transfer of several of its prisoners from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, military and other U.S. officials said.

The latest Afghan National Intelligence Estimate warns that the Taliban will grow stronger, using the talks to gain credibility and run out the clock until U.S. troops leave Afghanistan, while continuing to fight for more territory, say U.S. officials who have read the classified document. They spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the roughly 100-page review, an amalgam of intelligence community's predictions of possible scenarios for the Afghan war through the planned end to U.S. combat in 2014.

It says the Afghan government has largely failed to prove itself to its people and will likely continue to weaken and find influence only in the cities. It predicts that the Taliban and warlords will largely control the countryside.

Meanwhile, Karzai is still uneasy with the pace and direction of talks. He resents the selection of the Gulf state of Qatar as the site of a Taliban political office, although he has reluctantly agreed to that U.S.-backed plan. And he worries that the United States will strike a deal with the Taliban and force that deal on his government, two Afghan officials told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive discussions. Karzai wanted the office located in Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Afghanistan.

U.S. officials close to the negotiations say that despite these warnings the Taliban high command is more ready for talks than in the past, at least with the United States if not the elected Afghan government it opposes.

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[raymailhot]

If president Obama plays his cards right not only will the taliban be in control of Afghanistan but they will rule Pakistan too!

[nancy_naive]

Peace With Honor!

Okay boys, pack up let's go home.

Headlines Le Monde: "US Takes Retreat Lead from France!"

[Devlyn13]

the US is confident who is this US person I know it is not me or some of the people here who have commented . The taliban is the worse of the worse killing more women and girls then they do of men . You expect me to be confident LOL .If the packis and the afganis want to climb in bed with the taliban so be it , But we need to just walk away and wash our hands of it . They will all kill each other anyways . Just keep them out of America. Not to mention our wonderfull goverment has gave them billians of dollars putting our economy in the toilet. I am sick of these people we need to get our country back on track and stop worrying about those inbred corrupt thugs .

[nancy_naive]

War is no means to Peace. Peace is not an end; it is a means.

[WildBill935]

Karazi is much the President as was Theiu of Vietnam, both just as crooked and full of lies and deception. So if you can't find truth with the side you backed deal with those whose lying you know the best and that you can rely on. So is the political arena of the world. What crap, how disgusting, but maybe its all we ever had.

[mjlewis6]

Likely, the contacts are meeting regularly in Qatar and making headway for a legitimate negotiating team of Taliban representatives for peace talks. Obviously, Pakistan is NOT going to be a meeting site even as most of the Taliban leadership is there, subject to Pakistani pressure.

Peace in Afghanistan is not in the interest of Pakistan, as threatened violence is always a measure of reciprocal pressure to obtain American Funding for economic growth/military assistance and 'stability.'

[jd2408]

Wow, take a good look at the picture of the Taliban fighters. I watched a discussion on Afghanistan. The average education level there is 2nd grade. They have a fighting "season". That's when they are not working in their drug fields they have time to go fight. This is just insane and ridicules. Get out of that country now and leave them to their landlords which they have had forever.