Study: U.S. marijuana legalization would hurt Mexican cartels
A Mexican soldier pulls up a marijuana plant found amid a field of blue agave - the plant used for the production of tequila - in a field at El Llano, Hostotipaquillo, Jalisco State, Mexico on September 27, 2012. / Getty Images
MEXICO CITY A study released Wednesday by a respected Mexican think tank contends that proposals to legalize the recreational use of marijuana in Colorado, Oregon and Washington could cut Mexican drug cartels' earnings from traffic to the U.S. by as much as 30 percent.
Opponents questioned some of the study's assumptions, saying the proposals could also offer new opportunities for cartels to operate inside the U.S. and replace any profit lost to a drop in international smuggling.
Medical Marijuana: Will Colorado's "green rush" last?
The ballot measures to be decided on Nov. 6 would allow adults to possess small amounts of pot under a regimen of state regulation and taxation. Polls have shown tight races in Washington and Colorado, with Washington's measure appearing to have the best chance of passing. Oregon's measure, which would impose the fewest regulations, does not appear likely to pass.
The study by the Mexican Competitiveness Institute, "If Our Neighbors Legalize," assumes that legalization in any state would allow growers there to produce marijuana relatively cheaply and create an illicit flow to other states, where the drug could be made available at cheaper prices and higher quality than Mexican marijuana smuggled across the international border.
The report, based on previous studies by U.S. experts including those at the RAND Corporation, assumes that Mexican cartels earn more than $6 billion a year from drug smuggling to the U.S.
It calculates the hypothetical, post-legalization price of marijuana produced in Oregon, Washington and Colorado and sold within those states and smuggled to other states. It then assumes that purchasers around the U.S. will choose domestic marijuana when it is sold cheaper than the current price of Mexican marijuana. That choice will lead to a loss of $1.425 billion to the cartels if Colorado legalizes, $1.372 billion if Washington approves the ballot measure, and $1.839 billion if Oregon votes yes, the study says.
It only looks at the effects of legalization in individual states, and does not calculate what would happen if more than one legalized marijuana.
- Watch: Marijuana industry's banking blues
- Federal court considers marijuana classification
- Colo. bid to legalize marijuana leads in polls
Opponents of the ballot measures said the study bolsters one of their principal objections, that it will turn any state with legal marijuana into a producer for the rest of the country.
They said, however, that they did not believe that production will rob the cartels of significant profits, saying instead that they thought Mexican drug lords would instead try to participate in legal production inside the U.S.
"If I were a cartel member and I knew Colorado and Washington had it legal, I'd get a couple front people and do my business out of those states. Why would I not?" said Thomas J. Gorman, head of the Rocky Mountain High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area, a government agency that coordinates anti-drug efforts by local, state and federal agencies in four Western states.
The Mexican government has said that drug legalization in some U.S. states could make it harder to prosecute growers and dealers in Mexico, because they would be producing a product potentially destined for a place where it is legal.
Alejandro Hope, an author of the study and a former high-ranking officer in Mexico's domestic intelligence service, acknowledged that the study made a series of assumptions that may not be prove to be true, including the assumption that the U.S. federal government would not aggressively investigate and prosecute movement of marijuana out of a state where it's legal.
A post-legalization federal crackdown could make domestically grown marijuana uncompetitive with Mexican pot in many states, he said, meaning cartels would see less of a cut in profits.
"Diversion is a problem we'll continue to have to monitor," said Alison Holcomb, campaign manager with New Approach Washington, the group pushing Washington state's legalization measure. "But the question is to the extent that is happening, is it better that the money is going to licensed, regulated businesses instead of going to Mexico?"
A RAND study of a proposal to legalize marijuana in California in 2010 asserted that could cut cartel drug income by 20 percent.
Popular on CBSNews.com
- O.J. Simpson's ex-lawyer contradicts his testimony on guns 34 Comments
- Dozens injured as commuter trains collide in Conn.
- Seven-time lottery winner shares secret to winning Powerball
- Navy pilot earns degree in combat zone
- Why marry? Three generations tell their wedding stories
- Tornadoes rip through northern Texas 17 Photos
- Jail logs: Cleveland suspect Ariel Castro polite to guard
- Powerball jackpot at $600 million -- and climbing
No but you can commit crimes against other people.
Like your post for example.
Really? Almost 1/3 of pot smokers are in just those 3 states?
#1. Duport had developed the nylon fiber. did'nt want to compete against hemp in the rope and textile markets.
#2. Mj was used by blacks more than whites. so, it would be easier to justify pursuing charges against a black person.
#3. the 3 largest groups opposing legalization are; alcohol producers, tobacco companies, and drug companies. Ads on tv from, "campaign for a drug free america". are paid for by these industries.
#4. law enforcement is able to, (acquire), for lack of a better word, a lot of money and possessions from Mj raids. and, you better believe they are aware of how much money they would lose to pot being legal.
if i had longer i'd go into more of the reasons. but, needless to say. it's american business and government agencies that gain from it not being legal that are the most opposed. and spew the most propaganda against legalization.
Don't forget Randolph Hearst and Senator McCarthy.....
Legalize now and stop the embarrassment, harassment, and per/prosecution!!!
So it would seem to follow that they would be MORE OK with allowing dangerous man-made methamphetamine & designer drugs than plants?
Confusing?
Our society already HAS the laws for dealing with misbehaviour during intoxication, for operating motor vehicles while intoxicated and for committing crimes.
Any of those laws cover the foolish people would become "plant intoxicated", OR "alcohol intoxicated"!
The COST to society from plant prohibition is ENORMOUS!
Folks, at a time when we seriously need to reduce wasteful government expenditure, it is "high" time to get factually serious about plant prohibition.
As insinuated by many posts here, this was a product that was used EXTENSIVELY in this country! Covered wagons heading west - hemp canvas. New England whaling ships - hemp rope. That's just a minute example of the flexibility of the hemp fiber! Hemp paper would reduce the number of trees to cut down, as the hemp plant grows SO MUCH FASTER than trees!
This product even is used to health benefits. Hemp oil has uses in foods.
The fact that THIS is illegal REALLY boggles the mind and makes you want to wonder "what is not right here"!
Hemp, when smoked or ingested, would give you a headache or stomache-ache more than cause any pyschoative reaction!
The hemp plant actually seems to replenish the soil, as opposed to use up the nutrients.
SO WHY IS IT ILLEGAL?
I bought a pair of hemp sneakers a couple years ago and they are better than any other pair of shoes I own. The soles are quite worn but the [hemp] material shows NO sign of wear. I've tossed them in the washer numerous times. They're light-colored so somewhat stained but I just use them now as 'romp-around' footwear - every weekend or when I need to run errands. And they don't look too bad, either!
Time to get over this ridiculous prohibition!!
The few states that have actually jumped ahead of the rest of the nation (and the Federal government), have insituted medical cannabis rules & regulations that WORK and they provide a new form of agriculture to gain tax revenue. WAKE UP AMERICA, this is just another agricultural product!
Talk about grasping at straws!! What "new opportunities" could there be? Like anything could be worse than what they already do. Hundreds to thousands of innocent Mexican people have died from the cartels brutal power mongering. If people want to become addicted and destroy themselves, they will find a way. No amount of laws or policies will stop that process. Give the American people some credit, we can intelligently decide these issues for ourselves.